County Streaks Ended in 2016

[ElectionsGuy]

Looking at all the counties that flipped

Alabama

Barbour: Dem since 2012
Conecuh: Dem since 2012

Arkansas

Woodruff: Dem since 1976

California

Nevada: Rep since 2012
Orange: Rep since 1940

Colorado

Chaffee: Dem since 2012
Huerfano: Dem since 2008
Conejos: Dem since 2004
Las Animas: Dem since 1976
Pueblo: Dem since 1976

Connecticut

Windham: Dem since 1992

Delaware

Kent: Dem since 2008

Florida

Pinellas: Dem since 2008
St Lucie: Dem since 1996
Jefferson: Dem since 1992
Monroe: Dem since 1992

Georgia

Early: Dem since 2012
Peach: Dem since 2008
Baker: Dem since 1976
Dooly: Dem since 1976
Quitman: Dem since 1976
Twiggs: Dem since 1976

Henry: Rep since 1984
Cobb: Rep since 1980
Gwinnett: Rep since 1980

Illlinois

Carroll: Dem since 2008
Henry: Dem since 2008
Jo Daviess: Dem since 2008
Warren: Dem since 2008
Whiteside: Dem since 1992
Fulton: Dem since 1988
Henderson: Dem since 1988
Knox: Dem since 1988
Mercer: Dem since 1988
Putnam: Dem since 1988
Alexander: Dem since 1976

Indiana

Delaware: Dem since 2008
Perry: Dem since 2008
Porter: Dem since 2008
Vigo: Dem since 2008
LaPorte: Dem since 1992

Iowa

Woodbury: Dem since 2012
Allamakee: Dem since 2008
Bremer: Dem since 2008
Cedar: Dem since 2008
Louisa: Dem since 2008
Marshall: Dem since 2008
Union: Dem since 2008
Fayette: Dem since 2004
Jasper: Dem since 2004
Jefferson: Dem since 2004
Poweshieck: Dem since 2004
Winneshiek: Dem since 2004
Buchanan: Dem since 1988
Chickasaw: Dem since 1988
Clarke: Dem since 1988
Clayton: Dem since 1988
Clinton: Dem since 1988
Floyd: Dem since 1988
Howard: Dem since 1988
Jackson: Dem since 1988
Jones: Dem since 1988
Mitchell: Dem since 1988
Muscatine: Dem since 1988
Tama: Dem since 1988
Boone: Dem since 1984
Cerro Gordo: Dem since 1984
Lee: Dem since 1984
Wapello: Dem since 1984
Webster: Dem since 1984
Worth: Dem since 1984
Des Moines: Dem since 1976
Dubuque: Dem since 1960

Kentucky

Franklin: Dem since 2012
Elliott: Dem since 1872*

Maine

Washington: Dem since 2008
Penobscot: Dem since 2004
Somerset: Dem since 1996**
Aroostook: Dem since 1992
Androscoggin: Dem since 1992
Franklin: Dem since 1992
Kennebec: Dem since 1992
Oxford: Dem since 1992

Maryland

Somerset: Dem since 2012

Anne Arundel: Rep since 1968

Michigan

Calhoun: Dem since 2008
Eaton: Dem since 2008
Macomb: Dem since 2008
Manistee: Dem since 2008
Monroe: Dem since 2008
Shiawassee: Dem since 2008
Van Buren: Dem since 2008
Isabella: Dem since 1992
Bay: Dem since 1988
Lake: Dem since 1988
Saginaw: Dem since 1988
Gogebic: Dem since 1976

Minnesota

Clay: Dem since 2008
Houston: Dem since 2008
Traverse: Dem since 2008
Beltrami: Dem since 2004
Blue Earth: Dem since 2004
Chippewa: Dem since 2004
Kittson: Dem since 2004
Koochiching: Dem since 2004
Mahnomen: Dem since 2004
Nicollet: Dem since 2004
Norman: Dem since 2004
Fillmore: Dem since 1992
Winona: Dem since 1992
Lac Qui Parle: Dem since 1988
Freeborn: Dem since 1984
Rice: Dem since 1976
Mower: Dem since 1964
Swift: Dem since 1956
Itasca: Dem since 1932

Mississippi

Benton: Dem since 2012
Warren: Dem since 2012
Chickasaw: Dem since 2008
Panola: Dem since 2008

Montana

Blaine: Dem since 2008
Hill: Dem since 2008
Roosevelt: Dem since 1988

Gallatin: Rep since 2012

Nebraska

Thurston: Dem since 2004

Douglas: Rep since 2012
Lancaster: Rep since 2012

New Hampshire

Hillsborough: Dem since 2008
Coos: Dem since 2004
Sullivan: Dem since 2004

New Jersey

Salem: Dem since 2008
Gloucester: Dem since 1992

New Mexico

Colfax: Dem since 2008
Hidalgo: Dem since 2008
Valencia: Dem since 2008

New York

Richmond: Dem since 2012
Cayuga: Dem since 2008
Cortland: Dem since 2008
Dutchess: Dem since 2008
Essex: Dem since 2008
Madison: Dem since 2008
Orange: Dem since 2008
Oswego: Dem since 2008
Otsego: Dem since 2008
Saratoga: Dem since 2008
Seneca: Dem since 2008
Sullivan: Dem since 2008
Warren: Dem since 2008
Washington: Dem since 2008
Suffolk: Dem since 1996
Franklin: Dem since 1992
Rensselaer: Dem since 1992
St Lawrence: Dem since 1992
Broome: Dem since 1988
Niagara: Dem since 1988

