Sabato/Cook/Rothenberg 2017/2018 Ratings

[publicunofficial]

Charlie Cook released his initial race ratings for the 2017 and 2018 Governor's races:

Solid D:
California (OPEN)
Hawaii (Ige)
New York (Cuomo)

Likely D:
Oregon (Brown)
Rhode Island (Raimondo)

Lean D/I
Alaska (Walker)
Colorado (OPEN)
Connecticut (Malloy)
Minnesota (OPEN)
New Jersey (OPEN)
Pennsylvania (Wolf)

Toss-Up:
Florida (OPEN)
Maine (OPEN)
Michigan (OPEN)
Nevada (OPEN)
New Mexico (OPEN)
Virginia (OPEN)

Lean R:
Illinois (Rauner)
New Hampshire (Sununu)
Ohio (OPEN)
Wisconsin (Walker)

Likely R:
Arizona (Ducey)
Maryland (Hogan)
Massachusetts (Baker)
Vermont (Scott)


Solid R:
Alabama (OPEN)
Arkansas (Hutchinson)
Georgia (OPEN)
Idaho (OPEN)
Iowa (Branstad)
Kansas (OPEN)
Nebraska (Ricketts)
Oklahoma (OPEN)
South Carolina (OPEN)
South Dakota (OPEN)
Tennessee (OPEN)
Texas (Abbott)
Wyoming (OPEN)


As usual, fairly incumbent-friendly. Which given how none of these races have really taken shape, is fair. I'd personally have Kansas and Georgia in Likely R.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Likely R seems a bit too safe for a Republican two years out in Vermont.

[publicunofficial]

Likely R seems a bit too safe for a Republican two years out in Vermont.

He managed to beat the partisan lean of the state this year. Hard to see him f**king up so badly he destroys all that goodwill in two years.

[smoltchanov]

Likely R seems a bit too safe for a Republican two years out in Vermont.

Wouldn't it be Phil Scott, who, AFAIK, is undefeated (but has many victories) in Vermont's politics - then, of course, yes.

[MT Treasurer]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL and NH Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

[Maxwell]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

I'd agree with this, can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

[Young Conservative]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

I'd agree with this, can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

Pennsylvania definitely needs to be in the tossup section

http://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbrown/2016/06/23/pas-wolf-finally-drops-tax-increase-plan-as-popularity-plummets/#49ae7b2b481d

IN addition, a Quinnipiac poll found in may his approval hovering in the mid thirties and his disapproval at 51%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

I'd agree with this, can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

Pennsylvania definitely needs to be in the tossup section

http://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbrown/2016/06/23/pas-wolf-finally-drops-tax-increase-plan-as-popularity-plummets/#49ae7b2b481d

IN addition, a Quinnipiac poll found in may his approval hovering in the mid thirties and his disapproval at 51%.

Not really Pennsylvania doesn't change governors unless they do something really bad heck the guy before Wolf was way more unpopular and he won reelection

[Gass3268]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

I'd agree with this, can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

Pennsylvania definitely needs to be in the tossup section

http://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbrown/2016/06/23/pas-wolf-finally-drops-tax-increase-plan-as-popularity-plummets/#49ae7b2b481d

IN addition, a Quinnipiac poll found in may his approval hovering in the mid thirties and his disapproval at 51%.

Not really Pennsylvania doesn't change governors unless they do something really bad heck the guy before Wolf was way more unpopular and he won reelection

I'm guessing you mean Rendell in 06, because Corbett lost in 14.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think NM should be Lean D, IL Tossup, GA and OK Likely R and KS Lean R. Rest looks fine.

I'd agree with this, can't think of anything else off the top of my head.

Pennsylvania definitely needs to be in the tossup section

http://www.forbes.com/sites/travisbrown/2016/06/23/pas-wolf-finally-drops-tax-increase-plan-as-popularity-plummets/#49ae7b2b481d

IN addition, a Quinnipiac poll found in may his approval hovering in the mid thirties and his disapproval at 51%.

Not really Pennsylvania doesn't change governors unless they do something really bad heck the guy before Wolf was way more unpopular and he won reelection

I'm guessing you mean Rendell in 06, because Corbett lost in 14.

