Philadelphia + Suburban Counties, Results and Swing Maps

[Nordstrand]

Here's a map I just made of the unofficial election results and swing from 2012 for Philadelphia and its four suburban counties.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Great work!


So it looks like some portions of PA-8 (specifically in Montgomery County) swung towards Hillary.  Do you have the exact numbers for all the CDs in Greater Philli?  We're putting together a national map in this thread.

[Nordstrand]

Great work!


So it looks like some portions of PA-8 (specifically in Montgomery County) swung towards Hillary.  Do you have the exact numbers for all the CDs in Greater Philli?  We're putting together a national map in this thread.

Thanks! The only one I have (because it was easiest to calculate) is PA-8: Trump 48.30 to Clinton 47.88.

Some regional Philly stats:

Biggest Swings to Trump
1.   Tinicum (Delaware) – 32.42%
2.   Trainer (Delaware) – 30.73%
3.   Eddystone (Delaware) – 29.10%
4.   Norwood (Delaware) – 24.55%
5.   Marcus Hook (Delaware) – 23.70%
6.   Tullytown (Bucks) – 23.24%
7.   Ward 45 (Northeast Philadelphia) – 21.29%
8.   Lower Chichester (Delaware) – 21.15%
9.   Bristol borough (Bucks) – 20.02%
10.   Bristol township (Bucks) – 19.07%
11.   Ward 66 (Northeast Philadelphia) – 18.56%
12.   Green Lane (Montgomery) – 18.45%
13.   West Pottsgrove (Montgomery) – 18.23%
14.   Clifton Heights (Delaware) – 16.80%
15.   Penndel (Bucks) – 16.27%
16.   Ward 65 (Northeast Philadelphia) – 15.78%
17.   Ward 64 (Northeast Philadelphia) – 15.25%
18.   Ward 39 (South Philadelphia) – 15.21%
19.   Hulmeville (Bucks) – 14.78%
20.   Upland (Delaware) – 14.76%

Biggest Swings to Clinton
1.   Birmingham (Chester) – 29.80%
2.   Easttown (Chester) – 27.91%
3.   Upper Makefield (Bucks) – 25.38%
4.   Radnor (Delaware) – 24.33%
5.   Tredyffrin (Chester) – 22.75%
6.   Bryn Athyn (Montgomery) – 21.89%
7.   Pocopson (Chester) – 21.56%
8.   West Pikeland (Chester) – 21.51%
9.   Lower Merion (Montgomery) – 21.48%
10.   Lower Gwynedd (Montgomery) – 21.06%
11.   Rose Valley (Delaware) – 20.24%
12.   Upper Uwchlan (Chester) – 19.90%
13.   Newtown borough (Bucks) – 19.16%
14.   Charlestown (Chester) – 18.55%
15.   Whitpain (Montgomery) – 18.51%
16.   Pennsbury (Chester) – 17.79%
17.   Kennett (Chester) – 17.30%
18.   East Bradford (Chester) – 16.87%
19.   Uwchlan (Chester) – 16.45%
20.   Edgmont (Delaware) – 16.40%

Trump's 25 Best Municipalities
1.   West Nottingham (Chester) 66.58%
2.   West Fallowfield (Chester) 66.28%
3.   Upper Oxford (Chester) 62.82%
4.   Honeybrook township (Chester) 62.81%
5.   Elverson (Chester) 62.63%
6.   West Nantmeal (Chester) 62.44%
7.   Douglass (Montgomery) 62.07%
8.   Trumbauersville (Bucks) 61.82%
9.   Tinicum (Bucks) 61.65%
10.   Nockamixon (Bucks) 61.31%
11.   Haycock (Bucks) 60.92%
12.   Salford (Montgomery) 60.82%
13.   West Sadsbury (Chester) 60.76%
14.   Marlborough (Montgomery) 60.24%
15.   Milford (Bucks) 60.18%
16.   West Rockhill (Bucks) 59.40%
17.   East Nottingham (Chester) 58.99%
18.   Upper Hanover (Montgomery) 58.98%
19.   Highland (Chester) 58.98%
20.   Durham (Bucks) 58.89%
21.   Franconia (Montgomery) 58.83%
22.   West Caln (Chester) 58.15%
23.   Springfield (Bucks) 57.92%
24.   Bedminster (Bucks) 57.72%
25.   East Rockhill (Bucks) 57.69%

Clinton's 25 Best Municipalities
1.   Yeadon (Delaware) 94.77%
2.   Chester city (Delaware) 92.53%
3.   Darby borough (Delaware) 92.14%
4.   Colwyn (Delaware) 89.31%
5.   Chester township (Delaware) 89.04%
6.   Swarthmore (Delaware) 86.14%
7.   Milbourne (Delaware) 85.84%
8.   Sharon Hill (Delaware) 83.95%
9.   Coatesville (Chester) 82.69%
10.   Cheltenham (Montgomery) 82.65%
11.   East Lansdowne (Delaware) 81.81%
12.   Narberth (Montgomery) 79.71%
13.   Norristown (Montgomery) 79.69%
14.   South Coatesville (Chester) 76.59%
15.   Lower Merion (Montgomery) 75.16%
16.   Jenkintown (Montgomery) 74.62%
17.   West Chester (Chester) 71.04%
18.   Media (Delaware) 69.76%
19.   Springfield (Montgomery) 67.97%
20.   Collingdale (Delaware) 67.64%
21.   Ambler (Montgomery) 67.04%
22.   Kennett Square (Chester) 66.18%
23.   Modena (Chester) 66.00%
24.   Upper Darby (Delaware) 66.00%
25.   New Hope (Bucks) 65.45%

[nclib]

Great maps, Nordstrand. Could you possibly put boundary lines between the counties?

