MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Dr. Arch]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national culture has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

[Chief Justice Keef]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

Matt Christman had a pretty good tweet today that reflected some thoughts in the back of my mind. Would Republican voters really reject a guy that beat the crap out of a news reporter from one of those "liberal media outlets" like The Guardian? They totally eat that s--t up.

[Matty]

He is speaking. lol

[Webnicz]

Very disappointed quist underperformed in his home of Flathead

[Suburbia]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national cultural has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

Come on Arch. You expect Americans not to be upset over 9/11?

[Yank2133]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

Nope sorry to break it to you but rural areas are finishing a turn red that has been happening since Reagan an now suburban areas are shifting blue. An like some reps would of been saying about rural voters with Reagan you are dead wrong on suburanties be only a temporary shift

Yeah, we are going through a political realignment right now.

[Dr. Arch]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national cultural has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

Come on Arch. You expect Americans not to be upset over 9/11?

I'll be as nice as possible and point out that I'm referring to the overwhelming failure that was the Iraq war and the "war on terrorism."

[Adam Griffin]

2014 turnout: 367,963
2016 turnout (est 80% of vote counted): 339,892

[Figueira]

Kyung Lah confirms more voters went out to vote Gianforte because of slamgate and it helped his performance on election day

I don't give a sh*t if it is "elitist" but that is deplorable

You don't need to not give a sh*t. It simply isn't elitist.

People should stop insulting working-class people by referring to basic human decency as "elitist."

[smoltchanov]

Well, what i originally expected. Republican margin from 2016 cut in half, but district remains Republican. Quist had enough personal problems and baggage, and Gianforte latest scandal came ... well, too late. I expect somewhat similar situation in SC-05 (54-55% Norman and 42-43% -Parnell). The best Democratic hope remains GA-06, but even it will be close. So, while there is some disiilusionment with Trump, it's too early to talk about "wave".

[136or142]

Big Horn County has tightened.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If MT chooses to elect a criminal congressman, then they deserve him. It's a sad thing to witness.

This is why you lost.

Montana's newly elected congressman may have assaulted someone, but a Democratic poster said voters deserve who they vote for, and I found that mean, so Democrats are the real bad guys!!!!

I don't know many other Republicans throwing punches, but I sure have seen a lot of Democrats do it. That is far worse than your party's arrogance and collective cognitive disconnect.

[Adam Griffin]

Piano's down to a 6.4-point lead.

[MT Treasurer]

Assuming Quist wins Big Horn and Hill, my prediction map will have turned out to be pretty accurate.

I think an important lesson that can be learned from this is that we should definitely be more careful before calling any Republican (or Democratic) candidate who makes a misstep another Akin. Granted, in this case it was something extreme, but I've seen people on this forum say that Kevin Cramer is another Akin just because he said something ridiculous about women's outfits. Or Josh Hawley, for that matter. With the electorate becoming increasingly more polarized, I think these things might not matter that much any more, or at least they won't have the impact they would have had 15 years ago or so.

[Sumner 1868]

We can win these voters for sure (here's me being optimistic), but it'll take 3rd way Clintonite centrists like Jim Justice, John Bel Edwards, and Joe Manchin, not far-left purity troll-endorsed candidates who are foisted on the party by the likes of ssuperflash and jfern.

Ah, yes, let's just keep doing the exact same thing we did in 2016. That worked out really well.

Suburban whites across the board are more liberal then rural whites, since a good portion of them are college educated.

If you want to win over rural voters, you are going to have to shift to the right on both economics and  social issues and I know that is something you don't want to do.

You really think Democrats couldn't successfully appeal to rural voters stricken by massive economic anxiety with policies that involved broad wealth redistribution?

Nope sorry to break it to you but rural areas are finishing a turn red that has been happening since Reagan an now suburban areas are shifting blue. An like some reps would of been saying about rural voters with Reagan you are dead wrong on suburanties be only a temporary shift

What? Rural areas were Republican long before Reagan.

[Kamala]

Gianforte apologizes to Jacobs.

An admission of guilt?

[Shadows]

A reminder that the DCCC spent a tenth on this race what they've spent in GA-6 so far.

Quist has also raised millions of dollars, getting a fundraising advantage over The Piano Man.

Quiet, it just easier to blame the DCCC then to admit that left-wing populism isn't some magic elixir that is going to win over rural voters.  

Is that the new meme, that Bernie can't win rural whites?

