How Clinton lost Michigan - and blew the election

[Torie]

For those of us who supported Clinton, and want to get further depressed, this article is just perfect!

Here is the ultimate money quote:

"But there also were millions approved for transfer from Clinton’s campaign for use by the DNC — which, under a plan devised by Brazile to drum up urban turnout out of fear that Trump would win the popular vote while losing the electoral vote, got dumped into Chicago and New Orleans, far from anywhere that would have made a difference in the election."

I guess that is what might happen if you think you have the election in the bag. Work on architectural details, and ignore the cracks in the foundation. The facade is the thing. Just ask Potemkin.

[Blair]

Very strange was just about to post this; with that exact same quote!

It's absolutely amazing; I'd pay good money to just read the internal emails/staff chat from the Clinton campaign because it I'm sure there's stories like this for every lost state.

The thing about dumping money into Chicago really sums up what I, and a lot of others thought- that we should focus on winning the Senate+flipping as many house districts. I mean I spend most of October worrying that we'd tie the Senate.

People have been talking about Russia a lot recently but frankly if you have 1.2 billion in the bank, and spend years talking about your ground game then you really need to look at what happened.

[136or142]

I don't dispute any of this, but Hillary Clinton would have lost even with winning Michigan.

[Shadows]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Long article - But some key paragraphs -

Operatives watched packets of real-time voter information piled up in bins at the coordinated campaign headquarters. The sheets were updated only when they got ripped, or soaked with coffee. Existing packets with notes from the volunteers, including highlighting how much Trump inclination there was among some of the white male union members the Clinton campaign was sure would be with her, were tossed in the garbage.

Michigan operatives relay stories like one about an older woman in Flint who showed up at a Clinton campaign office, asking for a lawn sign and offering to canvass, being told these were not “scientifically” significant ways of increasing the vote, and leaving, never to return.

“I’ve never seen a campaign like this,” said Virgie Rollins, a Democratic National Committee member and longtime political hand in Michigan who described months of failed attempts to get attention to the collapse she was watching unfold in slow-motion among women and African-American millennials.

Everybody could see Hillary Clinton was cooked in Iowa. So when, a week-and-a-half out, the Service Employees International Union started hearing anxiety out of Michigan, union officials decided to reroute their volunteers, giving a desperate team on the ground around Detroit some hope.

They started prepping meals and organizing hotel rooms.

SEIU — which had wanted to go to Michigan from the beginning, but been ordered not to — dialed Clinton’s top campaign aides to tell them about the new plan. According to several people familiar with the call, Brooklyn was furious.

Turn that bus around, the Clinton team ordered SEIU. Those volunteers needed to stay in Iowa to fool Donald Trump into competing there, not drive to Michigan, where the Democrat’s models projected a 5-point win through the morning of Election Day.

Michigan organizers were shocked. It was the latest case of Brooklyn ignoring on-the-ground intel and pleas for help in a race that they felt slipping away at the end.

On the morning of Election Day, internal Clinton campaign numbers had her winning Michigan by 5 points. By 1 p.m., an aide on the ground called headquarters; the voter turnout tracking system they’d built themselves in defiance of orders — Brooklyn had told operatives in the state they didn’t care about those numbers, and specifically told them not to use any resources to get them — showed urban precincts down 25 percent. Maybe they should get worried, the Michigan operatives said.

Nope, they were told. She was going to win by 5. All Brooklyn’s data said so.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

unless the article just reads "she didn't", it's wrong

[Inmate Trump]

If she had won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania then she would have won the election.

She lost each state by about 1% (or in Michigan's case, much less than).

We know that Russia had some level of interference in our election.  Factor #1.

James Comey, by coming out with the whole case reopening business when there was absolutely nothing to be found--all for partisan reasons--is what cost Hillary the election.

If Comey hadn't betrayed his service by interfering with the election, then that 1% she lost by would have no doubt swung her way.  We know that late deciders went to Trump; they would have been to Clinton if not for James Comey.

I'll buy that Trump was doing better in these states than expected.  I don't buy that it was the Clinton camp's fault she lost--outside forces cost her the election.

Trump won only by a cheat and hack of the system.

[136or142]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Not sure about that. Milwaukee County is nowhere near the percent of population to Wisconsin as Wayne County is to Michigan.  Milwaukee County is also nowhere near as Democratic.

[angus]

How Clinton lost Michigan - and blew the election  

Well, at least she blew something.  I hear her old man was having to sneak around to get his jollies.

Anyway, it's not a bad analysis, but it's unnecessary.  There were far more salient reasons to explain her loss.  For one thing, The Donald tapped into the anxiety of the rust belt workers.  For another, she was a poor choice.  You in particular may have trouble believing this, but many folks don't relate well to a devious, elderly lawyer with a criminal psychology.

[136or142]

How Clinton lost Michigan - and blew the election  

Well, at least she blew something.  I hear her old man was having to sneak around to get his jollies.

