MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Kamala]

The brightest timeline would have both Quist and Ossoff win, showing that both folksy Berniecrats and Bernie-declared "non-progressive" technocratic moderates have a place in the Democratic Party. Rather than shifting left or right, the party ought to shift out.

[heatcharger]

Quist is sucking big time in Cascade and Yellowstone. I really have no idea why. Things could change of course.

[_]

Will you guys stop automatically assuming things?  Its way too early to make a call.

[Pericles]

I predict Quist will win.

[TheSaint250]

Quist leading by 1% with 160k votes on DecisionDeskHQ

Same with NYT

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Quist leading by 1% with 160k votes on DecisionDeskHQ

NYT has more updated numbers

[ApatheticAustrian]

one can easily see atm that GF is more likey to match his benchmarks.

no need to panic about this, just politics.

[Gass3268]

Early vote in Montana leans Republican, calm down.

Since when?

This was from this morning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/867733358201237506

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte is doing very well so far.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

The brightest timeline would have both Quist and Ossoff win, showing that both folksy Berniecrats and Bernie-declared "non-progressive" technocratic moderates have a place in the Democratic Party. Rather than shifting left or right, the party ought to shift out.

More likely is that both will lose by right margins and each faction will snipe at one another instead of realizing that a percentage point or two doesn't change the underlying dynamic. Mainly:

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[Nyvin]

I knew this race was being overblown!   It always was a lot of hot air expecting Quist to win...

You're behind on the times this race is looking good.

It's all the bigger counties that are reporting, which is where Quist will most likely do the best.   He would need to build up quite a margin now in order to not get stomped by all the small rural counties that votes 70%+ GOP later on.

Quist is improving from the Trump numbers,  so that is something good for Dems.

[McGovernForPrez]

Early vote in Montana leans Republican, calm down.

Since when?

This was from this morning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/867733358201237506

I hope you're right about this, but it seems contrary to the Bullock results. Maybe that's because Bullock was running in a presidential year and EV tended to heavily favor Hillary.

[MT Treasurer]

Quist is doing what he has to do in Gallatin, Missoula and Ravalli, but Gianforte is overperforming everywhere else. Also, Gianforte is leading in Lake.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Rob Quist
Dem.
84,573   47.3%   
Greg Gianforte
Rep.
83,808   46.9   
Mark Wicks
Lib.
10,275   5.8   
20% reporting (138 of 681 precincts)

Missoula
Great Falls
Billings
Helena

[The_Doctor]

Gianforte is doing very well so far.

Any conclusions you can draw for us right now based on the results? Like, is it clear to say Gianaforte is on track to win or are these results still in flux?

[libertpaulian]

Quist leads by only 700 votes or so.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

6/20 precincts in Lake reporting. 54-41 Gianforte.

[Shadows]

                          Quist vs Clinton

Yellowstone -         36.6       31.4
Gallatin -               53.8      45.1
Missoula -              61.3      51.9
Cascade -              42.8       35.2
Lewis & Clark -       52.8       41
Ravalli -                 37.0      27.6
Deer Lodge -          62.4      48.9
Jefferson -             37.5       29.8
Big Horn -              36.8      49.4
Chouteau -             37.0      28.1

[Ronnie]

I think it's entirely possible Gianforte wins by double digits in the end.  Who could have seen that coming?

[RI]

Gianforte's hitting his targets to win by ~7, but it's early.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This is still looking like a Gianforte win.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Not feeling great about these numbers at all, but we'll see.

ALSO WHY DOES MY WIFI CONNECTION WAIT UNTIL NOW TO START FCKING UP

WHY

[henster]

Nothing matters anymore I hope a Dem candidate knocks the sh*t out of a FOX News or Breitbart reporter since it's acceptable to voters.

[History505]

Quist leading 0.4% ahead of Gianforte with 20% in.

[MT Treasurer]

Gianforte is doing very well so far.

Any conclusions you can draw for us right now based on the results? Like, is it clear to say Gianaforte is on track to win or are these results still in flux?

It's way too early to call (especially since the election day vote might be more Democratic than usual), but I think it's much better for Gianforte than expected.