2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

TIlt D CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, WI
Tossup AK,AZ, CT, OH, OK, OR, RI, SD, TN
Tilt R ID, Iowa, ME, MD, NV, NH, SC, TX, VT, WY

It so bugs my ocd that you type out Iowa but abbreviate all the other states.

[Thomas D]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moderate GOPer can win in the NE, that won't disturb Dems winning House races. Like in CT and RI, NH and MD

[Progressive Pessimist]

TIlt D CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, WI
Tossup AK,AZ, CT, OH, OK, OR, RI, SD, TN
Tilt R ID, Iowa, ME, MD, NV, NH, SC, TX, VT, WY

It so bugs my ocd that you type out Iowa but abbreviate all the other states.

I was thinking that exact same thing! Haha.

[Xing]

TIlt D CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, WI
Tossup AK,AZ, CT, OH, OK, OR, RI, SD, TN
Tilt R ID, Iowa, ME, MD, NV, NH, SC, TX, VT, WY

It so bugs my ocd that you type out Iowa but abbreviate all the other states.

I was thinking that exact same thing! Haha.

That's what bugs you guys that most about his posts? lol

[Atlas Force]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Likely D
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Likely D
Iowa - Tossup
Kansas - Tossup
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Lean R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Safe D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Tossup
New Mexico - Safe D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup
Oklahoma - Lean R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Likely R
Tennessee - Lean R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Just made my new prediction

[Blackacre]

Alright, we just had a crop of primaries, so it's time for some updates! Because governor whatshisface conceded to Kobach, Kansas moves from Leans Republican to aPure Tossup. On the other side of things, Vermont moves to Safe R now that Phil Scott easily won renomination, showing that he was never in any electoral trouble.

One more thing. Connecticut. Connecticut will tentatively move to Leans D. The GOP nominee seems bad and Ned Lamont is a legend but the state is going against the national environment, so this was a tricky call to make. However, though it's a weak lean, candidate strength still matters, so while Rhode Island remains tossup, Connecticut seems to settle slightly more firmly in Democrats' hands.

And.... that's it. Minnesota and Wisconsin are both where I want them to be even in light of primary results, so we're good!

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (4)
OR, WI, MI, CT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (5)
AK, RI, IA, OH, KS

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY, VT

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 23 Governorships
Pure tossup: 5 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Leans-only Expected Result: D+8.2, R-7.7
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8.9, R-8.1
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

Democrats' position improved by quite a bit. This is especially so in the Tilts-only model, which considers anything out of the Tilts window to be safe. This algorithm thinks Democrats just got 90% of a governor's mansion just from the results of the primaries!

[Orser67]

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR
Likely D- CT, PA, IL, NM
Lean D- CO, MN, MI, NV, ME, FL
Toss-Up- WI, OH, MD, NH
Lean R- AZ, IA, KS, VT, MA
Likely R- SC, SD, GA, OK, TN
Very Likely R- TX, AL
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

Lean I - AK

Safe D- HI, CA, NY
Very Likely D- RI, OR, IL, PA, NM
Likely D- CT, MN, MI, CO
Lean D- NV, FL, WI, OH, ME
Toss-Up- AZ, IA, KS
Lean R- OK, MD, NH, GA, AK
Likely R- SC, TN, MA, VT
Very Likely R- SD, TX, AL
Safe R- ID, WY, NE, AR

As you can probably tell, I'm bullish on Democrat's chances, especially in blue states without incumbents.

[Edgeofnight]

My Previous Ratings are here


Races moving towards the Democrats:
MN: Leans D to Very Likely D
KS: Leans R to Tossup

Races moving towards the Republicans:
At this time, none.

Ratings: Safe (90%), Very Likely (70%), Likely (50%), Lean (30%), Tossup (Green), Independents are in Yellow in case it becomes relevant in the future. I don't use "tilt" as a rating because I don't see it being significantly different from "lean."

A brief explanaiton of how I view each rating:

"Safe" means that the only way this race becomes competitive is if there is an unforeseen and major scandal. A "MeToo" esq level event. As a general rule for myself, I don't give Safe ratings to the non-incumbent party, although there are always exceptions.

"Very Likely" means that there is a chance this race could become more competitive, but for now one party has it under control.

"Likely" means one party is clearly favored, and by a good amount. While an upset is possible, its unlikely.

"Lean" means that one party has a slight edge, but it could still go to the other without too much bad luck.

