2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[2016]

If the Democrats lose Ohio & Florida Governor Races this year it will be deemed as big failure even if they win WI, MI Governor.

[Blackacre]

Time for an update and an adjustment.

First the adjustments. Connecticut moves to Tilt D because Malloy isn’t on the ballot and Lamont is strong. Rhode Island, however, stays a pure tossup. Minnesota moves to Likely D, due to a very strong state Democratic Party and the state’s natural leanings. Colorado will follow suit due to its leanings and Hickenlooper’s popularity. In exchange, however, Oregon moves from Likely D to Lean. Also Vermont goes to Likely R. I jumped the gun on Scott because of, well, guns, but I should have waited for more info.

The update, IE changes based on new data, is in a single state. Thanks to Emerson, Tennessee moves from Likely R all the way to Tilt R.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
CT, GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
AK, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
KS, OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (5)
NH, MD, SD, VT, SC

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (7)
AL, NE, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: Coming tonight
Leans-only Expected Result: Coming tonight
Tilts-only Expected Result: Coming tonight
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win MI, WI, IL, OH, FL, PA, GA and FL

[South Dakota Democrat]

Dems will win MI, WI, IL, OH, FL, PA, GA and FL

IA is not likely R, it's lean at best.  SD is not a tossup, I'd say lean R right now.  I'd put OH at tossup.  GA I'd put at tossup.  NV I'd put at tossup.  I don't think we have enough evidence that KS or OK are tossups, I'd put them both at lean R.

[Blackacre]

Another update so soon? Well, dfwlibertylover brought Nebraska to my attention as a competitive state, so it goes from Safe R to Likely.

As a reminder, here is what each of my rankings means to me.

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (4)
CA, NY, HI, PA

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will elect a Democratic governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (5)
MN, CO, ME, NM, IL

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
OR, WI, MI

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
CT, GA, NV

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (4)
AK, RI, IA, OH

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (3)
TN, FL, AZ

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (2)
KS, OK

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will elect a Republican governor, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (6)
NH, MD, SD, VT, SC, NE

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (6)
AL, TX, AR, ID, MA, WY

Probable Independent: The favorite is neither a Democrat nor a Republican. The degree to which the candidate is favored does not matter. (0)
Nothing here.

Democrats: 22 Governorships
Republicans: 24 Governorships
Pure tossup: 4 Governorships
Uncorrelated Expected Result: D+7.9, R-7.4
Leans-only Expected Result: D+7.8, R-7.3
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+8, R-7.5
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+15, R-14
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+1, D+0

[Blackacre]

I did this kind of thing in the 2018 Senate Rankings thread (link here) because it was fun, so here are five distinct scenarios for the the 2018 Midterms at the Gubernatorial level based on my current rankings! They're meant to correlate with the scenarios in the other thread.

edit: updated to reflect my August 15th Rankings, available in my signature.

Scenario 1: LimoLiberal Was Right

Aside from a horrendous performance at the Congressional level, Democrats also had a bad night because of the golden opportunity they blew in the states. So many opportunities to regain what they lost in 2010 and 2014, but as the Blue Wave fizzled out, their opportunities slipped away, one by one. It was a long and cruel night. Despite a Democratic pickup in New Mexico, the GOP actually made a net gain and increased their strangehold on state governments. Alaska went back into their hands, they made gains in Oregon, Cordray went down in flames, freaking Scott Walker survived, and to top it all off, another freaking Johnson won as a midwestern Republican. As Wisconsinites can tell you, Johnsonitis is a disease and Minnesota has it now. Even liberal New England was left without a single Democratic Governor. The only way it could have been worse is if Rauner survived too, but Pritzker's win was surprisingly narrow.

Dreams of protecting voting rights, restoring union power, resisting Trump, and stopping another decade of GOP gerrymandering all died in a single night.


TL;DR: The parties split the Likely Democratic states; everything Lean D or lower goes Republican.

Scenario 2: Democratic Disappointment

Democrats made a net gain of governors, but this was one of many hollow victories in a rough night. I mean, the GOP’s slim House majority of 4 will make governing impossible, and Democrats did well in the Senate given the horrible map, but come on. They had so many opportunities to take seats, and they ended up with only 2 more than they started with. New England had only a single Democratic Governor. Stacy Abrams came up just short. FL Dems FL Dem’d. The GOP routed in Nevada. Even Walker survived; that one really hurt. But they did technically walk away with a gain, thanks to states they never had any business giving up like New Mexico and Michigan and Maine. Oh well. All Democrats could do now is lick their wounds and get ready for the next battle.


TL;DR: The parties split the Leans Democratic states, everything Tilt D or lower goes Republican.

