OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

That’s a fair point, but there are plenty of other issues with Kucinich.

Oh sure. To be perfectly honest with myself the only reason I’m tepidly pro Cordray is because he’s a tepid kinda guy, you know?

[BuckeyeNut]

The Plain Dealer is reporting that an unnamed Republican operative has seen independent (read: Republican Party) polling that has the Republican primary race between DeWine and Taylor down to a difference of "low-double-digits," while Taylor's campaign says their internal polling has it down to the single digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This only makes me support Kucinich even more.

A Trump supporter supporting a pro-Trump candidate is no surprise.

[Chief Justice Keef]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

I await the swift liberal condemnation of the Obama administration's friendly relationship with the Saudis.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

I await the swift liberal condemnation of the Obama administration's friendly relationship with the Saudis.

How stupid is this post?
How ignorant of how government works you must be to actually believe that nonsense?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

I await the swift liberal condemnation of the Obama administration's friendly relationship with the Saudis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Logical fallacy.

(also incredibly ignorant of how international diplomacy works.)

[BuckeyeNut]

We have our pre-primary finance reports!

R Governor

DeWine: Started with $10.5m, raised $1.7m and loaned $24k, spent $4.8 m, has $7.4m on hand.
Taylor: Started with $3.5m, raised $419k and loaned $3m, spent $4.9m, has $1.9m on hand.

D Governor

Cordray: Started with $2.0m, raised $1.3m, spent $1.7m, has $1.6m on hand.
Kucinich: Started with $0, raised $592k, spent $317k, has $274k on hand.
Schiavoni: Started with $276k, raised $87k, spent $290k, has $72k on hand.
O’Neill: Started with $0, raised $68k and loaned $16k, spent $78k, has $5k on hand.

Attorney General

Dettelbach (D): Started with $1.5m, raised $830k, spent $204k, has $2.1m on hand.
Yost (R): Started with $2.0m, raised $663k, spent $50k, has $2.6m on hand.

Secretary of State

Clyde (D): Started with $634k, raised $441k, spent $176k, has $900k on hand.
LaRose (R): Started with $839k, raised $118k, spent $111k, has $846k on hand.

Treasurer

Richardson (D): Started with $376k, raised $348k, spent $155k, has $569k on hand.
Sprauge (R): Started with $518k, raised $117k, spent $428k, has $208k on hand.

Auditor

Space (D): Started with $225k, raised $351k, spent $146k, has $430k on hand.
Faber (R): Started with $675k, raised $206k, spent $114k, has $767k on hand.

Takeaways: DeWine outraised Cordray by $500k, but is spending BIG against Mary Taylor in the Republican primary. A recent piece in The Cleveland Plain Dealer reported a Republican operative saying private polling had the race down into low double digits. Mary Taylor said her internals had it down into the single digits. DeWine's reporting must reflect the same.

On the down ticket, every Democrat once again outraised their Republican opponents. Which is really impressive. I'm open about being a hack, but I really do love the Democratic down ticket. Dettelbach continues to be a machine, but Clyde has really come into her own there as well. And Richardson isn't far behind. Space was the only Democrat to raise more this cycle than he had on hand last quarter and broke the state record for Auditor fundraising in a single cycle.

[BuckeyeNut]

GOP strategist Neil Clark — who was the mastermind behind taking the State Senate in ‘84 — is saying he expects Republicans to lose between 10 and 12 seats in the House this November. If the GOP were to lose 12 seats, the margin would be 45 D - 54 R. An easy number to win back the majority in 2020, should it be a favorable year. Clark’s earlier predicition was 6 - 8 seats. If Ohio Democrats were to only take six seats, that would put the margin at 39 D - 60 R, not great by any means, but enough to break the supermajority, which is a must if we elect a Democratic governor.

[Usili]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Typical far-left loon. Just like Jill Stein.

[Badger]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Typical far-left loon. Just like Jill Stein.

[Ohioguy29]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wowwwwww. This is the kinda thing that could sway a lot of young progressives away from him (not all kinds, just some kinds.) If I knew any Kucinich supporters down here this could be a useful quote. But I don't know any; if he wins it won't be thanks to us.

[Ohioguy29]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

[Ohioguy29]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

[BuckeyeNut]

If anyone is interested, these are my post-Q1 financial filing predictions for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate.