Now for my #analysis


CT: Lamont was pretty clearly going to win the primary, the D side went as expected. The R side had a bit of an upset, Bob Stefanowski defeated several candidates and upset the state establishment to win the nomination. Mark Boughton was arguable the better candidate, but I don't see him being so much better as to move this race out of Lean D just because he lost the Republican nomination. While the Democrats are more favored than they where before the primary, I'm keeping it at Lean D for now. If there was a rating between "Lean" and "Likely", I would place it there.

VT:Much like Lamont, I never really saw Phil Scott losing the primary. There was a chance, and even a brief period last night where I thought it might actually happen, but in the end, I was right. I'm keeping this race at "Very Likely R" with the acknowledgement that that rating will likely shift towards the Democrats as the race draws on.

WI:Another primary that went exactly as I expected it to go, I am keeping the Evers vs Walker match up at Lean D, for the reasons I have always had it at lean D for. Now that Evers is confirmed to be the Democratic Candidate, I will admit that the Democrats odds have improved a bit, but much like CT, not enough for me to really change my overall rating. Like CT again, If there was a rating between "Lean" and "Likely" I would put it there.

MN:There was a bit of uncertainty going into this primary, but as Swanson's campaign imploded, Walz remained strong and pulled a convincing win in the Primary. Although I thought Walz was gonna win, I wasn't as confident in that prediction as I was the CT and WI primaries. The more interesting primary was the Republican Gubernatorial primary, where Jeff Johnson, the party endorsed Conservative candidate, upset big money Moderate Hero Tim Pawlenty. Hindsight makes this seem way more obvious that things where heading this way, but when the limited polling put Pawlenty with a 9 point lead, its understandable that I (and many others) thought Pawlenty would win. Regardless, he has lost, and may he stay out of politics forever. Anyway, with a Walz vs Johnson matchup in November, I would say smart money is on Walz. While Republicans did good in Minnesota in 2016, the deck is stacked against Johnson. The competitive House races, Klobuchar's coattails, the national environment,  the other Senate election, Walz's strength as a candidate, and many more factors all work against Johnson and for Walz. Plus, the aforementioned Senate and House races will likely bring national Democrats and National money, which could further boost Walz.

KS:What a bunch of people overlooked in the excitement of last nights primaries was that Jeff Coyler has conceded to Kris Kobach in the R-Gov primary in Kansas. You could rate this race anywhere between Likely R and Lean D and while I wouldn't agree, I also wouldn't see it as too crazy. Kobach shouldn't be underestimated, and neither should Kelly, but a lot of this race, and how it is rated, is going to come down to how Strong Orman is. My personal opinion, based on his political stances and the other two candidates in the race, is that Orman will pull more from Republicans, specifically some Coyler voters, than he will from Democrats. You could argue this either way, and with a lack of polling its going to come down mostly to opinion if you agree with me or not. I could also realistically see Orman getting anywhere between 5% and 25% depending on how the campaign progresses and what kinda night November 6th ends up being. If you asked me with a gun to my head who I thought would win this race, I would give it to Laura Kelly. But I'm not confident enough in that without more polling to move this race out of Tossup.

[Xing]

IceSpear's hard-hitting, professionally written analysis of the 2018 Senate map has inspired me to rethink my ratings. Here we go:

Alabama: Toss-Up. These are strange times indeed, and since Jones won in 2017, WHO KNOWS what will happen here, especially with Ivey being a lesbian and all.

Alaska: Likely D. While Walker is finished (in both states), Democrats actually pick this up thanks to Bad Boy Begich coming back in the 11th hour. His coattails drag down Don Young too imo.

Arizona: Safe R. Even though Sinema will win in a landslide, Ducey is completely invulnerable since that won't affect his race. Also, weak candidate Garcia lol.

Arkansas: Likely R. Things seem bad for Democrats, but let's not forget that there are plenty of WWC Populists who could save Henderson here.

California: Toss-Up. Strong candidate Cox came dangerously close to Massively Overrated Newsom in the primary. Democrats can't get complacent here, especially with strong incumbents Denham and Knight making Democrats sweat like dogs in the primary.

Colorado: Toss-Up. Only a hack would rate an open race in an uber-competitive swing state anything other than Toss-Up. Ha!

Connecticut: Likely R. Malloy put Democrats in big trouble here, and tough guy Stefanowski blew everyone away with his big-league primary win. Plus Lamont is weak and massively overrated imo.