Scenario 3: A Return to Par

When historians look back and ask if 2018 was a good night for Democrats, the answer will be a resounding Yes, and also No. The battle for the House and Senate were both extremely close, and the Gubernatorial front was similarly ambiguous. For while Democrats walked away with an impressive net gain of 8 seats, they did not walk away with more Governor’s Mansions than the Republicans. They did, however, go from a massive deficit to an exact tie with the GOP, a strange consolation that's neither victory or moral defeat. A few key races that would have put them over the top slipped through their fingers. Tribalism worked for the dominant parties in Connecticut and Oklahoma, but not in Rhode Island and Kansas. Elsewhere, Arizona had too many split ticketers to go fully blue, and FL Dems did what they do best. Finally, Bill Walker’s presence on the ballot ultimately screwed over Mark Begich.

But despite the losses, there were still legit gains to be celebrated. 9 GOP-Held governorships changes hands, and 5 of them were in the Midwest. Down with Walker, up with Cordray!! Gains in blue Maine, Nevada, and New Mexico were nice too, but the crowning achievement came down South: Stacey Abrams became the first African American woman governor-elect in the nation’s history.


TL;DR: The parties win everything they’re favored in and split the tossups.

Scenario 4: The Wave Comes Through

Even the most optimistic Democrats in January 2017 wouldn’t have expected Dems to hit 30, and the naysayers and Republicans remain in shock. Pelosi and Schumer are celebrating, sure, but the Blue Wave was felt most acutely in the states. Every vulnerable Democratic seat stayed firm, and GOP losses transcended regional differences. Not even Florida Dems could mess up the wave! The Midwest swung left wholesale, dragging Walker down to heck where he belongs. Tennessee elected Karl Dean along with Bredesen. Begich pulled through in Alaska. But the most significant victory here was the Democratic wins in ruby-red Oklahoma and Kansas, which might have been GOP holds if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot on primary day.

With a mandate in the states, newly empowered Democrats got to work on issues from education and taxes to voting rights and labor rights. And it’s safe to say the 2022-2032 House map won’t be nearly as bad for Democrats.


TL;DR: The parties split the Leans Republican states, everything Tilt R or higher goes Democratic.

Scenario 5: Nut

The Republican Party spent 8 years building up its power in Congress and in the states. It was a lot of work for a very large payoff. However, it evidently wasn’t built to last. Everything the GOP worked so hard to achieve vanished overnight. Their state legislative majorities, their bench of candidates, their ability to gerrymander. Everything they had been counting on, in one night, disappeared.

As for the Democrats. They more than doubled their number of governors.

It happened everywhere. No category of states or governors were completely safe from the Blue Tsunami. The newly Republican Midwest washed the red off its hands completely. The Ruby-Red South? There’s shades of blue now. Every state south of Maryland that touches the Atlantic now has a Democratic governor. The Republican-friendly Southwest got a lot less friendly, with Democratic pickups in New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Not Texas, though Sen.-elect Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) is enough to satisfy Texas Dems for now. In the heavily Republican plains states was the biggest bloodbath of all, with Democratic gains in all four applicable red states directly north of Texas, plus Alaska. The gain in NE is important for redistricting, as it could make NE-02 more Democratic later.

It was a night beyond the wildest hopes and dreams of all but the most hackish Democrats. (And dfwlibertylover) Today, they celebrate. But come January, it will be time to put their 18 new governors and hundreds upon hundreds of new state legislators to work on every liberal priority under the sun.


TL;DR: The parties split the Likely Republican states, everything Leans R or higher goes Democratic.

[Dr. MB]

Preliminary Rankings



Safe D: CA, NM, HI, IL, PA, NY
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Republican.

Likely D: OR, CO, MN
While the Democrat is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Republican pulls off a victory.

Lean D: NV, MI, GA, WI, ME
These races are competitive, but the Democrat has a slight advantage.

Pure Tossup: AK, FL, OH, CT, RI
These races are highly competitive and could go either way.

Lean R: AZ, KS, OK, IA, MD
These races are competitive, but the Republican has a slight advantage.

Likely R: SD, TN, SC, VT, NH
While the Republican is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Democrat pulls off victory.

Safe R: ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Democratic.

Notes:
For Oklahoma, if Cornett wins the primary it's Likely R, if Stitt wins it's Tossup.
For Kansas, if Colyer wins the primary it's Lean R, if Kobach wins it's Tossup.
For Rhode Island, if Raimondo wins the primary it's Tossup, if Brown wins it's Lean D.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My Rankings:

Safe D: CA, NY, PA, HI, NM

Unless a Roy Moore type scandal is revealed about the Dem candidate, there is no chance for the Republican to win

Likely D: IL, MI , MN, CO

While the Democratic Candidate is favored , there is a slight chance the Republican wins

Leans D: OR, ME, RI

While the Race is Competitive, the Democrats have the slight advantage


Tossup: NV, IA, GA, FL

These races are Pure Tossups

Lean R: OH, WI, KS, AK

While the Race is Competitive, the Republican have the slight advantage

Likely R: AZ, SD, OK, VT, NH, MD, TN


While the Republican Candidate is favored , there is a slight chance the Democrat wins


Safe R: TX, ID, WY, NE, AR, AL, SC, MA

Unless a Roy Moore type scandal is revealed about the GOP candidate, there is no chance for the Democrat to win

[Mr. Smith]