Right got them mixed up

[Nyvin]

Illinois being Lean R is pretty generous to Rauner.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Illinois being Lean R is pretty generous to Rauner.

Let's see who actually runs before jumping to conclusions. If dems are going to nominate Rahm, Rauner will be reelected.

[Maxwell]

Illinois being Lean R is pretty generous to Rauner.

Let's see who actually runs before jumping to conclusions. If dems are going to nominate Rahm, Rauner will be reelected.

If dems nominate a lab rat who says racial epithets in a german accent then they'd probably lose against Rauner as well. The lab rat is a more likely nominee than Rahm, and is almost certainly more electable.

[RINO Tom]

Gotta love seeing Vermont, Maryland and Massachusetts in a Likely R column.

[Figueira]

You forgot to list SD (obviously solid R).

[Nyvin]

I imagine the Democrats will pick up a number of "solid R" open seats just because that's really been the norm for midterms for the party that doesn't hold the White House.   Governor races really don't follow partisan lines like both the Senate/President do.

[smoltchanov]

I imagine the Democrats will pick up a number of "solid R" open seats just because that's really been the norm for midterms for the party that doesn't hold the White House.   Governor races really don't follow partisan lines like both the Senate/President do.

If so - another scenatio is also possible: expected Trump blunders will not seriously affect governor elections with their own dynamics. In such case Democrats will NOT "pick a number of "solid R" open seats"

[Fuzzy Bear]

Gotta love seeing Vermont, Maryland and Massachusetts in a Likely R column.

I see 2 of these 3 switching.

[JMT]

Let's start with this: it is FAR too early to make accurate predictions (at least in some of the closer races), but I'll go along with it anyways. I mostly agree with this analysis, but have a few disagreements.

-I have no idea where to place Alaska. While Walker is an independent, he was once a republican who actually ended up combining forces with the Democrats to win the last election. I'm assuming he'll run as an independent again, but his chances largely depend on which candidates run for each party. Will Democrats seriously contest this race if Mark Begich runs? If Walker, Begich, and a credible Republican are all running, Begich could have a serious chance here.
-I agree with Connecticut if Malloy DOESN'T run. If Malloy does run again, I think it's a tossup. He's pretty unpopular, but also depends on who Republicans nominate and what the national climate is like.
-I don't see New Mexico as a tossup, I think it belongs in the Lean D or Likely D column. Republicans got real lucky with Martinez, and I don't see them getting a candidate like her again.
-Rauner seems pretty unpopular in Illinois, and its a hugely Democratic state. Rauner lucked out last time by facing an unpopular opponent in a great climate for Republicans. Remains to be seen who Democrats recruit, but I think this is a tossup, possibly Lean D.
-I'd also rate NH as a tossup. No one yet knows how Sununu will do as governor, and NH is a swing state anyways. Also, NH tends to go along with whatever the national climate is, so Sununu's chances may largely depend on how people feel about Trump and Republican congress in 2018.
-Iowa is solid R if Branstad runs for reelection. If he retires or gets a job in the Trump administration, I think this race moves to Lean R, or maybe likely R.
-I'd also move Georgia to Likely R, or maybe Lean R. Jason Carter may be able to do better in this midterm cycle than the last one if he decides to run again. 

[RINO Tom]

Gotta love seeing Vermont, Maryland and Massachusetts in a Likely R column.

I see 2 of these 3 switching.

Oh yeah, why's that?  Little evidence of that so far.

[smoltchanov]

Gotta love seeing Vermont, Maryland and Massachusetts in a Likely R column.

I see 2 of these 3 switching.

Oh yeah, why's that?  Little evidence of that so far.

Right now i don't see even 1

[Figueira]

Well Phil Scott needs to actually govern for a while, but I think if he goes the Douglas route he'll be fine.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

oregon should be safe d imo

[smoltchanov]

oregon should be safe d imo

Brown won by less then 7%. And against not the strongest possible candidate. Likely D is about right, IMHO...

[smoltchanov]

Well Phil Scott needs to actually govern for a while, but I think if he goes the Douglas route he'll be fine.

He is more liberal then Douglas, AFAIK...