Why Did LBJ win Florida, the Upper South, and Idaho in 1964?

[Calthrina950]

My question is as in the title. Why did Johnson win these particular states over Barry Goldwater, considering the relative closeness of the margins (especially in Idaho and Florida)? Why was there not the backlash in the other Southern States that might have given Goldwater more electoral and popular votes?

[White Trash]

The Dixiecrat machine wasn't nearly as strong in Florida and the Upper South as it was in the Deep South.

[MIKESOWELL]

In reality, there was a backlash in the upper southern states against the Democrats. It just wasn't nearly as strong in these regions to flip them to Goldwater.

[Calthrina950]

In reality, there was a backlash in the upper southern states against the Democrats. It just wasn't nearly as strong in these regions to flip them to Goldwater.

How much of a backlash was there? What were Johnson's margins among white voters in those upper states. How did he manage to win Florida, considering that backlash and the fact that Goldwater won more counties than him? Also, the closeness in Idaho?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cause Florida is really not a "Southern" state, plus the GOP/Dixiecrats were not strong enough in the non-Panhandle region to flip it to Goldwater.

Miami-Dade and West-Central Florida saved Johnson in the state.

[Sumner 1868]

There was a civil rights backlash in Florida, but Kennedy-Goldwater votes were cancelled out by Nixon-LBJ votes from other areas. According to the book Patchwork Nation: Sectionalism and Political Change in American Politics, only 57.7 percent of 1960 Kennedy supporters in Florida voted for Johnson, while 54.6 percent of 1960 Nixon supporters in Florida voted for Goldwater.

[Calthrina950]

But what about Idaho? Why was the margin between Goldwater and Johnson so close? And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

[Sumner 1868]

But what about Idaho? Why was the margin between Goldwater and Johnson so close?

Southern Idaho had a bit of a swing towards Goldwater, probably because civil rights wasn't especially popular in Idaho. This was somewhat cancelled out by Johnson improving in the traditionally Democratic Panhandle.

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Fears Goldwater would end various public works projects and other federal programs trumped race in much of the South that year.

[TDAS04]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

[kcguy]

LBJ got a higher percentage of the popular vote than any other presidential candidate since WWII.  He won by nearly 23 percentage points.

Why did LBJ win so many states?  It's because a rising tide lifts all boats.  It's almost surprising he lost any states at all.  (FDR's 1936 win was by 24 points, and he only lost 2 very small states.)

Whatever people in Florida, the Upper South, and Idaho thought of Johnson, they seemed to agree with most of the rest of the country in their feelings for Goldwater.

[mianfei]

And why wasn’t white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn’t as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

There’s also the critical issue that Goldwater wanted to privatize the Tennessee Valley Authority, which many writers believed prevented him from winning Tennessee. William C. Harvard in The Changing Politics of the South from 1970 and the more recent Winning the White House, 2008 (page 107; various authors) both argue Goldwater could have won Tennessee had he not supported TVA privatization.

In Texas – and possibly also Oklahoma and Arkansas – the fact that Lyndon Johnson was a Texan no doubt did help him a great deal.

In Oklahoma and Texas, there would also no doubt have been severe hostility to Goldwater’s TVA proposals for the very simple reason that those two states possess, especially vis-à-vis the rest of the South, very limited water resources. Given that he wanted to privatize the Tennessee Valley authority, it’s extremely easy to see how Oklahomans would have imagined Goldwater privatizing Oklahoma’s water supply with increased costs for ordinary citizens.

[Hydera]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

Upper South also had far less African-americans. Theres maps of the white vote for the Obama and Clinton which showed that whites who lived close to regions with more african americans tend to vote more Republican than whites who live in Southern areas with far lower numbers of African americans.  Also the War on Poverty programs might of convinced those upper south areas to stay for LBJ considering the region was still poorer on average.

[mianfei]

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Fears Goldwater would end various public works projects and other federal programs trumped race in much of the South that year.

I have thought a bit since my previous posts, and the big surprise seems to me to have been Goldwater's inability to hold Virginia (which voted Republican at every other election from 1952 to 2004). I checked and found Goldwater lost Virginia by quite a bit less than I thought - seven percentage points, which made it his tenth strongest state and was about six points less than I remembered wrongly.

Virginia was similar to the Deep South in having a very restricted electorate due to the control of the Byrd Organization, and loss of Federal public works would have been a much less critical issue for Virginia than the inland Upper South. However, Democratic gains compared to 1960 in the coal country counties of the far southwest, and the western Shenandoah Valley, seem to have more than countered Goldwater's Southside gains in counties which would mostly vote for Wallace in 1968.

