MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.

Yes, Google Surveys allows 2-10 questions, but the cost is 10x as much as asking 1 question. 

There was a coupon offer for people conducting their first poll ($50 off your first poll), at least as of a few weeks ago.  I'm not sure if the offer is still ongoing.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.

Yes, Google Surveys allows 2-10 questions, but the cost is 10x as much as asking 1 question. 

There was a coupon offer for people conducting their first poll ($50 off your first poll), at least as of a few weeks ago.  I'm not sure if the offer is still ongoing.

How much does it cost to put a 1 question poll out in the field?

[cinyc]

^Do they allow two questions? I'm interested in a hypothetical Tester vs. Fox Senate matchup, but that should probably wait until after May 25.

Yes, Google Surveys allows 2-10 questions, but the cost is 10x as much as asking 1 question. 

There was a coupon offer for people conducting their first poll ($50 off your first poll), at least as of a few weeks ago.  I'm not sure if the offer is still ongoing.

How much does it cost to put a 1 question poll out in the field?

For a state poll, $0.15 per respondent, so $75 for my 500-respondent poll.  Past practice shows that a good number of people will choose the "I'm not likely to vote option" (however worded), so I'll probably end up with 300-400 decided voters to weight.

[McGovernForPrez]

On the topic of turnout, doesn't the outcome of the mail-in ballot scandal affect that partially. If they do choose to use them that might give Democrats a better turnout edge.

[cinyc]

On the topic of turnout, doesn't the outcome of the mail-in ballot scandal affect that partially. If they do choose to use them that might give Democrats a better turnout edge.

I'm weighting the results to 2014 Montana actual voters and 2014 Montana registered voters, as reported by the November 2014 Census Population Survey.  So far, there isn't much of difference between using either metric - about two points in the most recent data dump.  167 of the expected 500+ respondents have responded so far.  105 of them didn't choose the "I'm not likely to vote" option.  The overall results so far are... interesting.

[The Other Castro]

On the topic of turnout, doesn't the outcome of the mail-in ballot scandal affect that partially. If they do choose to use them that might give Democrats a better turnout edge.

I'm weighting the results to 2014 Montana actual voters and 2014 Montana registered voters, as reported by the November 2014 Census Population Survey.  So far, there isn't much of difference between using either metric - about two points in the most recent data dump.  167 of the expected 500+ respondents have responded so far.  105 of them didn't choose the "I'm not likely to vote" option.  The overall results so far are... interesting.

Completely random guess: Wicks the Libertarian is doing unusually well and Quist is leading.

[McGovernForPrez]

On the topic of turnout, doesn't the outcome of the mail-in ballot scandal affect that partially. If they do choose to use them that might give Democrats a better turnout edge.

I'm weighting the results to 2014 Montana actual voters and 2014 Montana registered voters, as reported by the November 2014 Census Population Survey.  So far, there isn't much of difference between using either metric - about two points in the most recent data dump.  167 of the expected 500+ respondents have responded so far.  105 of them didn't choose the "I'm not likely to vote" option.  The overall results so far are... interesting.

Completely random guess: Wicks the Libertarian is doing unusually well and Quist is leading.

I wouldn't be surprised. It doesn't seem like Montanans particularly like Gianforte. Running in two back to back elections just seems desperate. The public lands issue might have even caused a major backlash there against Republicans.

[GlobeSoc]

What would be the county map for a 3-point Quist win? Where would he over and underperform the generic winning D in the state?

[heatcharger]

What would be the county map for a 3-point Quist win? Where would he over and underperform the generic winning D in the state?

I would imagine it would be almost identical to Bullock's victory map.

[cinyc]

My Google Surveys poll is about half done (274/500).  Without spoiling the results, which still can change, there are some trends:

-Right now, "I am not likely to vote in this election" is "winning".  Out of the 274 respondents polled so far, only 176 chose a candidate.  Hopefully, we'll get up to 300 usable respondents by the final tally.
-There is a definite regional divide between Western Montana and Eastern Montana, which is not terribly surprising, though the magnitude of the divide may be.
-Some people are going to be very, very happy with the results, if they hold.  Others, not so much.

Google Surveys hasn't broken down my results by imputed rural/suburban/urban status or imputed income yet, which is disappointing.  They've only given me sex, age and town location data to break down.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

cinyc, how would you grade Google Surveys for the presidential election?  It was fairly off generally, if memory serves.

[cinyc]

cinyc, how would you grade Google Surveys for the presidential election?  It was fairly off generally, if memory serves.

I'd give the one-question Google Surveys polls that Atlas Users conducted a D+.

A lot were wrong, but most were taken a week or more before the election.  IIRC, the TN poll was right on, and my last-minute NM poll wasn't terrible, when properly weighted.  But we had a lot of stinkers.  Perhaps this is because the one-question methodology just doesn't work.

RRH partially used a one-question Google Survey poll when it polled the VT Governor's race (in order to reach more 18-45s) - and their overall poll ended up okay.  I'm not sure how well Google's in-house, poorly weighted, multi-question, multi-state polls performed.  They were all over the place, but some had very small sample sizes and you'd expect that.

Google Surveys uses different methods to reach users.  They tell you the type of website (News, Reference, etc.) or mobile app used to reach each respondent.  Unfortunately, the different methodologies often lead to different results, and it's not clear that, for example, respondents reading News websites are a better reflection of the electorate than those using Google's mobile app.  I'm not sure that there is a rhyme or reason to which method Google uses more of to reach users except that they can - and I don't know whether any type should be given more weight.  Probably not.

