Wisconsin Municipal Results

[ElectionsGuy]

Organized by County and then by size of city. Comparison to 2012 thread

Brown County

Green Bay

Clinton: 21,291 (48.0%)
Trump: 19,821 (44.7%)

Dane County

Madison

Clinton: 120,078 (78.2%)
Trump: 23,053 (15.0%)

Douglas County

Superior

Clinton: 6,818 (55.0%)
Trump: 4,642 (37.4%)

Eau Claire County

Eau Claire

Clinton: 19,169 (54.3%)
Trump: 13,073 (37.1%)

Kenosha County

Kenosha

Clinton: 22,849 (54.9%)
Trump: 15,829 (38.1%)

La Crosse County

La Crosse

Clinton: 15,944 (58.8%)
Trump: 9,050 (33.4%)

Marathon County

Wausau

Clinton: 8,634 (48.5%)
Trump: 7,886 (44.3%)

Milwaukee County

Milwaukee

Clinton: 188,653 (76.6%)
Trump: 45,167 (18.3%)

Wauwatosa

Clinton: 16,316 (56.9%)
Trump: 10,034 (35.0%)

West Allis

Clinton: 13,666 (47.6%)
Trump: 12,807 (44.6%)

Outagamie County

Appleton*

Clinton: 17,879 (49.1%)
Trump: 15,954 (43.9%)

Ozaukee County

Mequon

Trump: 8,165 (52.4%)
Clinton: 6,385 (41.0%)

Portage County

Stevens Point

Clinton: 7,886 (56.9%)
Trump: 4,657 (33.6%)

Racine County

Racine

Clinton: 19,029 (64.3%)
Trump: 8,934 (30.2%)

Sheboygan County

Sheboygan

Clinton: 10,454 (50.1%)
Trump: 8,765 (42.0%)

Waukesha County

Waukesha

Trump: 18,238 (50.7%)
Clinton: 14,574 (40.5%)

Brookfield

Trump: 13,968 (56.1%)
Clinton: 9,136 (36.7%)

New Berlin

Trump: 14,432 (57.5%)
Clinton: 8,868 (35.3%)

Winnebago County

Oshkosh

Clinton: 15,237 (48.2%)
Trump: 13,872 (43.9%)

*Includes portions in Calumet and Winnebago counties.

to be continued, will take any requests.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wauwatosa is the epitome of what the GOP is leaving behind by going into the party of Trump. Voted for Kasich in the primary, voted for Obama by 1 in 2012, Clinton by 22 in 2016. 56% have a bachelor's degree, household income around $69,000. Brookfield is also hilarious, Trump halved the margin Romney got there.

[Gass3268]

Wauwatosa is the epitome of what the GOP is leaving behind by going into the party of Trump. Voted for Kasich in the primary, voted for Obama by 1 in 2012, Clinton by 22 in 2016. 56% have a bachelor's degree, household income around $69,000. Brookfield is also hilarious, Trump halved the margin Romney got there.

Sort of surprised that Trump didn't win West Allis.

Looking at more results from Milwaukee County, Clinton won all of the villages in Northeast part of the county (including Fox Point and River Hills). I'm not even sure Obama did that in 08.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wauwatosa is the epitome of what the GOP is leaving behind by going into the party of Trump. Voted for Kasich in the primary, voted for Obama by 1 in 2012, Clinton by 22 in 2016. 56% have a bachelor's degree, household income around $69,000. Brookfield is also hilarious, Trump halved the margin Romney got there.

Sort of surprised that Trump didn't win West Allis.

Looking at more results from Milwaukee County, Clinton won all of the villages in Northeast part of the county (including Fox Point and River Hills). I'm not even sure Obama did that in 08.

River Hills is one of the wealthiest communities in the state of Wisconsin, and I just checked and even McCain won it. It went 51-43 for Clinton. It was 57-42 Romney in 2012. Trump got...

Franklin
Greendale
Greenfield
Hales Corners
Oak Creek

in Milwaukee County. He just barely lost South Milwaukee.

[Skye]

Also, Trump only carried Waukesha city by 10.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Wauwatosa is the epitome of what the GOP is leaving behind by going into the party of Trump. Voted for Kasich in the primary, voted for Obama by 1 in 2012, Clinton by 22 in 2016. 56% have a bachelor's degree, household income around $69,000. Brookfield is also hilarious, Trump halved the margin Romney got there.

