2020 MT US Senate race

[I’m not Stu]

Will Daines win in 2020 if Trump ends up being an unpopular one-term president?

[publicunofficial]

Depends on a lot of things. Democratic recruitment will need to be strong, Trump needs to be unpopular not just nationwide but in Montana specifically, ect.

It's hard to gauge how strong Daines is as a candidate. He doesn't seem remarkable, and his only test so far was against a last-minute recruit in a bad year for Democrats. But unremarkable Republicans can hold down red territory no problem. He's certainly not a Conrad Burns, at the very least.

[morgieb]

Depends. Though I struggle to see him being an underdog unless Bullock runs and Trump is unpopular.

[I’m not Stu]

Bullock will challenge Daines in 2020?

[I’m not Stu]

Daines will likely keep his seat. Didn't Conrad Burns lose his seat largely because he made Islamophobic comments about taxi drivers?

[Orser67]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

[publicunofficial]

Daines will likely keep his seat. Didn't Conrad Burns lose his seat largely because he made Islamophobic comments about taxi drivers?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conrad_Burns#Controversies

But yeah, a Bullock vs. Daines race is a toss-up IMO

[windjammer]

I think so

[Figueira]

It depends on how badly Trump does, and how polarized things are (especially in Montana). The 2018 Senate race will also give us a clue; if Tester loses and it isn't another 2002 nationwide, it's hard to see Bullock winning in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

[I’m not Stu]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

You are correct. Daines would likely be more vulnerable in a presidential year.

[Figueira]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

It's a Trump midterm, but you are correct.

[I’m not Stu]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

It's a Trump midterm, but you are correct.

Daines will be up for a second term in a presidential year.

[Figueira]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

It's a Trump midterm, but you are correct.

Daines will be up for a second term in a presidential year.

Read the posts I quoted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK, NC and CO are the most vulnerable seats

[Maxwell]

Daines in 2020 will almost certainly be the wild card - all dependent on Steve Bullock's decision. If Bullock jumps in, its a competitive race. If someone runs just to fill in the spot, like, say, Denise Juneau, then it's probably safe Daines.

[Figueira]

I don't expect this to happen, but what if Schweitzer decided to run?

[I’m not Stu]

I don't expect this to happen, but what if Schweitzer decided to run?

Schweitzer vs. Daines would likely be a tossup.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I don't expect this to happen, but what if Schweitzer decided to run?

Schweitzer vs. Daines would likely be a tossup.

Schweitzer's time was 2014, but he was afraid the oppo research would uncover some skeletons in his closet, so he ruled it out.  He's done with politics for good, I think.

[windjammer]

Daines will probably be reelected

[I’m not Stu]

Senate races aren't gubernatorial races. Yes, Democrats are competitive in Montana, but they need a Roy Blunt/Conrad Burns type Republican to have a chance. Daines isn't that.

That is true. Daines doesn't make crazy remarks like Burns did.

[Orser67]

Daines could have been vulnerable in the 2018 mid-terms, but he'll probably win in 2020 unless Trump loses in a 1984-style blowout

I don't see why he would be more vulnerable in a midterm year than in a presidential year.

I'd argue that the "anti-president's party" effect of mid-terms is generally going to be stronger than the "pro-Republican" effect caused by lower turnout. The last three mid-terms have been disastrous for the president's party. If not for 9/11 and the Clinton impeachment, I suspect that the last six mid-terms would have been disastrous for the president's party.

Also, discounting the case of Ted Stevens, the last time Democrats knocked off an incumbent in a red state was the 2006 Bush mid-terms (in Missouri and Montana).