Florida: Safe R. Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor in, like, forever man. You seriously think it will happen this year? lol

Georgia: Safe D. Georgia swung to the Dems big time, and Abrams will beat Trump-worshipper Kemp big time in the rocksolid D Atlanta suburbs like Cobb.

Hawaii: Lean R. Ige's super unpopular, and almost lost his primary. I smell blood in the water.

Idaho: Lean D. Brad Little just has a little lead in the polls, and the way things are going, it's probably going to get littler until it's gone.

Illinois: Toss-Up. Rauner might be an unpopular incumbent in a blue state in a good year for Democrats, but remember that incumbents aren't so easy to beat. Plus, he's the good kind of Republican, and moderates like him are exactly what real Republicans in America want. A certain poster from Illinois told me so.

Iowa: Safe R. Iowa is a Titanium R state because 2014 and 2016.

Kansas: Safe D. Now that KKKrazy KKKris has won the primary, he has no chance of winning in the general election, and Orman will only win Republican voters. After all, Kansas hates super-conservative Republicans.

Maine: Likely D. Maine's a blue state, and therefore will only ever elect Democrats to statewide offices. I mean, who would possibly vote for King AND Moody? Why would anyone split their ballot here?

Maryland: Likely D. How could Hogan possibly win in such a blue state? Plus Jealous is massively underrated, tbh

Massachusetts: Lean R. Yeah, Baker's pretty popular, but this is Massachusetts for god's sake. A Republican can't just win here THAT easily.

Michigan: Safe D. Trump winning here was totally a fluke. Welcome back to the blue wall, Michigan. We missed you. Kind of.

Minnesota: Toss-Up. Uber-Popular Pawlenty would've made this Likely R at least, but now that it's just Regular D vs Regular R, see Colorado.

Nebraska: Lean R. Haven't followed this race much, but Pete Ricketts seems kinda vulnerable, so he better watch out.

Nevada: Titanium R. We all know Nevada's a natural Republican state in which polling NEVER has a Republican bias, so the fact that offensively bad candidate Sisolak is down by even 1 in even a single poll just proves how much of a sub-zero chance he has of beating Super Strong Recruit Laxalt. Also, same as Florida, Nevada's had Republican governors for a while, so why would that change?

New Hampshire: Toss-Up. You mean to tell me you think a race in ultra-competitive New Hampshire, the raging queen of all swing states, ISN'T a Toss-Up? What's wrong with you!?

New Mexico: Toss-Up. New Mexico may lean Democratic, but Pierce is a great recruit while Lujan-Grisham is pretty uninspiring, tbh.

New York: Safe R. As decreed by Atlas, the most unpopular politician in America, Andrew "worse than Hitler" Cuomo, must lose.

Ohio: Likely D. Flawless Beautiful Populist Sherrod's coattails will help Cordray immensly here.

Oklahoma: Safe D. Mary Fallin's really unpopular, and even though she's not running, more Democrats showed up to the primary, so yeah.

Oregon: Likely R. Ultra-white swing state Oregon is prime for the picking for Republicans. Unpopular shrill leftist Brown (Kate, not Sherrod ) is a bad fit for a moderate state like Oregon. I think Trump has a real shot here in 2020 imo.

Pennsylvania: Lean R. In this Trump-loving state, strong recruit Wagner is going to give Wolf a run for his money. Remember how wrong the polls were in 2016?

Rhode Island: Safe R. Rhode Island's trending hard right, and Raimondo's popularity ratings show that she's finished. Governor Fung sounds like a lot of fun to me.

South Carolina: Lean R. This state's going the way of Georgia, North Carolina Virginia, but plus ~5 years, so McMaster can't rest easy.

South Dakota: Toss-Up. The poll showing Noem up by only 4 in this WWC Populist state confirms my suspicions about this race being a sleeper race. Plus, no one knows retail politics like Sutton. Okay, maybe Heitkamp and Tester do, but it's a rare talent.

Tennessee: Toss-Up. Bredesen's coattails have massive implications for the gubernatorial race here. Like Alabama, not every state is going according to the trends we think. Tennessee is changing. Polls here are tightening big time.

Texas: Lean D. In Trump-hating, D-trending minority haven Texas, Republicans are in big trouble. Abbott may not be finished like Cruz (thanks to mediocre candidate Lupe Something Or Other), but he's got to watch out.