Anyway, it's not a bad analysis, but it's unnecessary.  There were far more salient reasons to explain her loss.  For one thing, The Donald tapped into the anxiety of the rust belt workers.  For another, she was a poor choice.  You in particular may have trouble believing this, but many folks don't relate well to a devious, elderly lawyer with a criminal psychology.

But, they voted for a devious, elderly businessman with a criminal psychology.

And who, unlike Hillary Clinton, has not only been criminally charged, but criminally convicted.

 Yeah, that makes sense.

[Torie]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Not sure about that. Milwaukee County is nowhere near the percent of population to Wisconsin as Wayne County is to Michigan.  Milwaukee County is also nowhere near as Democratic.

Perhaps Clinton should have spent more time hitting the white working class belt in medium sized towns across the tri-state rust belt, stressing bread and butter issues in some detail, and showed that she really cared about the slide in their social economic status, and disintegration of their family units, exacerbated by a mass opioid addiction. Beyond everything else, I think this cohort felt profoundly unloved by the public square - until Trump blew them wet kisses.

Just a thought.

[136or142]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Not sure about that. Milwaukee County is nowhere near the percent of population to Wisconsin as Wayne County is to Michigan.  Milwaukee County is also nowhere near as Democratic.

Perhaps Clinton should have spent more time hitting the white working class belt in medium sized towns across the trip-state rust belt, stressing bread and butter issues in some detail, and showed that she really cared about the slide in their social economic status, and disintegration of their family units, exacerbated by a mass opioid addiction. Beyond everything else, I think this cohort felt profoundly unloved by the public square - until Trump blew them wet kisses.

Just a thought.

Trump actually didn't blow them any kisses, wet or otherwise, as his cabinet selections are making thoroughly clear.  They're just genuinely stupid enough to believe that he did.

It was Hillary Clinton who had an economic plan with detail, as opposed to Trump's mindless sort of promises of high tariffs.

I dispute your last sentence as well, as you didn't actually express a valid thought.

[angus]

 Yeah, that makes sense.

hardly.  At least not to me, which is a big part of the reason I didn't vote for either of them.

Still, the three points I made are valid:  1.  She's a poor candidate  2.  Trump tapped into the electoral votes he needed in a clever way.  3.  This business about gaming the system isn't guaranteed to win with a candidate whose prime qualification is inevitability. 

[Beet]

Trump definitely blew them kisses - whether it's real or not is irrelevant, to the fact that he actually saw them. And that's more than establishment politicians for 30 years have been doing. Even if he goes back on every promise -- and he's far from doing that -- the very fact that they got your attention ('you' being the coastal elite) and showed you the big, unmistakable finger is enough.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Trump definitely blew them kisses - whether it's real or not is irrelevant, to the fact that he actually saw them. And that's more than establishment politicians for 30 years have been doing. Even if he goes back on every promise -- and he's far from doing that -- the very fact that they got your attention ('you' being the coastal elite) and showed you the big, unmistakable finger is enough.

0.3 points against a highly unpopular candidate.

[Torie]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Not sure about that. Milwaukee County is nowhere near the percent of population to Wisconsin as Wayne County is to Michigan.  Milwaukee County is also nowhere near as Democratic.

Perhaps Clinton should have spent more time hitting the white working class belt in medium sized towns across the trip-state rust belt, stressing bread and butter issues in some detail, and showed that she really cared about the slide in their social economic status, and disintegration of their family units, exacerbated by a mass opioid addiction. Beyond everything else, I think this cohort felt profoundly unloved by the public square - until Trump blew them wet kisses.

Just a thought.

Trump actually didn't blow them any kisses, wet or otherwise, as his cabinet selections are making thoroughly clear.  They're just genuinely stupid enough to believe that he did.

It was Hillary Clinton who had an economic plan with detail, as opposed to Trump's mindless sort of promises of high tariffs.

I dispute your last sentence as well, as you didn't actually express a valid thought.

Subjective perceptions matter more than objective facts here, as Beet noted. As Bill Clinton would tell you, you need to exude the vibe that you feel their pain. In short, the fact that Trump promised them the moon, when his policies (at least some of them, until when perhaps he changes them, since Trump really does not believe in much but himself), will just make their condition worse, and/or bankrupt the country, sending everybody down into the abyss, is irrelevant - at least for now.

Oh, just because you believe, and that it may even possibly be true, that I am an air-brain, does not necessarily mean that it is decorous for you to point that out. Just another thought of mine.

[136or142]

Trump definitely blew them kisses - whether it's real or not is irrelevant, to the fact that he actually saw them. And that's more than establishment politicians for 30 years have been doing. Even if he goes back on every promise -- and he's far from doing that -- the very fact that they got your attention ('you' being the coastal elite) and showed you the big, unmistakable finger is enough.

Well, some of them have already lost their health insurance. Is it a big enough unmistakable finger from me to say that I'm pleased this happened as they're now about to learn for themselves that actions have consequences?

Barack Obama did, in fact, try to pass a number of pieces of legislation that would have helped these people but was blocked by the Republican Congress.

It seems to me that these people are now going to see what happens when the real elite (people like Donald Trump) are in charge, and I think they deserve all the suffering their going to get.

