MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I warned you guys before. Just wait until you see cinyc's Google poll, you're going to be even more surprised, haha.

aren't you all the time doubting a big republican advantage and talking about a narrow gianforte win?

Huh, I'm not sure what you mean by that? I am still doubting a big Republican advantage, but I warned you guys about these polls and all the confusion they will cause before election day.

Oh, and needless to say, there is zero chance that Quist will win by 15 points either. These Google polls are obviously biased in favor of Ds.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still thinking Quist wins by a plurality and 2+.

[cinyc]

Oh, and needless to say, there is zero chance that Quist will win by 15 points either. These Google polls are obviously biased in favor of Ds.

I'm not sure these Google polls are biased in favor of anyone in particular.  They're just bad.  Remember - I got a plausible result in line with Emerson in April (Gianforte +10 weighted, compared to Emerson's G+15), after getting a ludicrous Quist+17 in March.  The two recent 60ish sample polls had Quist romping in one and Gianforte in a squeaker in another.  And who knows?  If someone else commissions a Google Survey in between now and the election, it could show Gianforte up big.

I just think they're trash.  People who are reading the newspaper articles are randomly clicking on anything to get to the article.

And then there are ways that they make sense.  For instance, bellwether Lake County is polling pretty much on par with the whole state in this poll.  Granted, the sample size is small, and it all may be happenstance, but it's interesting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Quist has massive momentum, if only he can turn them into votes...

[MT Treasurer]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

[GlobeSoc]

What does the relatively High turnout mean?

[cinyc]

What does the relatively High turnout mean?

Absentee turnout so far is higher than 2014, but lower than 2016.

[OneJ]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

I believe that indicates from the previous day's % of ballots returned.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

As of 5/22:

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 65.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 67.4% of mail-ins returned (+4.6)

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 62.5% of mail-ins returned (+3.8 )

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 71.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.4)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 71.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 62.3% of mail-ins returned (+3.1)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 73.4% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 69.6% of mail-ins returned (+4.7)

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 68.1% of mail-ins returned (+1.4)

STATEWIDE: 67.2% of mail-ins returned

Added the change (5/21-5/22) in brackets.

Can I please ask what the "+" numbers towards the end in parenthesis are?

I believe that indicates from the previous day's % of ballots returned.

Thanks.

[Angrie]

Well, it is interesting to see the Google Consumer Survey, even if it is probably not going to be reliable.

[The Other Castro]

Senate Majority Pac (D) has increased its last minute ad buy from $25K to $150K for the final days leading up to the voting, including broadcast and digital media.

[rob in cal]

   Did anyone find out what % the Gravis poll was saying had already voted? 

[Old Man Willow]

I doubt Quist cracks 46%.

[mattocaster6]

I have another 226 sample size google poll in the field, 113/226 responses in so far and should be completed by tomorrow (cynyc has already seen it).

All I will say about this poll is that it's looking tighter than cynyc's most recent google poll so far.

[cinyc]

I have another 226 sample size google poll in the field, 113/226 responses in so far and should be completed by tomorrow (cynyc has already seen it).

All I will say about this poll is that it's looking tighter than cynyc's most recent google poll so far.

Let's hope it gets completed tomorrow!  Otherwise, you'll be polling on election day.

[Crumpets]

I doubt Quist cracks 46%.

Trump didn't crack 46%, but here we are...

Seriously, though. I suspect the Libertarian candidate will perform pretty well this time around. I wholly suspect whoever wins will probably still be significantly below 50%

[Angrie]

I doubt Quist cracks 46%.

Trump didn't crack 46%, but here we are...

Seriously, though. I suspect the Libertarian candidate will perform pretty well this time around. I wholly suspect whoever wins will probably still be significantly below 50%

One could imagine it turning out something like MT-SEN 2012

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2012&fips=30&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=1

   Jon Tester   Democratic    236,123    48.58%
   Denny Rehberg   Republican    218,051    44.86%
   Dan Cox   Libertarian    31,892    6.56%

[Webnicz]

My Google Survey is complete.   The poll is available here, along with my weighting spreadsheet with weighted crosstabs.

