Strongest Dem swings outside of Utah and Idaho

[nclib]

So far, this is what I've found:

Arlington, VA 19.4%
Falls Church (city), VA 18.53%
Lexington (city), VA 17.69%
Los Alamos, NM 16.54%
Forsyth, GA 15.45%
Fairfax (county), VA 15.32%
Teton, WY 15.05%
Gwinnett, GA 14.99%
Orange, CA 14.81%
Collin, TX 14.74%
Hamilton, IN 14.71%
Travis, TX 14.7%
Johnson, KS 14.69%
Cobb, GA 14.58%
Alexandria (city), VA 14.49%

[Matty]

Hillary won Newport Beach, CA by 6%.

[mencken]

Hillary won Newport Beach, CA by 6%.

I am skeptical, given that there is still a red hue on the city (albeit a much pinker shade of red than typical)

[SingingAnalyst]

Cambridge, MA; Manhattan, NY; Westchester Co, NY; and San Francisco, CA come to mind, not in terms of the size of the pro-D swing (there were not many GOP votes to lose in 2012, yet many were lost in 2016), but the size and cultural significance of these places.

[nclib]

Orange CA is close at 14.9% to the ones I listed above.
Orange FL and Fairfield CT are not close at 6.2% and 9.26%, respectively.

[nclib]

More places to be added to the OP. Though VA's system of separating cities from counties makes stronger swings possible.

Lexington (city), VA 17.7%
Fairfax (county), VA 15.3%

Edit: and Los Alamos is 16.5%, furthering the idea of independent cities being more prone to swings. 5 out of 9 on the original list are independent cities.

[Adam Griffin]

BTW - the Arlington and Alexandria numbers demonstrate how Virginia is gone for Republicans. 

This is what typically happens in Virginia that is spurring population growth. 

Step 1) People move into DC from wherever.

Step 2) They move to Arlington/Alexandria (sometimes this is Step 1)

Step 3) They want more space and move to Fairfax

Step 4) They want more land and move to a county further out.

Those insane D vote margins in Arlington and Alexandria will be Fairfax voters in 5-10 years.  They will also be replaced by DC people who are super liberal.

NOVA = getting more populated + getting more Democratic.  Republicans have NOTHING to counter this in Virginia.  They are already maxed out downstate and Southwest Virginia is losing population.  This is why I am 100% confident Republicans won't win Virginia anytime soon.

I mean, if one were to look at this map of VA - understanding the concept of swing but not necessarily the exact population density of the state - then they'd likely assume that the state was won by the Democrat by less than it was 4 years ago, if the Democrat won at all.

I think most would be shocked to learn that the Democrat won the state by 1.5 points more than the Democrat did four years ago. That swing map really says it all.

[DPKdebator]

I'm honestly surprised that Norfolk County, MA (not sure if OP is talking about the town or the county) did such a hardline swing for Clinton, because almost everyone I know is a Trump supporter at the very least can't stand Hillary Clinton around here.

[nclib]

Wow...I was referring to the county.

[nclib]

More counties in TX and GA to add to the list:

Forsyth, GA 15.45
Gwinnett, GA 14.99
Collin, TX 14.74
Travis, TX 14.7
Johnson, KS 14.69

In the list there are suburbs of WDC, Atlanta, L.A., Dallas, Indy, KCK, the city of Austin, Los Alamos, a ski resort (Teton WY), and somehow Lexington (IC) VA.

[danny]

Others not listed here with a larger than 14.49 swing:
Los Alamos, NM 16.54
Hamilton, IN 14.71
Cobb, GA 14.58

(edit: Los Alamos was already listed)

[nclib]

I'm honestly surprised that Norfolk County, MA (not sure if OP is talking about the town or the county) did such a hardline swing for Clinton, because almost everyone I know is a Trump supporter at the very least can't stand Hillary Clinton around here.

Wow...I was referring to the county.

Now I'm finding Norfolk with a smaller swing (12.66) though still the largest in Mass. Since the Mass. counties are not listed on Atlas, I used the 2012 Atlas, and 2016 results from POLITICO which appears to be the only place with county results rather than town, and I don't know how recently it was updated.

[nclib]

I'm honestly surprised that Norfolk County, MA (not sure if OP is talking about the town or the county) did such a hardline swing for Clinton, because almost everyone I know is a Trump supporter at the very least can't stand Hillary Clinton around here.

Wow...I was referring to the county.

Now I'm finding Norfolk with a smaller swing (12.66) though still the largest in Mass. Since the Mass. counties are not listed on Atlas, I used the 2012 Atlas, and 2016 results from POLITICO which appears to be the only place with county results rather than town, and I don't know how recently it was updated.

Now the Mass. numbers are posted on Atlas - Norfolk swung 12.53 - still the largest in Mass. but drops off the top list.

[Young Conservative]

BTW - the Arlington and Alexandria numbers demonstrate how Virginia is gone for Republicans. 

This is what typically happens in Virginia that is spurring population growth. 

Step 1) People move into DC from wherever.

Step 2) They move to Arlington/Alexandria (sometimes this is Step 1)

Step 3) They want more space and move to Fairfax

Step 4) They want more land and move to a county further out.

Those insane D vote margins in Arlington and Alexandria will be Fairfax voters in 5-10 years.  They will also be replaced by DC people who are super liberal.

NOVA = getting more populated + getting more Democratic.  Republicans have NOTHING to counter this in Virginia.  They are already maxed out downstate and Southwest Virginia is losing population.  This is why I am 100% confident Republicans won't win Virginia anytime soon.

Youre analysis is the same kind of overly confident mindset that led to democratic losses this year.

[Smash255]

I'm honestly surprised that Norfolk County, MA (not sure if OP is talking about the town or the county) did such a hardline swing for Clinton, because almost everyone I know is a Trump supporter at the very least can't stand Hillary Clinton around here.

Considering it is basically tied with Middlesex (which also swung fairly strongly towards Clinton) for the highest levels of education in the state, it isn't surprising.  Most of the counties (though not all) on the list are also pretty much in line with some of the highest educated counties in the country.

[SingingAnalyst]

Washtenaw County, MI: 6% (from 67-31 Obama to 69-27 Clinton)
Birmingham, MI: 22% (from 55-44 Romney to 52-41 Clinton)
Bloomfield Hills, MI: 23% (from 67-33 Romney to 53-42 Trump)

[AGA]

BTW - the Arlington and Alexandria numbers demonstrate how Virginia is gone for Republicans. 

This is what typically happens in Virginia that is spurring population growth. 

Step 1) People move into DC from wherever.

Step 2) They move to Arlington/Alexandria (sometimes this is Step 1)

Step 3) They want more space and move to Fairfax

Step 4) They want more land and move to a county further out.

Those insane D vote margins in Arlington and Alexandria will be Fairfax voters in 5-10 years.  They will also be replaced by DC people who are super liberal.

NOVA = getting more populated + getting more Democratic.  Republicans have NOTHING to counter this in Virginia.  They are already maxed out downstate and Southwest Virginia is losing population.  This is why I am 100% confident Republicans won't win Virginia anytime soon.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by about 2 points. Kaine helped her in Virginia, and Trump was a horrendously bad fit for NOVA. She still won by a little over 5 points, which is not a huge margin. A Republican win in Virginia is definitely not out of the realm of possibilities. This kind of overconfidence coming from Democrats is part of the reason why Trump won.