[Beet]

Well, some of them have already lost their health insurance. Is it a big enough unmistakable finger from me to say that I'm pleased this happened as they're now about to learn for themselves that actions have consequences?

Markos, is that you?

[136or142]

Michigan was similar to WI & looking at the article, it could be argued that she could have easily won WI & MI

Not sure about that. Milwaukee County is nowhere near the percent of population to Wisconsin as Wayne County is to Michigan.  Milwaukee County is also nowhere near as Democratic.

Perhaps Clinton should have spent more time hitting the white working class belt in medium sized towns across the trip-state rust belt, stressing bread and butter issues in some detail, and showed that she really cared about the slide in their social economic status, and disintegration of their family units, exacerbated by a mass opioid addiction. Beyond everything else, I think this cohort felt profoundly unloved by the public square - until Trump blew them wet kisses.

Just a thought.

Trump actually didn't blow them any kisses, wet or otherwise, as his cabinet selections are making thoroughly clear.  They're just genuinely stupid enough to believe that he did.

It was Hillary Clinton who had an economic plan with detail, as opposed to Trump's mindless sort of promises of high tariffs.

I dispute your last sentence as well, as you didn't actually express a valid thought.

Subjective perceptions matter more than objective facts here, as Beet noted. As Bill Clinton would tell you, you need to exude the vibe that you feel their pain. In short, the fact that Trump promised them the moon, when his policies (at least some of them, until when perhaps he changes them, since Trump really does not believe in much but himself), will just make their condition worse, or bankrupt the country, sending every down into the abyss, is irrelevant - at least for now.

I already wrote that:  "They're just genuinely stupid enough to believe that he did (throw them kisses"


I don't know if you're an air-brain or not.  I know that post of yours had no valid points.

[136or142]

Well, some of them have already lost their health insurance. Is it a big enough unmistakable finger from me to say that I'm pleased this happened as they're now about to learn for themselves that actions have consequences?

Markos, is that you?

Are you one of the Redneck Justice Warriors who now thinks they're in charge?

The post on DailyKos was hardly the first to state this sentiment and I completely agree with it.  When it came time to everybody else expressing their disenfranchisement, virtually the entire Republican Party, including these people, had no sympathy, but now I'm supposed to have sympathy for these people  many of whom are genuinely deplorable?  As the song goes, for them 'my give a damn is busted.'

[136or142]

 Yeah, that makes sense.

hardly.  At least not to me, which is a big part of the reason I didn't vote for either of them.

Still, the three points I made are valid:  1.  She's a poor candidate  2.  Trump tapped into the electoral votes he needed in a clever way.  3.  This business about gaming the system isn't guaranteed to win with a candidate whose prime qualification is inevitability. 

Unethical and clever aren't the same thing.

[Beet]

These people, like people everyone, vote in their self interest. They vote for guys who speak their language. Trump did that, Hillary didn't, as simple as that. Hillary's poll-tested politician speak mumbo jumbo was so condescending.

You know what the most pathetic thing about all this is? These working class whites in MI, and PA, and WI were the last ones who stayed loyal to you. When the working class whites in the South and the West and in Appalachia left, the ones in the Upper Midwest stayed. They were your firewall, or tried to be, in the last 4 cycles. They faithfully pulled the party lever, even when you guys were doing nothing for them, for 20 years. And now they get to be the deplorables for not being dutiful little soldiers, ha ha.

[Young Conservative]

Their biggest mistake was trying to expand the map. Never try to expand the map, just solidify. a win by 20 Ev's is the same as by 400....any attempt at anything else is vanity. I understand wanting a cushion but they wanted a landslide....

[136or142]

These people, like people everyone, vote in their self interest. They vote for guys who speak their language. Trump did that, Hillary didn't, as simple as that. Hillary's poll-tested politician speak mumbo jumbo was so condescending.

You know what the most pathetic thing about all this is? These working class whites in MI, and PA, and WI were the last ones who stayed loyal to you. When the working class whites in the South and the West and in Appalachia left, the ones in the Upper Midwest stayed. They were your firewall, or tried to be, in the last 4 cycles. They faithfully pulled the party lever, even when you guys were doing nothing for them, for 20 years. And now they get to be the deplorables for not being dutiful little soldiers, ha ha.

Nothing?  So, Obamacare didn't extend health insurance to millions of these people?  (Passed without the vote of a single Republican, the ones who lie that they do care about them.)

The Americans Jobs Act that was blocked by Republicans:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/08/fact-sheet-american-jobs-act

Whether it is decorous or not, you are increasingly demonstrating that you are an air-brain.

If they vote in their self interest, then they must regard it as being in their self interest to lose their health care.  So, I'm happy that they must be happy that they lost it.

[Beet]

The election wasn't a referendum on the American Jobs Act or the Miners Protection Act. It was between Clinton and Trump. Clinton's case was that Trump shouldn't be president because he called a Hispanic lady fat. Maybe she should have campaigned more on jobs and health care for miners.

[Mr. Smith]

Eh, they could've just given up North Carolina and put everything into Florida and Arizona and foregone this entirely.