Arizona and Georgia
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Author Topic: Arizona and Georgia  (Read 2253 times)
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 02, 2016, 12:34:27 AM »

Despite losing, Hillary actually did better in Arizona and Georgia.

Donald Trump narrowly won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a greatly reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.03% margin in 2012

Donald Trump won the election in Georgia by 5.1%, a lower margin compared to Mitt Romney's 7.82% in 2012

Should these be states that Democrats focus on in 2020?
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2016, 12:42:33 AM »

I think Georgia might be hard but if Castro is the nom I think Arizonia will go blue
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appealtoheaven
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2016, 01:10:46 AM »

Although you're right that georgia and definitely arizona are within shouting distance for Democrats in 2020 - theyre probably just as likely to go blue as nevada or NH is to go red - even if both become swing states or even lean blue states, it wouldn't compensate for the massive Republican gains in the midwest.
Arizona is absolutely going through a transition period right now though - elderly population is rising, meaning increased support for social security, and the increasing latino population means that Republicans are going to have to tone down hardline immigration stances to win the state. Even John McCain this election, who does better with the elderly and with latinos than most republicans tend to do was down about 6 points from where he was six years ago. That could just be because kirkpatrick was a good candidate, but even then, that signifies that the Arizona democratic party is getting some stronger members. Let us not forget, though, that Democrats were slaughtered in Ohio this election, and obviously some states have come into play that nobody (important) could've predicted would. I personally think that Democrat money would be better spent trying to keep Ohio a swing state - or even a lean red state - than it would trying to flip arizona or georgia. The two of them might end up flipping due to demographic changes anyways - right now is a time to stop states like ohio, wisconsin and michigan from becoming the new stomping grounds of the GOP.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2016, 02:06:54 AM »

It would be inexcusable to write off MI/PA/WI, all of which were within 1.5% and all of which are still perfectly winnable for Democrats in 2020 as long as the Democratic nominee campaigns there and takes those states seriously. As for AZ/GA, put together they can definitely be a replacement for IA/OH, which for the moment seem to be slipping away from Democrats (though these things can sometimes reverse themselves) -- 2020 seems to be a little too early for GA, which'll still be a leans-R state at that point, but AZ will definitely be a swing state and it would be inexcusable for Democrats not to invest something in that state.

The 2018 Senate race in AZ is going to be very telling as well. I'd imagine Kyrsten Sinema is licking her lips to run against a divisive Republican incumbent in a Trump midterm. If she can't make it (or if she decides not to run), that would be a very negative sign for Democrats.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2016, 02:35:10 AM »

It would be inexcusable to write off MI/PA/WI, all of which were within 1.5% and all of which are still perfectly winnable for Democrats in 2020 as long as the Democratic nominee campaigns there and takes those states seriously. As for AZ/GA, put together they can definitely be a replacement for IA/OH, which for the moment seem to be slipping away from Democrats (though these things can sometimes reverse themselves) -- 2020 seems to be a little too early for GA, which'll still be a leans-R state at that point, but AZ will definitely be a swing state and it would be inexcusable for Democrats not to invest something in that state.

The 2018 Senate race in AZ is going to be very telling as well. I'd imagine Kyrsten Sinema is licking her lips to run against a divisive Republican incumbent in a Trump midterm. If she can't make it (or if she decides not to run), that would be a very negative sign for Democrats.

No, if Trump continues with what he did with Carrier the Midwest will be solidly GOP in 2020 because muh jobs.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2016, 02:40:53 AM »

If Democrats win in 2020, I would be shocked if they do not pick up Georgia..
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2016, 03:17:45 AM »

Arizona yes, Georgia no.  I think Georgia and Texas will swing back Republican in 2020, even if Trump loses.  Their close margins were largely attributable to college educated rich suburban conservatives staying home, voting third party, or even for Clinton (which didn't happen to the same extent in similar regions of Tennessee, South Carolina, Wisconsin, and Alabama, but seems to have happened here).  I suspect that, unless Trump is universally accepted as a disaster, they will come home in 2020.  Anecdotally, most of my friends fit that demographic quite well, and it seems to me that even a lot of the ones who didn't support candidate Trump are getting behind President Trump.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2016, 05:15:12 AM »

It would be inexcusable to write off MI/PA/WI, all of which were within 1.5% and all of which are still perfectly winnable for Democrats in 2020 as long as the Democratic nominee campaigns there and takes those states seriously.

It seems like certain people in the party want to write off these states because they aren't suburban enough for their taste.
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2016, 11:06:52 AM »

Georgia should be a big target for Democrats since unless we do really well in 2018, it will be part of the path to a Senate majority.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2016, 08:22:34 AM »

Georgia flipping at some point or another is inevitable,   Atlanta is just growing too big.

The same goes for Texas and it's big cities, but that'll probably take longer.
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2016, 09:02:09 AM »

If Democrats win in 2020, I would be shocked if they do not pick up Georgia..
Or Arizona.
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henster
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« Reply #11 on: December 03, 2016, 02:02:41 PM »

Ds need to lock down NC before they start crowing about AZ & GA. We keep hearing about how the demos are just right in NC and keep coming up short.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: December 03, 2016, 02:12:26 PM »

Ds need to lock down NC before they start crowing about AZ & GA.