North Carolina

Nash: Dem since 2012
Bladen: Dem since 2008
Granville: Dem since 2008
Martin: Dem since 2008
Gates: Dem since 1976
Richmond: Dem since 1976
Robeson: Dem since 1976

Watauga: Rep since 2012

North Dakota

Ransom: Dem since 2008
Sargent: Dem since 2008
Benson: Dem since 2004
Steele: Dem since 2004

Ohio

Ottawa: Dem since 2008
Sandusky: Dem since 2008
Wood: Dem since 2008
Stark: Dem since 2004
Erie: Dem since 1992
Montgomery: Dem since 1992
Portage: Dem since 1992
Ashtabula: Dem since 1988
Trumbull: Dem since 1976

Oregon

Tillamook: Dem since 2008
Columbia: Dem since 1932

Pennsylvania

Luzerne: Dem since 1992
Northampton: Dem since 1992
Erie: Dem since 1988

Chester: Rep since 2012

Rhode Island

Kent: Dem since 1988

South Carolina

Darlington: Dem since 2012
Barnwell: Dem since 2008
Calhoun: Dem since 2008
Chester: Dem since 2008
Colleton: Dem since 2008
McCormick: Dem since 1976

South Dakota

Marshall: Dem since 2008
Day: Dem since 2004
Corson: Dem since 2004
Roberts: Dem since 2004
Ziebach: Dem since 2004

Tennessee

Hardeman: Dem since 1992

Texas

Jefferson: Dem since 1976

Kenedy: Rep since 2012
Fort Bend: Rep since 1968

Utah

Salt Lake: Rep since 2012
Summit: Rep since 2012

Vermont

Essex: Dem since 2008

Virginia

Buckingham: Dem since 2008
Caroline: Dem since 2008
Chesapeake City: Dem since 2008
Essex: Dem since 2008
Westmoreland: Dem since 2008
Nelson: Dem since 2004
Covington City: Dem since 1988

Montgomery: Rep since 2012

Washington

Clallam: Dem since 2008
Mason: Dem since 1988
Cowlitz: Dem since 1984
Pacific: Dem since 1956
Grays Harbor: Dem since 1932

Whitman: Rep since 2012

Wisconsin

Columbia: Dem since 2008
Door: Dem since 2008
Forest: Dem since 2008
Juneau: Dem since 2008
Lincoln: Dem since 2008
Marquette: Dem since 2008
Racine: Dem since 2008
Richland: Dem since 2008
Sawyer: Dem since 2008
Winnebago: Dem since 2008
Price: Dem since 2004
Grant: Dem since 1992
Lafayette: Dem since 1992
Adams: Dem since 1988
Buffalo: Dem since 1988
Crawford: Dem since 1988
Dunn: Dem since 1988
Jackson: Dem since 1988
Trempealeau: Dem since 1988
Vernon: Dem since 1988
Kenosha: Dem since 1976
Pepin: Dem since 1976

*Has never voted Republican before 2016
**Voted for Perot, last voted Republican in 1988.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A yuge one...
Elliott County, formed in 1869, first voted D in 1872, voted Trump this year.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's some of the longest streaks broken

1. Elliott, KY (Dem for 140 years)
2. Itasca, MN (Dem for 80 years)
2. Columbia, OR (Dem for 80 years)
2. Grays Harbor, WA (Dem for 80 years)
5. Orange, CA (Rep for 72 years)
6. Swift, MN (Dem for 56 years)
6. Pacific, WA (Dem for 56 years)
8. Dubuque, IA (Dem for 52 years)
9. Mower, MN (Dem for 48 years)
10. Anne Arundel, MD (Rep for 44 years)
10. Fort Bend, TX (Rep for 44 years)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama won Franklin, NY by 26 points last time. And yet a New York Democrat managed to lose it. Note that neighboring Clinton county was Bernie's best county in the state in the primary, and was almost another Obama 2012 by 26 point county for her to lose, but she barely won it.

[Miles]

Last I checked, all the McCain -> Obama counties flipped back to Trump.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

The anomalous zone is finally gone! For those wondering what that is, it's an area comprised of Eastern Iowa, Western Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northwestern Illinois that is mostly rural white christians who for some reason kept on voting for democrats year after year. It will be interesting to see if they can get it back in 2020 or if the rust belt realignment is going to be lasting.