[Nordstrand]

I've updated the maps to show the county borders.

It's amazing how much the swing map overlaps education levels and income statistics in the area... The Main Line stands out pretty remarkably.

[jaichind]

It would be interesting to see PA map for Trump and also Toomey.  They both won with similar margins but with a totally different coalition.  Toomey won more like a traditional GOP candidate doing relatively well in the Philly suburbs.  Trump won by losing the Philly suburbs but sweeping pretty much everything else by large margins.

[SingingAnalyst]

How about voter turnout? Did the Philly transit strike have a discernible effect?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

How about voter turnout? Did the Philly transit strike have a discernible effect?

More votes were cast in Philadelphia county this year than in 2012, so I would say no.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is the random South Philly area that Trump won heavily Italian?  Also, can you give us the results for Haverford, Radnor, and Tredyffirin Townships for this and the Senate race?

[Nordstrand]

Is the random South Philly area that Trump won heavily Italian?  Also, can you give us the results for Haverford, Radnor, and Tredyffirin Townships for this and the Senate race?

I included Lower Merion and Easttown since those five round out the bulk of the Main Line:

Lower Merion - 75.16% Clinton-21.49% Trump (65.72% Obama-33.53% Romney)
Haverford - 61.72% Clinton-34.63% Trump (57.78% Obama-40.93% Romney)
Radnor - 63.73% Clinton-32.54% Trump (52.76% Obama-45.90% Romney)
Tredyffrin - 61.17% Clinton-35.19% Trump (51.11% Obama-47.88% Romney)
Easttown - 56.36% Clinton-40.04% Trump (55.42% Romney-43.83% Obama)

Lower Merion - 68.63% McGinty-30.72% Toomey
Haverford - 55.06% McGinty-43.60% Toomey
Radnor - 54.77% McGinty-44.11% Toomey
Tredyffrin - 52.36% McGinty-45.53% Toomey
Easttown - 51.84% Toomey-46.12% McGinty

The Trump ward in South Philly (Ward 26) is made up of Girard Estates and Packer Park. McCain won this ward as well in 2008, the only one in Philly. It was Romney's best Philly ward too, though Obama got 52.5% there in 2012. It's definitely a heavily Italian area but I'm not too familiar people from the area. There's also a good amount of newer housing developments (townhouses) in Packer Park, which is surprising for South Philly.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is the random South Philly area that Trump won heavily Italian?  Also, can you give us the results for Haverford, Radnor, and Tredyffirin Townships for this and the Senate race?

I included Lower Merion and Easttown since those five round out the bulk of the Main Line:

Lower Merion - 75.16% Clinton-21.49% Trump (65.72% Obama-33.53% Romney)
Haverford - 61.72% Clinton-34.63% Trump (57.78% Obama-40.93% Romney)
Radnor - 63.73% Clinton-32.54% Trump (52.76% Obama-45.90% Romney)
Tredyffrin - 61.17% Clinton-35.19% Trump (51.11% Obama-47.88% Romney)
Easttown - 56.36% Clinton-40.04% Trump (55.42% Romney-43.83% Obama)

Lower Merion - 68.63% McGinty-30.72% Toomey
Haverford - 55.06% McGinty-43.60% Toomey
Radnor - 54.77% McGinty-44.11% Toomey
Tredyffrin - 52.36% McGinty-45.53% Toomey
Easttown - 51.84% Toomey-46.12% McGinty

The Trump ward in South Philly (Ward 26) is made up of Girard Estates and Packer Park. McCain won this ward as well in 2008, the only one in Philly. It was Romney's best Philly ward too, though Obama got 52.5% there in 2012. It's definitely a heavily Italian area but I'm not too familiar people from the area. There's also a good amount of newer housing developments (townhouses) in Packer Park, which is surprising for South Philly.

Lower Merion and Easttown certainly seem like Main Line outliers, while the other three are pretty similar, then.  Is it that Lower Merion is more urban and more Jewish, while Easttown is more rural and has more socially conservative Christians, then?

[mistertheplague]

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Interestingly, those results stack pro-Clinton in order of proximity to Philadelphia. Lower Merion, where I live, is second closest to the city besides Narberth. By Main Line standards, LM is relatively racially and ethnically diverse, with a sizable Jewish population, and is spacially denser than Easttown, which is farthest away on that list from the city, is whiter and physically more spread out.

So I wouldn't say that Easttown is rural, per se -- more like rural-suburban. And I'd actually characterize a majority of people in Easttown/Tredyffrin as being socially moderate-liberal, and fiscally moderate-conservative, as opposed to folks in Lower Merion/Narberth, the majority of whom are pretty solidly liberal, socially and fiscally. My guess is that the Trump campaign's bigotry drove down his numbers in Chester County, which voted for Romney in 2012.