Vermont: Likely D. Democrats got many more votes than Republicans in the primary, and what kind of Vermont Democrat would vote for Phil Scott???

Wisconsin: Safe D. I had this as Titanium R, since Walker won three times in four years (in case you forgot), and Trump and Johnson won in 2016 (the polls were WRONG!!), proving Wississippi is a ruby red state now, and I thought Rebellious Lion Kevin Nicholson would win the Senate primary making the Senate race Likely R, guaranteeing four more years of Scotty. However, now that Democrats received more votes than Republicans in the primary, Flawless Beautiful Tony won the gubernatorial primary and Loony Leah won the Senate primary, I know I was totally wrong. 2016 was a fluke, Wisconsin's back to being a solid D blue wall state, and Walker (just like the other one) is finished in Wissachusetts. Maybe if he buys some rogaine, he can shift this race to Likely D, but it'll be tough.

Wyoming: Lean D. Everyone tells me Wyoming is a solid Republican state, but I don't know, man. Gary Trauner is a hell of a candidate, and his coattails will probably help Mary Throne enormously. How awesome would "Governor Throne" be, am I right?

[IceSpear]

LOL.

I think we'd be better pundits than Charlie Cook!

Anyway, I agree with you on some things, but disagree on others (moderate hero.) I'll put my ratings up soon.

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, New York, Pennsylvania
Likely D: Colorado, Minnesota
Lean D: Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Rhode Island
Tossup: Alaska, Florida, Maine, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean R: Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, Kansas
Likely R: Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont
Safe R: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming

Ones I'm not sure about
Pennsylvania: I don't really see how Wolf loses if 2018 turns out to be a wave, but if things get better for the GOP I'll be ready to move it down
Illinois: I don't like rating incumbents below Lean for the other party and given the circumstances Pritzker's polling numbers are pretty pathetic. This'll probably move by November.
Rhode Island: Lean D seems fair for now, although it could certainly move.
Nevada: I see the case for Lean D, but I'll err on the side of caution for now
Georgia: Has the hallmarks of a tossup race but I think the runoff will be Abrams' undoing (although she could certainly win)
South Carolina/South Dakota: I think both are sleepers given the good D candidates but I doubt either of them flip tbh. Any decent polling from either state can up them to safe. Once again erring on side of caution.

[IceSpear]

