Turkey referendum, 2017

[seb_pard]

Prediction: 48% yes, 52% no. I honestly think the Hayir camp can win. I believe that people don't react well to a campaign that is too focus on "me or chaos" and in the current Turkey's environment there's probable many Turkish that are afraid to express a support to the No side.

An important thing to add, before the November election in 2015 (when we saw an increase in the AKP support) there was an escalation of tension between the turkish government and the kurdish population that Erdogan used in his favor. The coup was last year but the tension has decreased substantially. I don't think (from what I'm reading) that the conflict with the EU helps Erdogan the same way the Kurdish conflict helped him in 2015.

[Tender Branson]

Election day !

So, how does voting and vote counting in Turkey work today ?

The Austrian ORF explains it:

There are 55.3 million eligible voters in Turkey today (2.9 million Turks abroad have already voted until last Sunday, turnout was 47%).

Polls are open from 7am to 5pm.

The ballot has "Evet" (Yes) on the left side with a white background and "Hayir" (No) on the right side with a brown background.

The voters are given a stamp with "Tercih" (Selection) on it to stamp their choice in the voting booths.

There are 167.000 precincts in Turkey (about 330 voters per precinct).

The 5 leading parties in each election district have the right to nominate election observers for each precinct to monitor the election process.

The election commission members from all parties have to sign the precinct result before it is sent to the district election commission, where the commission will count the ballots and send it to the National Election Commission via internet. The district and NEC are also manned with representatives from all major parties.

The sealed boxes with the votes of Turks abroad have been transported to Ankara and will be counted after 5pm by members of the NEC.

The OSCE will monitor the voting process today with 11 observers.

The first results will come a few hours after polls close, final results are expected before or around midnight.

There are also voting precincts in Turkey's prisons, which means that Erdogan's jailed critics can also vote (in theory, don't know if they let them ... ).

http://orf.at/stories/2387167/2386577

[Ronnie]

It is sad that we will probably see Turkey finish its slide into authoritarianism today.  I guess that it is a fitting conclusion to a country and society that nurtures majoritarianism.  We must allow liberal values to persist throughout the west, or else we will see many more Turkeys.

I predict Evet wins 56-44.

[Tender Branson]

More background on the voting process:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/55-mln-turks-to-vote-on-presidential-system.aspx?pageID=238&nID=112052&NewsCatID=338

In general, it seems the Turkish voting process is mostly OK and fair and mirrors the Austrian one with about 95%. Obviously, the heavy intimidation campaigns etc. cannot be compared.

I hope the Turkish voters have the balls today to reject dictator Erdogan, but I'm not really confident ...

[Tender Branson]

And the voting begins ...

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bold prediction: Yes wins by more than 60%. Unfortunately.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

"No" will win, but thanks to shenanigans with diaspora votes in the end "yes" will win. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/853527026787024896

2 people already dead.

[mgop]

no will win with 51.5%

[Beezer]

Which will then be readjusted to 48.5%.

[Lachi]

Exit poll of overseas voters has been released

YES: 38%
NO: 62%

[Tender Branson]

Exit poll of overseas voters has been released

YES: 38%
NO: 62%

That is wrong.

It's the exact opposite:

62% Yes (Evet)
38% No (Hayir)

http://www.internethaber.com/yurtdisi-referandum-sonuclari-belli-oldu-fark-inanilmaz-1768153h.htm

A result like you posted above wouldn't make much sense, because the overseas vote is usually even more pro-Erdogan than the mainland vote.

[Former President tack50]

Prediction: 48% yes, 52% no. I honestly think the Hayir camp can win. I believe that people don't react well to a campaign that is too focus on "me or chaos" and in the current Turkey's environment there's probable many Turkish that are afraid to express a support to the No side.

An important thing to add, before the November election in 2015 (when we saw an increase in the AKP support) there was an escalation of tension between the turkish government and the kurdish population that Erdogan used in his favor. The coup was last year but the tension has decreased substantially. I don't think (from what I'm reading) that the conflict with the EU helps Erdogan the same way the Kurdish conflict helped him in 2015.

Very relevant picture:



For those that don't speak Spanish:

Politician: Either us or chaos
Crowd: Chaos! Chaos!
Politician: It's ok, that's us as well

[jaichind]

Exit poll of overseas voters has been released

YES: 38%
NO: 62%

That is wrong.

It's the exact opposite:

62% Yes (Evet)
38% No (Hayir)

http://www.internethaber.com/yurtdisi-referandum-sonuclari-belli-oldu-fark-inanilmaz-1768153h.htm

A result like you posted above wouldn't make much sense, because the overseas vote is usually even more pro-Erdogan than the mainland vote.

Yes.  Back in 2014 Prez vote Overseas vote went Erdoğan 62.3% while Turkey proper went 51.65% for Erdoğan.  If the Overseas exit poll is accurate it seems to indicate a 52-48 victory for Yes overall.

[Tender Branson]

All polls close in 2 minutes.

[jaichind]

All polls close in 2 minutes.

Yes, I suspect no results will be out for at least an hour.  I guess they will not do this "Party 1" "Party 2" etc etc business this time.

[Tender Branson]

Results page from the Turkish television:

http://halkoylamasi.trthaber.com

Yeah, it will take at least 3-4 hours until there are some meaningful votes coming in.

[jaichind]

Sabah's link is

http://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/turkiye/referandum-sonuclari-turkiye-geneli-iste-il-il-2017-secim-sonuclari-sorgulama-sayfasi

Sabah is pro-AKP so if the results are looking good I think this site will have the fastest count.

[Tender Branson]

Ankara's (AKP) mayor tweets that YES is ahead by a huge margin ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems this page has a live-count of precincts counted and turnout.

http://www.haberturk.com

So far, 14% of precincts are counted and turnout is 83%.

Actual yes or no votes will only be released after 9pm local time.

[jaichind]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

[Tender Branson]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

This would not surprise me. I predicted Yes would win with ~60%.

And the Sabah reporters are usually well-informed when it comes to this ...

[jaichind]

Some reporter from Sabah is tweeting that so far it is Yes with around 65% with around 10% of the vote in.

This would not surprise me. I predicted Yes would win with ~60%.

And the Sabah reporters are usually well-informed when it comes to this ...

Back in 2015 Nov elections with 10% of the vote in AKP was at 60% of the vote but ended up with 49% of the vote.  So if it is Yes at around 65% with 10% of the vote that would imply a 54/46 victory if the regional reporting biases are the same as 2015.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fingers crossed that the results are inflated.

[jaichind]

15% of the vote counted.  Yes/No seems to be at 65/35