573 total respondents were polled from May 21-23.  Of the 573, 385 chose a candidate.  The question asked was:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Weighted by Age and Sex (to the November 2014 CPS for actual voters) and Region (West vs. East), the Results were:

Quist 54%
Gianforte 39%
Wicks 7%

Or Quist +15.

Raw, it was Quist+14.  Simple Weighted by only sex and age, like we've done for other polls this cycle, it was Quist +16.

As usual for our Google Surveys, the poll showed a big East/West Divide.  Western Montanans (n=181) preferred Quist by 32 points (weighted by age, sex and region and raw).  Eastern Montanans (n=134) picked Gianforte by 4 (5 raw).

Recall that I've split Eastern and Western Montana this way in our Google Polling:


There is a gender gap, with men supporting Quist by 12 (weighted)/7 (raw), and women supporting Quist by 23 (weighted)/26 (raw).  Every age group except 45-54 year olds backed Quist.  And, as in other Google Polls, there is a huge Suburban/Rural gap, with suburban voters backing Quist by 24/21, and rurals only going Quist by 1/3.  Rural voters made up 37% of the weighted and raw samples.

More, perhaps, to come.  But this poll looks like as big an outlier as Gravis', unfortunately.  Average the two polls together, and we might be on to something.

Can Quist really win Flathead County

[McGovernForPrez]

My Google Survey is complete.   The poll is available here, along with my weighting spreadsheet with weighted crosstabs.

573 total respondents were polled from May 21-23.  Of the 573, 385 chose a candidate.  The question asked was:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Weighted by Age and Sex (to the November 2014 CPS for actual voters) and Region (West vs. East), the Results were:

Quist 54%
Gianforte 39%
Wicks 7%

Or Quist +15.

Raw, it was Quist+14.  Simple Weighted by only sex and age, like we've done for other polls this cycle, it was Quist +16.

As usual for our Google Surveys, the poll showed a big East/West Divide.  Western Montanans (n=181) preferred Quist by 32 points (weighted by age, sex and region and raw).  Eastern Montanans (n=134) picked Gianforte by 4 (5 raw).

Recall that I've split Eastern and Western Montana this way in our Google Polling:


There is a gender gap, with men supporting Quist by 12 (weighted)/7 (raw), and women supporting Quist by 23 (weighted)/26 (raw).  Every age group except 45-54 year olds backed Quist.  And, as in other Google Polls, there is a huge Suburban/Rural gap, with suburban voters backing Quist by 24/21, and rurals only going Quist by 1/3.  Rural voters made up 37% of the weighted and raw samples.

More, perhaps, to come.  But this poll looks like as big an outlier as Gravis', unfortunately.  Average the two polls together, and we might be on to something.

Can Quist really win Flathead County

If anybody can it's him. It's his home county.

[cinyc]

Can Quist really win Flathead County

If anybody can it's him. It's his home county.

This Google Poll seems to think he can - but the number of respondents from there was only 16.  That's too small a sample.  And my poll is likely crap.

If I have time tonight, I might try to look at all the Google Polls we have so far to see if the Quist-Flathead trend continues throughout.  I only started county crosstabs with this poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can Quist really win Flathead County

If anybody can it's him. It's his home county.

This Google Poll seems to think he can - but the number of respondents from there was only 16.  That's too small a sample.  And my poll is likely crap.

If I have time tonight, I might try to look at all the Google Polls we have so far to see if the Quist-Flathead trend continues throughout.  I only started county crosstabs with this poll.

These polls are much appreciated, but I have to think that you'd never make it as a professional pollster.  You actually admit it when your polls are likely crap.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?

Because that's what Bullock chose.

[cinyc]

Why the heck is this on a Thursday again?

The governor had to name a date that was 85-100 days from the vacancy.  He supposedly chose the earliest possible date, which ended up being the Thursday before Memorial Day Weekend.  He could have chosen the Tuesday after Memorial Day, but that could have caused logistical issues as well, with people on vacation.  The only other Tuesday in the period would have been June 6.

Either way, holding the election on the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend isn't ideal for turnout.