All of Bernie-backed candidates (outside of the NH delegate) has lost and in some cases they underperformed Clinton.

You continue to make false statements like Trump. VT LT Gov. was Bernie backed who won when the establishment candidate got Gov. Lost.

Pramila Jayapal won in Washington (for Congress). Nanette Barragan won in CA-44 (for Congress).
Jamie Raskin (1st timer) won in Maryland (for Congress).

And I could go on about Gabbard or Kaptor or Grijavlva or Ellison, but they have been elected before. So let's leave them out.

Rick Nolan won by 2K votes in MN-08 (for US Congress) in a district which Trump won 54-39% in 2016. He massively over-performed Hillary !

Apart from that you people winning multiple elections for State Senate, State Rep, City Council, etc.

But you will keep making false statements like Trump & you will sh*t on Bernie because you are a political hack !

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Fellow forum lefties pls stop fighting amongst yourselves and become hardcore misanthropes like me.  Realize that most Americans are terrible

It's hard to not see it that way at times. I wonder if the national cultural has really shifted that far from the one that fostered:

1) Japanese-American Internment Camps
2) Trail of Tears
3) Annihilation of Native Americans
4) Colonization and depreciation of territories and citizens therein
5) 9/11 Response
6) Overall regime change
7) Preying on those who need the most

The list can go on and on. There is a serious rot. I was raised Christian, and my parents pretty much taught me the polar opposite of all of that (and they were conservative by PR standards).

I was also raised Christian, still am.  Thought about becoming a pastor.  It took me to realize that I'm a terrible Christian as well as a terrible person in general to see that it's not the job for me.  But if any country needs meaningful spiritual revival, it's this one, and American Christianity needs to be taken back from the idolaters and the hypocrites.

[Hindsight was 2020]

If MT chooses to elect a criminal congressman, then they deserve him. It's a sad thing to witness.

This is why you lost.

Montana's newly elected congressman may have assaulted someone, but a Democratic poster said voters deserve who they vote for, and I found that mean, so Democrats are the real bad guys!!!!

I don't know many other Republicans throwing punches, but I sure have seen a lot of Democrats do it. That is far worse than your party's arrogance and collective cognitive disconnect.

Has it ever been praised with the exception of Spencer? Dude Rush an Drudge as well as numerous Fox hosts are publicly praising what he did say what you will about Berkley but Obama, Bernie, an Warren have all publicly condemned it an the "safe space" phenomenon in general

[Suburbia]

Gianforte wins Montana congressional at large special election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who else has a feeling that Tester will lose in 2018?

[Suburbia]

Quist should run again in 2018.

[Thomas Jackson]

Sooo, all the over-confidence from you guys last night and even before last night, all the predictions of a quist 2 point or 3 point win, they were all fake hope?

This happens all the time on here. You guys hype up dem chances, and then when it actually doesn't happen, you pretend you never had any "true" hope for a win.

While I generally agree with you, Atlas wasn't the only place that thought this thing was going to have a serious impact on the race. I think in this case it's fair to say Quist would have done a lot better had he actually run a good campaign, but yeah... it also shows us that polarization is still a thing.

So yes, Republicans outperformed everyone's expectations this time (I should have stuck with my original prediction and not changed it at the last minute), but I'm still taking nothing for granted in this goddamn state. Harry Enten should feel kind of stupid for saying that Tester is going to be very happy about this result, though. Congrats to Mr. Daines, who won the Daines vs. Tester/Bullock proxy war.

I even thought Quist was a shoo-in after last night, but I'm happy that the Montana voters realized that a vote for Quist was a vote for 3000 murders a day, regardless of any personal flaws in Gianforte.  And, we're not trying to elect our pastor or role model, but rather someone who will vote to lead our country in the right direction, and I am confident that Gianforte will vote in the right way.

Doesn't really fit here, but a fetus is not a human, moron.

After all... human women give birth to monkeys, sea urchins, dolphins and all sorts of things.

Fine, a first trimester fetus is not a human.  You know, the trimester when 99% of abortions really occur, whatever you idiot Republicans lie to each other.

So sometime after the first trimester, the horse inside the human woman, morphs into a human.

That's an amazing take on the reproduction and life cycle ..... of humans.

[Suburbia]

Who else has a feeling that Tester will lose in 2018?

50-50 chance.

[Kamala]

Who else has a feeling that Tester will lose in 2018?

Well, if he feels the race is getting too close, he can always bodyslam a reporter.