Given the Byrd Organization's strength in the Shanandoah Valley, why did it move away from Goldwater in 1964?

[Calthrina950]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

Upper South also had far less African-americans. Theres maps of the white vote for the Obama and Clinton which showed that whites who lived close to regions with more african americans tend to vote more Republican than whites who live in Southern areas with far lower numbers of African americans.  Also the War on Poverty programs might of convinced those upper south areas to stay for LBJ considering the region was still poorer on average.

Touching upon that, I've seen articles saying that Goldwater won the white vote in some of the states carried by Johnson. Would you happen to know then, how Johnson won those states? And exactly in which ones did Goldwater win the white vote?

[Hydera]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

Upper South also had far less African-americans. Theres maps of the white vote for the Obama and Clinton which showed that whites who lived close to regions with more african americans tend to vote more Republican than whites who live in Southern areas with far lower numbers of African americans.  Also the War on Poverty programs might of convinced those upper south areas to stay for LBJ considering the region was still poorer on average.

Touching upon that, I've seen articles saying that Goldwater won the white vote in some of the states carried by Johnson. Would you happen to know then, how Johnson won those states? And exactly in which ones did Goldwater win the white vote?

Florida wouldn't have been won without the black vote because the margins were so close there. And for Virginia, LBJ would of won that state without the black vote but only with a margin of perhaps 1-2% without the black vote.

For Florida, LBJ won the Urban vote, Goldwater won the rural vote in the state. Without the black vote in Florida then Goldwater would of won that state by 1-3%. What made the state close was Goldwater being a lot stronger than LBJ in the Suburban vote where he won Orange, Palm Beach, Broward, Seminole, Marion, Polk, metro Jacksonville. While LBJ won Miami-dade, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Voulsia, Brevard, Port Lucie.

[Calthrina950]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

Upper South also had far less African-americans. Theres maps of the white vote for the Obama and Clinton which showed that whites who lived close to regions with more african americans tend to vote more Republican than whites who live in Southern areas with far lower numbers of African americans.  Also the War on Poverty programs might of convinced those upper south areas to stay for LBJ considering the region was still poorer on average.

Touching upon that, I've seen articles saying that Goldwater won the white vote in some of the states carried by Johnson. Would you happen to know then, how Johnson won those states? And exactly in which ones did Goldwater win the white vote?

Florida wouldn't have been won without the black vote because the margins were so close there. And for Virginia, LBJ would of won that state without the black vote but only with a margin of perhaps 1-2% without the black vote.

For Florida, LBJ won the Urban vote, Goldwater won the rural vote in the state. Without the black vote in Florida then Goldwater would of won that state by 1-3%. What made the state close was Goldwater being a lot stronger than LBJ in the Suburban vote where he won Orange, Palm Beach, Broward, Seminole, Marion, Polk, metro Jacksonville. While LBJ won Miami-dade, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Voulsia, Brevard, Port Lucie.

Why did Florida and Virginia vote for Johnson? I would have imagined that the anti-civil rights backlash in those states might have given them to Goldwater.

[Hydera]

And why wasn't white backlash enough in the Upper South to flip it to Goldwater?

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

Upper South also had far less African-americans. Theres maps of the white vote for the Obama and Clinton which showed that whites who lived close to regions with more african americans tend to vote more Republican than whites who live in Southern areas with far lower numbers of African americans.  Also the War on Poverty programs might of convinced those upper south areas to stay for LBJ considering the region was still poorer on average.

Touching upon that, I've seen articles saying that Goldwater won the white vote in some of the states carried by Johnson. Would you happen to know then, how Johnson won those states? And exactly in which ones did Goldwater win the white vote?

Florida wouldn't have been won without the black vote because the margins were so close there. And for Virginia, LBJ would of won that state without the black vote but only with a margin of perhaps 1-2% without the black vote.

For Florida, LBJ won the Urban vote, Goldwater won the rural vote in the state. Without the black vote in Florida then Goldwater would of won that state by 1-3%. What made the state close was Goldwater being a lot stronger than LBJ in the Suburban vote where he won Orange, Palm Beach, Broward, Seminole, Marion, Polk, metro Jacksonville. While LBJ won Miami-dade, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Voulsia, Brevard, Port Lucie.

Why did Florida and Virginia vote for Johnson? I would have imagined that the anti-civil rights backlash in those states might have given them to Goldwater.