Arizona was slightly closer than North Carolina though.  Why would we expect NC to be more winnable for Dems in the future than AZ?
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« Reply #13 on: December 03, 2016, 02:28:14 PM »

Ds need to lock down NC before they start crowing about AZ & GA.

Arizona was slightly closer than North Carolina though.  Why would we expect NC to be more winnable for Dems in the future than AZ?


At this point, we have to conclude that NC in 2008 was just the perfect combination of newly registered African-Americans and residual Blue Dog Dems voting on economic issues.  It was right of AZ this year and I think it will be right of both AZ and GA in 2020.

Given the Clinton campaign's lack of effort there, I think we are all underestimating how much GA looks like VA in 2004 right now.

Everyone was saying that NC was another VA, just a couple years behind.  Why should we assume that this is some trend that will eventually infect most large red states (it's only a matter of which states are further along the ramp), rather than just something unique to Virginia?
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #14 on: December 03, 2016, 03:41:50 PM »

Can't speak for AZ but I from Georgia and I know my state. Trump was probably the worst fit for Georgia but I still doubt he loose it 2020. Still how Georgia trended this election should be troubling for Republican

Hillary won the votes in the 5 core counties of Atlanta 2 to 1. The precincts here with more than 50% white voted for Trump by only 1 point. In the 3 northern suburban counties some of the most Republican counties in the country he dropped 5 points from Romney.He dropped 4 points in both suburban Cherokee and Poultry capital Hall. He also dropped 10 points in Forsyth County the same county from Oprah 1987 special. In the Delta suburbs he lost Henry and dropped 7 points in Republican stronghold of Fayette. Outside of Atlanta Trump dropped 4 points in Augusta's suburban Columbia County, dropped 6 in UGA's Clarke County, dropped 2 in Savannah's Chatham County. I find it ironic that he failed to make any gains more than 1% from Romney in Industrial counties of Bibb, Calhoun, Dougherty, Floyd, Muscogee, and Whitfield.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2016, 03:02:06 PM »

Because Georgia is trending faster than North Carolina, I feel the Democrats need to focus more on Georgia than North Carolina. 

North Carolina just threw out its incumbent Republican governor and vote in a Democrat even while Hillary lost the state.

When was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Georgia again?
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American2020
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« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2016, 04:56:40 PM »

Because Georgia is trending faster than North Carolina, I feel the Democrats need to focus more on Georgia than North Carolina. 

North Carolina just threw out its incumbent Republican governor and vote in a Democrat even while Hillary lost the state.

When was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Georgia again?

1992
Bill Clinton won Georgia against Poppy Bush.
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Downnice
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2016, 06:00:41 PM »

Democrats should focus on Georgia and North Carolina, can not see them winning Arizona unless it is a landslide
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2016, 06:09:39 PM »

Because Georgia is trending faster than North Carolina, I feel the Democrats need to focus more on Georgia than North Carolina. 

North Carolina just threw out its incumbent Republican governor and vote in a Democrat even while Hillary lost the state.

When was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Georgia again?

2006 (Agriculture Commissioner)

They also won Attorney General in 2006.

And not directed to TNVol specifically, but using the argument "When was the last time [party] won a statewide office in [state] is a very stupid argument with regards to presidential elections. West Virginia elected a Democrat statewide last month and no one is saying it will be competitive in 2020. Governor races are not presidential races.  Next several gubernatorial elections I could see Democrats winning Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, etc...
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Green Line
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2016, 06:12:01 PM »

Arizona was so close because a lot of establishment-type Republicans turned against him in the suburbs.  These are the people most likely to come back to him in a re-election campaign, even if he's losing the WWC in MI and MN.  I don't except Arizona to be a complete tossup.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: December 04, 2016, 10:18:35 PM »

And not directed to TNVol specifically, but using the argument "When was the last time [party] won a statewide office in [state] is a very stupid argument with regards to presidential elections. West Virginia elected a Democrat statewide last month and no one is saying it will be competitive in 2020. Governor races are not presidential races.  Next several gubernatorial elections I could see Democrats winning Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, etc...

The inverse is not true though.

When is the last time that the president is able to win a state that his own local state party cannot win?

Okay, maybe Florida, but that's about it.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: December 04, 2016, 10:34:58 PM »

And not directed to TNVol specifically, but using the argument "When was the last time [party] won a statewide office in [state] is a very stupid argument with regards to presidential elections. West Virginia elected a Democrat statewide last month and no one is saying it will be competitive in 2020. Governor races are not presidential races.  Next several gubernatorial elections I could see Democrats winning Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, etc...

The inverse is not true though.

When is the last time that the president is able to win a state that his own local state party cannot win?

Okay, maybe Florida, but that's about it.

Wouldn't that mostly be the case because states that are entirely dominated by one party at the state level are pretty rare overall though?   

There's a "few" (Florida, Hawaii, and Alabama to name a couple) but not many.   State races become very favorable to the party that doesn't hold the White House historically.
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Lachi
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« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2016, 04:26:14 AM »

All I am going to say about this is that I think that when the democrats win again, either AZ or GA will be part of it.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2021, 06:56:41 PM »

*bump*
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mileslunn
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« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2021, 09:31:40 PM »

It happened.  I always thought Democrats had a shot at both states in 2020, but obviously thought Trump still could hold both too.  Both trending blue and it was more a matter of when not if.  I think had Trump not messed up so badly or Democrats had a weaker candidate, Trump could have held both but they would have flipped eventually.  It would have just postponed it.
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