AL - Safe R. Ivey will win every single Democratic vote in the state, due to her courage in acknowledging Moore was a pedophile but still voting for him anyway.
AK - Safe D. Walker and Dunleavy will split the right wing vote, allowing Begich to win easily. also imo dunleavy is an extremely weak candidate for not having name recognition as high as an incumbent governor and a former senator imo
AZ - Likely D. Queen of AZ's coattails will drag down Ducey. I'm only keeping it at likely D rather than safe in case there's an upset and Sinema wins by a mere 50 points rather than 90 points or so.
AR - Toss Up. Hutchinson is a strong candidate, but RINO Tom told me this is still a Democratic state at heart, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
CA - Safe R. Newsom somehow only won the jungle primary by single digits despite Cox's low name recognition. Orange County, the Republican bastion, is swinging hard back to the GOP. And Newsom will surely get #metoo'd any day now.
CO - Safe D. Colorado is the new California.
CT - Safe R. DAN.MALLOY.
FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
GA - Likely D. 26 year old upscale yuppies in Forsyth County are ready to embrace black women. But out of an abundance of caution I'm keeping it as likely rather than safe because of that random guy in GA-14 who got into a drunk driving scandal, which will surely hurt Abrams.
HI - Lean R. Ige had an underwhelming primary win, and 37 year old mixed race white collar Mauians will remember his missile gaffe in November. Hirono currently being in the fight of her life due to Reuters polls isn't doing Ige any favors either.
ID - Safe D. Paulette Jordan is very attractive, and this will work to her advantage in attracting 42 year old sex deprived white working class married Coeur d'Alene males . Also, my sources in the Little campaign say that he is a pedophile.
IL - Toss Up. Two way race between Pritzker and McCann, who is making major inroads among the black and millennial vote, as he so eloquently pointed out in his polling memo. Rauner will get 0% because I dislike him. Also, Illinois is swinging hard right because it is in the Midwest, so there's no more room for moderate heroes left.
IA - Safe R. Iowa will never vote for any Democrat ever again after how far it swung to Trump.
KS - Likely D. Kobach and Orman will split the far right Tea Party Trumpist alt-right white supremacist Nazi vote, but will it be enough for Kelly to sneak by? Johnson County RINOs will decide.
ME - Likely R. Dems nominated a woman, and everyone knows women can't be #populists.
MD - Super Safe R. Hogan will win every single county in the state. He'd even win DC if it was a part of Maryland. Everyone knows if you lead by double digits in the summer before the election it means you're inevitable. Just ask Rep. Anthony Brown, who will be defeated yet again by Hogan's coattails. Also, Chelsea Manning reverse coattails will hurt Jealous.
MA - Super Safe R, Charlie Baker (<3333333333333) will win 105% of the vote, and cause every elected Democrat in the state to lose in the process.
MI - Safe R. Schuette will also win 90% of the black vote due to John James goodwill. Also, Whitmer is a woman and therefore will lose Michigan because Hillary lost Michigan. imo would've been at least a toss up if dems had a stronger candidate like el sayed or thanedar imo.
MN - Safe D. Minnesota was ready to install Tim Pawlenty in a landslide, but fringe far right GOP primary voters had other plans. Now they will vote Democrat in a massive landslide to punish the GOP for depriving them of eight more years of demigod Tim Pawlenty.
NE - Lean R. Ricketts may have been vulnerable due to losing to Ben Nelson in 2006, but toxic Roy Moore tier candidates like Jane Raybould and Kara Eastman will help him. On top of that, I hear the GOP just ran a web only Pelosi ad against Krist. This might move to likely R after that.
NV - Super Safe R. The Laxalt family name is beloved in Nevada. And that's without even getting into Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's coattails. And of course Nevada is a titanium R state that only voted D in 2016 because of illegals anyway.
NH - Likely R. I had this at lean D due to all the angry women and such, but then Trump tweeted that Maxine Waters is the leader of the Democratic Party, which will surely devastate Molly Kelly's campaign.
NM - Safe R. Michelle Lujan Grisham, yet another Democratic recruiting failure. She couldn't even lead by 20 points in strong candidate Steve Pearce's internals. What a a joke. On top of that, Gary Johnson has just sealed her fate.
NY - Safe R. Cuomo is corrupt, and New York HATES corruption.
OH - Toss Up. Can Brown's #populism coattails drag Cordray over the finish line? 53 year old blue collar manufacturing white male Cleveland Browns fans in Mahoning County are up for grabs in this one. It's going to be a real barn burner.
OK - Super Safe D. Some poll said Mary Fallin was unpopular, and it's not like unpopular politicians are EVER re-elected in very partisan states. Just ask Mary Fallin, Sam Brownback, Dan Malloy, and Mitch McConnell. also imo kevin stitt weak candidate imo. The only question in this race is if the GOP can win the Panhandle.
OR - Lean R. RINOs rejoice, Kate Brown is deeply vulnerable to her RINO opponent. Gravis and that poll that said Trump won win Oregon told me so. But don't count your chickens before they hatch. It's possible enough Portland Antifa members throw eggs at all the Buehler supporters trying to vote to give her a chance at pulling it out in November.
PA - Safe R. Trump won PA, and Wolf only won because of Penn State to begin with.
RI - Likely R. The state swung to Trump in 2016, and Malloy's reverse megacoattails will drag down Raimondo even though he's not on the ballot. Dan Malloy is so bad that he has spawned phantom coattails.
SC - Lean D. Haley only narrowly won in 2010, so it stands to reason that Democrats will win this time. Also, Mark Sanford's loss will depress turnout among 32 year old church going Spatanburg County married men that are currently having affairs.
SD - Lean D. Retail politics and tariffs. Noem is a weak candidate, and also the state is very elastic.
TN - Toss Up. Bredesen will help Dean, but his fate is in the hands of Williamson County RINOs. imo diane black would've made it safe d imo.
TX - Safe R. Valdez is a weak candidate, which is why Abbott will win, not because he has a good approval rating in a Republican state. imo andrew white would've made it at least a toss up imo. Valdez is so bad that she can't even benefit from Beautiful Beto's coattails. Sad!
VT - Super Safe R. Vermont is a Republican state at heart as RINO Tom says, so of course they will re-elect their RINO governor.
WI - Super Safe D. No Republican will be winning any election in the state of Wisconsin within the next 100 years after the massive thrashing last night. Walker will be lucky to win Waukesha County, and if he does it would probably be solely due to fraud.
WY - Likely D. Dave Freudenthal won in 2006.