A lot of suburban republicans in Virginia and Florida switched over to LBJ because they were more immune to Goldwater's campaigning on the civil rights act backlash that worked mainly in the deep south.

[Fuzzy Bear]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Fears Goldwater would end various public works projects and other federal programs trumped race in much of the South that year.

I have thought a bit since my previous posts, and the big surprise seems to me to have been Goldwater's inability to hold Virginia (which voted Republican at every other election from 1952 to 2004). I checked and found Goldwater lost Virginia by quite a bit less than I thought - seven percentage points, which made it his tenth strongest state and was about six points less than I remembered wrongly.

Virginia was similar to the Deep South in having a very restricted electorate due to the control of the Byrd Organization, and loss of Federal public works would have been a much less critical issue for Virginia than the inland Upper South. However, Democratic gains compared to 1960 in the coal country counties of the far southwest, and the western Shenandoah Valley, seem to have more than countered Goldwater's Southside gains in counties which would mostly vote for Wallace in 1968.

Given the Byrd Organization's strength in the Shanandoah Valley, why did it move away from Goldwater in 1964?

Harry Byrd, Sr. endorsed LBJ in 1964, albeit quietly.

In the Southern states where LBJ won, the Democratic establishment endorsed him and campaigned for him.  This included Florida, where conservative Democratic Sen. Spessard Holland endorsed LBJ late in the campaign.  The states where LBJ lost had significant numbers of bolters from the Democratic ticket, if only to the point of not endorsing anyone.

[Calthrina950]

Cause Florida is really not a "Southern" state, plus the GOP/Dixiecrats were not strong enough in the non-Panhandle region to flip it to Goldwater.

Miami-Dade and West-Central Florida saved Johnson in the state.

I also find it astonishing that the pattern of Democrats winning states with only a few select counties was already beginning to establish itself by 1964.

[Calthrina950]

Cause Florida is really not a "Southern" state, plus the GOP/Dixiecrats were not strong enough in the non-Panhandle region to flip it to Goldwater.

Miami-Dade and West-Central Florida saved Johnson in the state.

I also find it astonishing that the pattern of Democrats winning states with only a few select counties was already beginning to establish itself by 1964.

Bumping this up considerably, but wanted to provide more insight on this. Florida was one of two states that Johnson carried where he won fewer counties than Goldwater-Nebraska was the other. He did manage to carry the majority in Idaho, Virginia, Kansas, and Utah, the other states that he won by single digit margins. Nevertheless, what I said here was still holding true. In 1960, for example, John F. Kennedy became the first Democrat ever to win a presidential election while carrying fewer counties than his primary opponent (this counts Democrats prior to the emergence of the Republican Party as well). There were many states where this was true-Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinois, and New Jersey are particularly stark examples.

[darklordoftech]

Goldwater’s views on Social Security and Medicare likely hurt him in Florida.

[Kingpoleon]

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

There was very little difference in views on civil rights in Texas, Florida, Virginia, etc. compared to the Deep South. However, as mentioned before, the Thurmond machines didn’t have nearly as much power in the Upper South and Florida.

[Calthrina950]

The Upper South was not pro-civil rights, but it wasn't as an important issue as it was in the Deep South.  Also, the fact that LBJ was a Southerner (a Texan) may have helped.

There was very little difference in views on civil rights in Texas, Florida, Virginia, etc. compared to the Deep South. However, as mentioned before, the Thurmond machines didn’t have nearly as much power in the Upper South and Florida.

There's also the fact that black voters were registered at higher rates in the Outer South than in the Deep South. I've read numerous sources that have stated that the black vote was critical to Johnson's victories in Florida and Virginia, and that he would have lost those states without it. That of course, was discussed earlier on this thread. I think it is likely that Johnson would have carried Georgia, and possibly Louisiana and South Carolina, if black voters had been registered at similar rates to those in Florida and Virginia. He still managed to get over 40% of the vote in those three states with disenfranchisement still being as pervasive as it was.

[Arbitrage1980]

If the GOP had nominated a mainstream Republican such as Rockefeller/Scranton/Romney, how would they have fared against LBJ? They would have lost, but what would the margins have looked like?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Cause Florida is really not a "Southern" state, plus the GOP/Dixiecrats were not strong enough in the non-Panhandle region to flip it to Goldwater.

Miami-Dade and West-Central Florida saved Johnson in the state.

Funny to see how counties switched from 1960.



Also, I'm kind of surprised LBJ won Bradford and Union counties.