Two Senate seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 3 are more Republican. Eight House seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 22 are more Republican. Of the 25 seats that became Republican, eight were optimistic "Very Likely Republican" seats becoming Safe.

[Ohioguy29]

If anyone is interested, these are my post-Q1 financial filing predictions for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate.

Two Senate seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 3 are more Republican. Eight House seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 22 are more Republican. Of the 25 seats that became Republican, eight were optimistic "Very Likely Republican" seats becoming Safe.

I'm gonna wait until after primaries and a second quarter of fundraising to make my own predictions. I'm factoring money into it less than you do, but it's not irrelevant and maaaaan did some candidates have disappointing fundraising figures. Aziz Ahmad, Adam VanHo, Dan Gordon, what the hell happened?

Speaking of money, I'm much less optimistic about HD-88 than you are. It's a winnable district on paper and Rachel Crooks has raised a ton of money, but all the money in the world can't help you if you're an awful fit for the district.

[BuckeyeNut]

If anyone is interested, these are my post-Q1 financial filing predictions for the Ohio House and Ohio Senate.

Two Senate seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 3 are more Republican. Eight House seats are more Democratic than my initial predictions, and 22 are more Republican. Of the 25 seats that became Republican, eight were optimistic "Very Likely Republican" seats becoming Safe.

I'm gonna wait until after primaries and a second quarter of fundraising to make my own predictions. I'm factoring money into it less than you do, but it's not irrelevant and maaaaan did some candidates have disappointing fundraising figures. Aziz Ahmad, Adam VanHo, Dan Gordon, what the hell happened?

Speaking of money, I'm much less optimistic about HD-88 than you are. It's a winnable district on paper and Rachel Crooks has raised a ton of money, but all the money in the world can't help you if you're an awful fit for the district.

I’ll update again after Q2 and the primaries, but I’m fine with having rolling, quarterly predictions. 

VanHo was never going anywhere, but Ahmad and Gordon, in particular, are disappointing. Youthful city councilors can make great candidates for the state house, but I think this demonstrates the struggle of being a ward councilor. I’m sure Gordon would raise more money if he represented the city at-large.

Originally, I shared your skepticism of Crooks, but she seems to be a fine fit for the district. Yes, she gained some national fame from her being one of Trump’s victims, but she doesn’t prominently feature it on her website, and it doesn’t seem to be how she’s orienting her campaign. It’s probably too early to say this, but she reminds me of Danica Roem: she’s garnered national attention and fundraising derived from her bio, but is running on the issues in district.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

I await the swift liberal condemnation of the Obama administration's friendly relationship with the Saudis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism

Logical fallacy.

(also incredibly ignorant of how international diplomacy works.)

You're right, that's not how international diplomacy works.

I await the swift condemnation of the Bush family's close personal relationship with the House of Saud.



As for whataboutism, that's an incredibly dumb charge to level. The simple truth is that people get away with cordial and financially complicated relationships with absolutely brutal regimes by virtue of the fact that said people and said regimes are in vogue in washington.

While it's an indication that Kucinich is a sorta slimy Gingrich of the Left, he's not unique in that respect, nor is the Assad regime for cultivating DC figures to try to gain cover for their crimes.

Kucinich specifically catching flak for this is not a factor of Kucinich being bad or his apology for authoritarian brutality unusual, it's a factor of the foreign policy establishment disliking Kucinich and for Kucinich having backed a loser. And I think that it's important to point that out. 

[BuckeyeNut]

The primaries are a week away, and the Republican primary is getting nastier still. Fellow Republican, State Rep. Mike Duffey has filed an official complaint alleging the $3 million dollar loan Mary Taylor's husband made to her campaign is a violation of election falsification laws. If found guilty, Mr. Taylor could serve a year in prison.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/990972966354726913

[Karpatsky]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/990972966354726913

Every day Kucinich further tests my pledge to not vote for Republicans until Trump is out.

[publicunofficial]

For the record I'm not a Kuchinich supporter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if he won. I'd be the happiest boy on Atlas.

[publicunofficial]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

This is single most accurate sentence I've ever read about Ohio btw.

[Chief Justice Keef]

For the record I'm not a Kuchinich supporter, but I think it would be absolutely hilarious if he won. I'd be the happiest boy on Atlas.

I'm in the same boat. He's a little too kooky, but the meltdowns from some of the red avatars here would be hilarious.