[MT Treasurer]

Excellent analysis, guys, keep it up! This is the kind of intellectual, sensible, thorough, hard-hitting, thought-provoking analysis that makes this forum so great. You’re not on the same level as Charlie Cook yet, but getting close.

[Zaybay]

Excellent analysis, guys, keep it up! This is the kind of intellectual, sensible, thorough, hard-hitting, thought-provoking analysis that makes this forum so great. You’re not on the same level as Charlie Cook yet, but getting close.

[LimoLiberal]

"42 year old sex deprived white working class married Coeur d'Alene males"

dead

[Sumner 1868]

AL - Safe R. Ivey will win every single Democratic vote in the state, due to her courage in acknowledging Moore was a pedophile but still voting for him anyway.
AK - Safe D. Walker and Dunleavy will split the right wing vote, allowing Begich to win easily. also imo dunleavy is an extremely weak candidate for not having name recognition as high as an incumbent governor and a former senator imo
AZ - Likely D. Queen of AZ's coattails will drag down Ducey. I'm only keeping it at likely D rather than safe in case there's an upset and Sinema wins by a mere 50 points rather than 90 points or so.
AR - Toss Up. Hutchinson is a strong candidate, but RINO Tom told me this is still a Democratic state at heart, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
CA - Safe R. Newsom somehow only won the jungle primary by single digits despite Cox's low name recognition. Orange County, the Republican bastion, is swinging hard back to the GOP. And Newsom will surely get #metoo'd any day now.
CO - Safe D. Colorado is the new California.
CT - Safe R. DAN.MALLOY.
FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
GA - Likely D. 26 year old upscale yuppies in Forsyth County are ready to embrace black women. But out of an abundance of caution I'm keeping it as likely rather than safe because of that random guy in GA-14 who got into a drunk driving scandal, which will surely hurt Abrams.
HI - Lean R. Ige had an underwhelming primary win, and 37 year old mixed race white collar Mauians will remember his missile gaffe in November. Hirono currently being in the fight of her life due to Reuters polls isn't doing Ige any favors either.
ID - Safe D. Paulette Jordan is very attractive, and this will work to her advantage in attracting 42 year old sex deprived white working class married Coeur d'Alene males . Also, my sources in the Little campaign say that he is a pedophile.
IL - Toss Up. Two way race between Pritzker and McCann, who is making major inroads among the black and millennial vote, as he so eloquently pointed out in his polling memo. Rauner will get 0% because I dislike him. Also, Illinois is swinging hard right because it is in the Midwest, so there's no more room for moderate heroes left.
IA - Safe R. Iowa will never vote for any Democrat ever again after how far it swung to Trump.
KS - Likely D. Kobach and Orman will split the far right Tea Party Trumpist alt-right white supremacist Nazi vote, but will it be enough for Kelly to sneak by? Johnson County RINOs will decide.
ME - Likely R. Dems nominated a woman, and everyone knows women can't be #populists.
MD - Super Safe R. Hogan will win every single county in the state. He'd even win DC if it was a part of Maryland. Everyone knows if you lead by double digits in the summer before the election it means you're inevitable. Just ask Rep. Anthony Brown, who will be defeated yet again by Hogan's coattails. Also, Chelsea Manning reverse coattails will hurt Jealous.
MA - Super Safe R, Charlie Baker (<3333333333333) will win 105% of the vote, and cause every elected Democrat in the state to lose in the process.
MI - Safe R. Schuette will also win 90% of the black vote due to John James goodwill. Also, Whitmer is a woman and therefore will lose Michigan because Hillary lost Michigan. imo would've been at least a toss up if dems had a stronger candidate like el sayed or thanedar imo.
MN - Safe D. Minnesota was ready to install Tim Pawlenty in a landslide, but fringe far right GOP primary voters had other plans. Now they will vote Democrat in a massive landslide to punish the GOP for depriving them of eight more years of demigod Tim Pawlenty.
NE - Lean R. Ricketts may have been vulnerable due to losing to Ben Nelson in 2006, but toxic Roy Moore tier candidates like Jane Raybould and Kara Eastman will help him. On top of that, I hear the GOP just ran a web only Pelosi ad against Krist. This might move to likely R after that.
NV - Super Safe R. The Laxalt family name is beloved in Nevada. And that's without even getting into Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller's coattails. And of course Nevada is a titanium R state that only voted D in 2016 because of illegals anyway.
NH - Likely R. I had this at lean D due to all the angry women and such, but then Trump tweeted that Maxine Waters is the leader of the Democratic Party, which will surely devastate Molly Kelly's campaign.
NM - Safe R. Michelle Lujan Grisham, yet another Democratic recruiting failure. She couldn't even lead by 20 points in strong candidate Steve Pearce's internals. What a a joke. On top of that, Gary Johnson has just sealed her fate.
NY - Safe R. Cuomo is corrupt, and New York HATES corruption.
OH - Toss Up. Can Brown's #populism coattails drag Cordray over the finish line? 53 year old blue collar manufacturing white male Cleveland Browns fans in Mahoning County are up for grabs in this one. It's going to be a real barn burner.
OK - Super Safe D. Some poll said Mary Fallin was unpopular, and it's not like unpopular politicians are EVER re-elected in very partisan states. Just ask Mary Fallin, Sam Brownback, Dan Malloy, and Mitch McConnell. also imo kevin stitt weak candidate imo. The only question in this race is if the GOP can win the Panhandle.
OR - Lean R. RINOs rejoice, Kate Brown is deeply vulnerable to her RINO opponent. Gravis and that poll that said Trump won win Oregon told me so. But don't count your chickens before they hatch. It's possible enough Portland Antifa members throw eggs at all the Buehler supporters trying to vote to give her a chance at pulling it out in November.
PA - Safe R. Trump won PA, and Wolf only won because of Penn State to begin with.
RI - Likely R. The state swung to Trump in 2016, and Malloy's reverse megacoattails will drag down Raimondo even though he's not on the ballot. Dan Malloy is so bad that he has spawned phantom coattails.
SC - Lean D. Haley only narrowly won in 2010, so it stands to reason that Democrats will win this time. Also, Mark Sanford's loss will depress turnout among 32 year old church going Spatanburg County married men that are currently having affairs.
SD - Lean D. Retail politics and tariffs. Noem is a weak candidate, and also the state is very elastic.
TN - Toss Up. Bredesen will help Dean, but his fate is in the hands of Williamson County RINOs. imo diane black would've made it safe d imo.
TX - Safe R. Valdez is a weak candidate, which is why Abbott will win, not because he has a good approval rating in a Republican state. imo andrew white would've made it at least a toss up imo. Valdez is so bad that she can't even benefit from Beautiful Beto's coattails. Sad!
VT - Super Safe R. Vermont is a Republican state at heart as RINO Tom says, so of course they will re-elect their RINO governor.
WI - Super Safe D. No Republican will be winning any election in the state of Wisconsin within the next 100 years after the massive thrashing last night. Walker will be lucky to win Waukesha County, and if he does it would probably be solely due to fraud.
WY - Likely D. Dave Freudenthal won in 2006.

