Arizona and Georgia

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Arizona yes, Georgia no.  I think Georgia and Texas will swing back Republican in 2020, even if Trump loses.  Their close margins were largely attributable to college educated rich suburban conservatives staying home, voting third party, or even for Clinton (which didn't happen to the same extent in similar regions of Tennessee, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Alabama, but seems to have happened here).  I suspect that, unless Trump is universally accepted as a disaster, they will come home in 2020.  Anecdotally, most of my friends fit that demographic quite well, and it seems to me that even a lot of the ones who didn't support candidate Trump are getting behind President Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ds need to lock down NC before they start crowing about AZ & GA.

Arizona was slightly closer than North Carolina though.  Why would we expect NC to be more winnable for Dems in the future than AZ?

At this point, we have to conclude that NC in 2008 was just the perfect combination of newly registered African-Americans and residual Blue Dog Dems voting on economic issues.  It was right of AZ this year and I think it will be right of both AZ and GA in 2020.

Given the Clinton campaign's lack of effort there, I think we are all underestimating how much GA looks like VA in 2004 right now.

Everyone was saying that NC was another VA, just a couple years behind.  Why should we assume that this is some trend that will eventually infect most large red states (it's only a matter of which states are further along the ramp), rather than just something unique to Virginia?