[Calthrina950]

Here's some of the longest streaks broken

1. Elliott, KY (Dem for 140 years)
2. Itasca, MN (Dem for 80 years)
2. Columbia, OR (Dem for 80 years)
2. Grays Harbor, WA (Dem for 80 years)
5. Orange, CA (Rep for 72 years)
6. Swift, MN (Dem for 56 years)
6. Pacific, WA (Dem for 56 years)
8. Dubuque, IA (Dem for 52 years)
9. Mower, MN (Dem for 48 years)
10. Anne Arundel, MD (Rep for 44 years)
10. Fort Bend, TX (Rep for 44 years)

Elliott County is in many ways a parallel to the state of Vermont. Both Vermont and Elliott County are overwhelmingly white, predominantly rural areas. And both supported one political party, at both the national and local levels, for generations prior to flipping. Vermont voted Republican in every presidential election from 1856-1960, and for non-Democratic candidates (National Republicans, Whigs, and the Anti-Masonic Party) from 1828-52. Elliott County, of course, went Democratic in every election from 1872-2012. For 132 years, Vermont never voted Democratic, and for 140 years, Elliott County never voted Republican. But the changing times eventually affected them, and they broke with their prior party heritage. And when they did, they did so by landslide margins. Vermont went 66-34 for Johnson in 1964, when he became the first Democrat to ever win it. And Elliott County went 70-27 for Trump in 2016, when he became the first Republican ever to win it.

Another similarity is that even in the same presidential election in which they bolted for the opposing party, both remained loyal to their ancestral party at the downballot level. Vermont re-elected its incumbent Republican Senator, Winston Prouty, in 1964, who was up for reelection that year, and Elliott County voted for Jim Gray, Rand Paul's Democratic opponent in the Senate race. One point of divergence, however is this. Vermont did not firmly realign to the Democrats until 1992 at the national level, while it is clear that Elliott County is gone for the Democrats. However, Elliott may continue to support Democratic candidates at the downballot level for a few more years. We will see if Andy Beshear manages to win it against Matt Bevin in November.

[Politician]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

[Matty]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

regarding chesterfield, what was causing the GOP decline before trump? This wasn't an area that was seeing an influx of DC employees, so what was happening here?

[morgankingsley]

I had no idea that many Iowa counties flipped

[DINGO Joe]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

regarding chesterfield, what was causing the GOP decline before trump? This wasn't an area that was seeing an influx of DC employees, so what was happening here?

Increasing diversity and high education levels

[Mr. Smith]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

What about Kent, MI?

[Matty]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

regarding chesterfield, what was causing the GOP decline before trump? This wasn't an area that was seeing an influx of DC employees, so what was happening here?

Increasing diversity and high education levels

In that county a fast growing county attracting new residents? I always thought of chesterfield as being a "old money" good ole boy county.

[One Term Floridian]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

regarding chesterfield, what was causing the GOP decline before trump? This wasn't an area that was seeing an influx of DC employees, so what was happening here?

Increasing diversity and high education levels

This. And the Richmond suburbs have been trending D since at least the start of the millennium, but the pace has really quickened since Trump’s election. Pretty confident that Chesterfield will flip next year for both Warner and the national Dem ticket

[TML]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

What about Kent, MI?

It went D in 2008 for the first time since 1964.

[538Electoral]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

How about a list of counties that you think Trump could flip that voted for Democrats since before 2000.

[Politician]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

regarding chesterfield, what was causing the GOP decline before trump? This wasn't an area that was seeing an influx of DC employees, so what was happening here?

Interestingly enough, pre-trump Maricopa was actually trending red and Johnson was barely trending blue.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

How about a list of counties that you think Trump could flip that voted for Democrats since before 2000.

Probably some random blue counties in the plains or in Minnesota/Iowa

[538Electoral]

Here are 3 counties in Ohio that have been Democratic that I think Trump could win, Especially if it's a great night for him.

-Lorain
-Mahoning
-Maybe Summit if Trump wins by 15% statewide and 3-4% nationally.

[Calthrina950]

Here are 3 counties in Ohio that have been Democratic that I think Trump could win, Especially if it's a great night for him.

-Lorain
-Mahoning
-Maybe Summit if Trump wins by 15% statewide and 3-4% nationally.

Wasn't Nixon in 1972 the last Republican to win Mahoning County? I think it is definitely possible that Trump could win it, since he came very close there against Clinton. And I do believe that Tim Ryan will become vulnerable sometime during the next decade, as traditionally Democratic white working-class, blue collar areas, continue to abandon the Party.

[Tekken_Guy]

Some long county streaks that could potentially end in 2020:
Maricopa, AZ (R since 1952)
Seminole, FL (R since 1952)
Ada, ID (R since 1952)
Johnson, KS (R since 1920)
Riley, KS (R since forever)
Chesterfield, VA (R since 1952)

How about Morris County, NJ? Hasn’t voted Dem since LBJ’s landslide.

[Xeuma]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

[Politician]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

No it won't. The Democrats are favored to win there.

[Xeuma]

Lorain voted Clinton by a few hundred votes. Its streak will undoubtedly end in 2020, but it shouldn't be on this list.

No it won't. The Democrats are favored to win there.

I don't know about that. This county divided between rural areas and Cleveland exurbs. Elyria and Lorain are cities full of the average Trump voter. Really, if anything, its amazing Clinton managed a win here.