Seems kind of irrelevant in light of the gains. Kasich was third in Wauwatosa county (Cruz won) and trump still won it by 27 in November. Kasich voters are a small voting bloc compared to the new voters Trump brought into the GOP. Trump didn't do all that badly in the southeast corner (he flipped Racine and Kenosha counties between Milwaukee and Chicago) and he had double digit swings in most of the counties in the northern and western parts of the state (He beat Hillary by more than 20 in some counties that Obama won twice).

It's also worth noting that the white working class democrats who flipped over to Trump did so because the democratic party had abandoned them on the issues, whereas many of the suburban voters who refused to vote for Trump did so because of his personality. In other words, Trump's platform could have won a lot more votes with a better messenger. To be fair, Hillary was also a bad candidate. Bernie might have won Wisconsin and Michigan.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone run numbers yet on counties/cities in Wisconsin heavily dependent on paper and pulp mills?

From my research into small-town and rural precincts and cities in Oregon heavily dependent upon pulp mills, it appears that Trump's economic message on unfair trade practices from China played really well in WWC communities where the unions and local Democratic Political leaders have for the past five years been directly connecting the impact on local paper/pulp mills to closures throughout the industry.

From what I can observe in Wisconsin, these mills are heavily concentrated in the area around Green Bay (Brown, Outgamie, & Winnebago counties) as well as some counties in the North-Central part of the state (Lincoln, Wood, Rusk, & Portage Counties)....

If we look at Maine, this has been a major issue in ME-02 going back to at least three years ago, if you look at local news coverage.

Any of our resident Wisconsinites have any local insights into how this played in these parts of the state?

This is something that I consider to have been a bit of a sleeper issue, that was totally under my radar, with all of the focus on Trump's appeal to manufacturing workers in the Midwest and "Rustbelt" (Yeah--- I know not a PC term ) until I started digging deeper into what happened in Columbia County, Oregon and even saw a similar phenomenon in the city of Coos Bay Oregon, as well as Toledo, Oregon....

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- I still haven't seen any responses to my question on the concentration of pulp & paper mill jobs in "upstate" Wisconsin and potential impacts in the 2016 Presidential Election Results, where many Democrats and Union members condemned union job losses on unfair trade competition from China....

However, in the absence of local Atlasians, I've started to pull some of my own numbers.

Green Bay is known as the "toilet paper capitol of the world" (And this not a dis on the Packers... am an Igles Man myself), because of a massive concentration of employees (2.2k in '14 at the GP Mill), as well if you back into the 1980s and up until the Mid '90s was not only a dominant player in the industry, but also at the forefront of technology when it came to production of toilet paper, paper towels, etc....

In the Mid '90s "Fort Howard Paper" creates a joint venture in Shangahi, China.

In 2000 Fort Howard merges with Georgia-Pacific (GP).

2005: The Koch brothers buy GP as a privately held company.

https://www.gp.com/Company/Company-Overview/Locations/Green-Bay.aspx

ok-- fair enough, free enterprise great.....

As part of the GP acquisition, meanwhile the Koch Brothers are practicing "double-breasting", which is a term that I learned from a 3rd generation Coal Miner (UMWA Proud and Strong) from SE-Ohio when I was in college in the early '90s.

Double-Breasting is when you shut down a union mill/facility and shift operations to a non-union mill in order to maximize profits and decrease employee labor costs, even in profitable mines/mills.

Why is this at all relevant to the 2016 Presidential Election Results in paper mill communities from Oregon, to Wisconsin, to Northern Maine???

The Koch brothers have been gradually shifting their paper production overseas to China, where they can increase their ROI and margins, and left working-class American Union Mill jobs in the dust....

Ok--- don't believe me yet.... if y'all haven't seen the Oregon GE thread and Presidential Election results in Columbia County.... check out the Wauna Mill in Clatnaskie Oregon.

http://media.oregonlive.com/mapes/other/OutrageInOregonFinal2.pdf

http://www.dailyastorian.com/CRBJ/news/20150204/the-wauna-mill-a-half-century-of-family-pride/1

https://nwlaborpress.org/2011/05/koch/

Fair to ask... what the hell does that have to do with Wisconsin?

Timber and paper related products are a major employer in many parts of Wisconsin, for any of you members on Atlas that don't dwell in Metro-Milwaukie and places like Kenosha/Racine, and aren't currently going to Grad School at UW-Madison.

There has been a slew of layoffs in the paper and pulp industry in Wisconsin in just the past few years alone, that has dominated small and rural town newspapers (Just as it has in Oregon and Maine).

So the paper and pulp industry in Wisconsin is much more dependent on the newspaper industry that is less at risk of losing jobs overseas to China than the TP industry (For lack of a better term.