A cookie just for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODaxZSz3Awg

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Irony is that the only states the GOP are gonna hold are: Iowa, NH, VT, MD, AL, OK, SD, TX, TN, SC, Reynolds, and Ivey are deeply popular and so are the Rino GOP governors in the NE.

On the Democratic side, they have their charismatic candidates as well: Paulette Jordan, Laura Kelly, G.Whitmer, and Stacy Abrams. Mark Begich is much better than Governor Walker, as well.

[libertpaulian]

Safe D: California, Hawaii, Illinois, New York
Likely D: New Mexico, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon
Lean D: Maine, Michigan
Tilt D: Wisconsin, Rhode Island
Tossup: Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Kansas
Tilt R: Alaska, Oklahoma
Lean R: Iowa
Likely R: South Carolina, Tennessee, South Dakota, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont
Safe R: Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't seen much polling in AK, and FL will be close and OH, Cordray can be pushed over the line with Brown on ballot.

[IceSpear]

A cookie just for you:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODaxZSz3Awg

Ah, I still remember when I first saw that video back in 2008. Good times. I can't believe it's been over a decade...time flies.

[junior chįmp]

FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.

This one is true tho and with Trump endlessly taking about SPACE FORCE...no doubt it'll attract alot of cross over Rs who voted for Lawton Chiles back in the day

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Let this happen!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Some scenarios:
snip

Please do something like this for Senate races too.