[Skill and Chance]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Tester already has a significant advantage.

[Skill and Chance]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Tester already has a significant advantage.

Yeah, if Tester goes down, this is a 2002 style minor R wave.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

[publicunofficial]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

Every election carries forward forever. At least Gianforte losing won't spawn 100,000 thinkpieces on how the Republican Party needs to change every single thing about themselves if they want to ever win again.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

The way Feingold was viewed in 2009 was "Well maybe he could be beaten, but not with this crop of candidates". Then he lost the next year. People saying Brown is okay because Mandel does seem similar.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It doesn't mean Tester is safe, but it's going to be hard to find a good attack line against the guy. He's pro-coal and pro-gun.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

The way Feingold was viewed in 2009 was "Well maybe he could be beaten, but not with this crop of candidates". Then he lost the next year. People saying Brown is okay because Mandel does seem similar.

For the record, there's a solid case that Brown is okay because Brown. He's a solid fundraiser, a pretty good tactician (or at least knows to hire good campaign managers), and a good fit for his state going into a D favored year. Plus, as a "less" vulnerable incumbent, I'd imagine a lot of money is going to go towards taking down Donnelly and McCaskill, as opposed to the tidal wave of GOP money that came down on OH in 2016.

Add in Mandel, and that just adds to the case that Brown might be okay.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The worst thing about a Quist victory will be the national media interpreting this as a "rejection of the Republican Party" and people here saying that Tester is safe in 2018, etc. Ugh, it's going to be so awful.

I think Tester is in the best position of the 5 Romney state Dems up in 2018.  It's a close call with Manchin, but WV is just so far gone now.  If Tester doesn't win, none of them do IMO.  Sherrod Brown might even be more likely to lose, as he seems eerily similar to Feingold's position in 2010.

Brown's position isn't even remotely close to Feingold's; the Ohio Senate race (assuming Mandel is the Republican nominee) starts off lean D and could conceivably enter solid likely D territory by Election Day.

The way Feingold was viewed in 2009 was "Well maybe he could be beaten, but not with this crop of candidates". Then he lost the next year. People saying Brown is okay because Mandel does seem similar.

Brown would've beaten Tiberi and Stivers too, it'd just be closer.  Brown's also a very strong incumbent and far more skilled politician than Feingold.  And then there's the fact that Feingold was running in a huge Republican wave year.

[Holmes]

My Google Surveys poll is about half done (274/500).  Without spoiling the results, which still can change, there are some trends:

-Right now, "I am not likely to vote in this election" is "winning".  Out of the 274 respondents polled so far, only 176 chose a candidate.  Hopefully, we'll get up to 300 usable respondents by the final tally.
-There is a definite regional divide between Western Montana and Eastern Montana, which is not terribly surprising, though the magnitude of the divide may be.
-Some people are going to be very, very happy with the results, if they hold.  Others, not so much.

Google Surveys hasn't broken down my results by imputed rural/suburban/urban status or imputed income yet, which is disappointing.  They've only given me sex, age and town location data to break down.

I'm gonna guess a very slight Quist lead if there's a really sharp regional divide and western Montana is coming through for him.

[MAINEiac4434]

The problem is that the GOP can't tie Quist to President Clinton. I'd be surprised if the election was decided by more than 5 points. Honestly, I'm really not feeling optimistic about this race - Tossup/Tilt D seems like the most appropriate rating at this point. And tying Quist to Bernie Sanders and the far left isn't going to work here.

Sanders only won MT 52-44. It's not the south, but it's not KS or UT either.

That's not exactly a fair comparison. KS and UT were caucus states, while MT had a primary after AP declared Clinton had clinched the nomination.

TN Vol, any reason why you think Quist is favored? I don't doubt that he'll make it competitive, but it seems like Montana hasn't had a Democratic House representative in a long time.

Not to mention that every single Sanders staffer not a victim of the April 27th downsizing was in California at the time.

Not to mention not to mention Hillary had people on the ground there and won the same-day primary of a neighboring state (SD).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I will say a few things about that GCS poll before everyone freaks out:

- Both candidates have a floor of around 45%. So when there are that many undecideds, you should take it with a grain of salt.
- I think these polls are too D-friendly. Quist is slightly favored, yes, but it's unlikely that he will win by double digits or even high single digits. I believe Castro's GCS poll had McCaskill winning by almost 10 points, which is a bit D-friendly as well.

I think right now a result like this is the most likely outcome:

50% Quist (D)
46% Gianforte (R)
4% Wicks (L)

I could be wrong, but I don't see Quist winning by more than 5 or 6 points.

I think that there's probably a 45% floor for both candidates when a representative sample of the state shows up to the polls. I think it's an open question whether that will happen or not.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I think that there's probably a 45% floor for both candidates when a representative sample of the state shows up to the polls. I think it's an open question whether that will happen or not.

Nah, low turnout doesn't always favor Republicans. In states like MT and WV, it often favors Democrats. Also, the Democratic base seems to be a little more excited right now, but who knows.

If Quist wins, I wonder who will run against him in 2018? Maybe Buttrey? I think Quist would be more likely to win reelection than Tester, honestly.

I was suggesting more that it could swing either way a bit more dramatically, not just towards the GOP.

In fact, given that Gianforte was already a loser in the past 6 months, and appears to not have learned a lesson about negative campaigning with lots of out of state money, I could easily imagine dissatisfied or unmotivated GOP voters staying home.