Still there have been a series of mergers and layoffs in just a few years that have hit hard in rural Wisconsin from Wisconsin Rapids (Wood Co) to Stevens Point (Portage Co) within this sector, and when  Verso (Consolidated Paper) fell it created an unprecedented level of social upheaval, that now are facing not only massive job cuts, but also the Obama  DoJ went in on an anti-trust measure that failed to prevent these changes...

http://archive.jsonline.com/business/newpage-corp-completes-sale-of-3-wisconsin-paper-mills-b99422553z1-287999451.html

This is only a snippet, but what is clear when a Democratic President and Cabinet can't stop the massive loss of jobs to overseas competition, it is easy for a Republican "Populist" and "Economic Protectionist" to jump in and fill the gaps, to promise workers that he will somehow save their jobs.

Needless to say, this is terrain a Democrat should NEVER have ceded to a Republican nominee, and it cost her Wisconsin, ME-02, as well as many mill dependent communities in Oregon.

The interesting question, is now that Trump has crossed swords with the Koch brothers, will he actually deliver to the paper and pulp mill workers of America, or will he cede ground and fold so that they can expand their international empire further? 2020 will be interesting to watch in places like Brown, Portage, Wood county Wisconsin, Columbia, Clatsop, Lincoln, and Coos County Oregon, as well as in counties in Northern Maine.

[Wiz in Wis]

I'm not probably qualified to speak to paper specifically, but I think the key Trump advantage in all of the areas you've highlighted are centered around culture. Not so much identity politics, but the idea that Trump spoke like one of them, sounded credible on business, and was saying the right things on trade and immigration. Combine that with the strong negatives Hillary carried, and these regions were the most ripe to be flipped.

The future for Trump and the GOP in these areas depends on a) how successful they are in protecting jobs, or at least looking like they are, and b) who the Dems nominate, and how successful they are at criticizing Trump. Also, these people probably dump Trump if he looks corrupt. Finally, it is very important to remember that even with these pretty massive swings, Trump barely won WI, MI, and PA. He will have to be very successful to hold on to these gains, let alone expand on them.

[NOVA Green]

I'm not probably qualified to speak to paper specifically, but I think the key Trump advantage in all of the areas you've highlighted are centered around culture. Not so much identity politics, but the idea that Trump spoke like one of them, sounded credible on business, and was saying the right things on trade and immigration. Combine that with the strong negatives Hillary carried, and these regions were the most ripe to be flipped.

The future for Trump and the GOP in these areas depends on a) how successful they are in protecting jobs, or at least looking like they are, and b) who the Dems nominate, and how successful they are at criticizing Trump. Also, these people probably dump Trump if he looks corrupt. Finally, it is very important to remember that even with these pretty massive swings, Trump barely won WI, MI, and PA. He will have to be very successful to hold on to these gains, let alone expand on them.

Wiz---- I definitely respect your expertise on the dynamics of Wisconsin politics, along with many other contributors from the great Badger State....

I agree fundamentally on the points that you are making in your second paragraph regarding the future of the "Trumpista" wing of the Republican Party, in terms on their overall success in "delivering the goodies to the hoodies" if you will, particularly in economically depressed parts of rural/small-town Americana in Northern States where traditionally Democrats can perform quite well among heavily WWC demographics....

Not quite as sure about your point regarding "culture", since although I think Trade and economic protectionism was definitely an issue with many of these voters I'm not as convinced that immigration was as much a factor, and I suspect that although rhetorically it played well as part of a "common sense immigration policy" deal, I'm a bit skeptical that it moved that many votes....

My thought is where the immigration rhetoric made the biggest swing were in predominately older Anglo areas facing a dramatic increase of Latinos, where there was a bit of a "Fear Factor" from older people going to the grocery store, shopping strip/mall and all that, but not as much communities where our kids/grandkids go to the same schools, and we work in the same factories and offices (Younger and Middle-Aged Anglos)....

Not sure what's going on in various parts of Wisconsin, but my Grandchildren are going to public schools in Oregon (Willamette Valley), and are getting a massive jump on learning a second language while they are learning readin', writin', rithmatic', and going out and playing on the schoolyards are the same time....

Maybe it's just a Western/ SW US thing combined with Texas....

I'm still trying to figure out what happened with the Midwest... went to college in Ohio, sister went to school in TC Michigan, and I get that Trump only narrowly won WI and MI, but I'm still trying to figure how Midwestern voters decided to go en masse for Trump's Shtick, which I would not have touched with a nine foot pole....