@Spenstar: You're really that unsure of Jealous chances huh?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Solid D IL, MI, NM, CO, MN, OR
Slight L D WI, NV, CT, RI, ME
Tossup OH, FL, AZ
Slight Lean R iowa, NH, and MD
Solid R OK, TX, KS, and GA

[Badger]

My Rankings:

Safe D: CA, NY, PA, HI, NM

Unless a Roy Moore type scandal is revealed about the Dem candidate, there is no chance for the Republican to win

Likely D: IL, MI , MN, CO

While the Democratic Candidate is favored , there is a slight chance the Republican wins

Leans D: OR, ME, RI

While the Race is Competitive, the Democrats have the slight advantage


Tossup: NV, IA, GA, FL

These races are Pure Tossups

Lean R: OH, WI, KS, AK

While the Race is Competitive, the Republican have the slight advantage

Likely R: AZ, SD, OK, VT, NH, MD, TN


While the Republican Candidate is favored , there is a slight chance the Democrat wins


Safe R: TX, ID, WY, NE, AR, AL, SC, MA

Unless a Roy Moore type scandal is revealed about the GOP candidate, there is no chance for the Democrat to win

This, except I would shift Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Oregon (natch ) all a step more favorable for the Democrats.

I would also probably put Georgia and even Iowa at lean Republican right now. I think Florida will flip before Georgia, fwiw.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On New Hampshire...these were the 2014 polls:



And the 2010 polls:



Everyone expected Lynch and Hassan to win in massive landslides (they were just as popular as Sununu is now, if not moreso), then the wave caught up with them. Sununu is favored, but he is not safe.

What an incredibly unfunny and misogynistic post. Bad!

MD and NH are funny states, they have GOP governors for a reason, and NH doesn't like Tax hikes, that's why Sununus resonate in NH and MD as well, I think NE governors that Lean GOP are insulated due to the tax hike issue and the cost of living there is very expensive. That's why Baker haven't raised taxes in Boston

[Rookie Yinzer]

Solid R  GA

Huh? Haven't you spent the past couple days all but preparing for Stacey Abrams's inauguration? LMAO.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Preliminary Rankings



Safe D: CA, NM, HI, IL, PA, NY
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Republican.

Likely D: OR, CO, MN
While the Democrat is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Republican pulls off a victory.

Lean D: NV, MI, GA, WI, ME
These races are competitive, but the Democrat has a slight advantage.

Pure Tossup: AK, FL, OH, CT, RI
These races are highly competitive and could go either way.

Lean R: AZ, KS, OK, IA, MD
These races are competitive, but the Republican has a slight advantage.

Likely R: SD, TN, SC, VT, NH
While the Republican is no doubt favored, there is a slight chance the Democrat pulls off victory.

Safe R: ID, WY, NE, TX, AR, AL, MA
I don't see any scenario in which these races go Democratic.

Notes:
For Oklahoma, if Cornett wins the primary it's Likely R, if Stitt wins it's Tossup.
For Kansas, if Colyer wins the primary it's Lean R, if Kobach wins it's Tossup.
For Rhode Island, if Raimondo wins the primary it's Tossup, if Brown wins it's Lean D.

Seems reasonable.  Personally I'd go tossup for AZ but lean R is fair too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definately David Garcia and Stacy Abrams will win😁

[South Dakota Democrat]

Definately David Garcia and Stacy Abrams will win😁

You know neither the spelling nor the meaning of the word definitely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whatever

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy Abrams, Karl Dean and Laura Kelly can mount upsets. Dont count out Cordray, either, who will be running with popular Sherrod Brown😁

[Kodak]

My poll-based prediction 90 days out from election day. For Kansas I am still assuming Colyer wins the primary after provisionals are counted; Kelly would lead Kobach by 1 if he pulls through.

And yes, Maine will have an exact tie.

[😥]

Alabama - Likely R
Alaska - Lean R (with Begich)
Arizona - Tossup/Tilt R Tossup
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Lean D
Connecticut - Tilt D
Florida -Tossup/Tilt D
Georgia - Tossup/Tilt R Tossup
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Lean D Likely D
Iowa - Tossup/Tilt R
Kansas - Lean I Tossup/Tilt D
Maine - Lean D
Maryland - Likely R
Massachusetts - Safe R
Michigan - Lean D
Minnesota - Lean D
Nebraska - Likely R Safe R
Nevada - Tossup/Tilt D Tilt R
New Hampshire - Lean R
New Mexico - Likely D
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Tossup/Tilt D
Oklahoma - Lean R Tilt R
Oregon - Safe D Lean D
Pennsylvania - Safe D
Rhode Island - Lean D
South Carolina - Likely R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Tilt R Tossup
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Lean D
Wyoming - Likely R

[Zaybay]

My rankings, as of August 9th




KS: Lean R -> Tossup

I think everyone knows why I moved this. Kobach will be the R candidate in the state, and that moves the race to tossup. Hes just so unlikable, and doing so poorly in polling, that Kelly, the Dem, now has a chance to turn the state Blue. The only wildcard here is Orman, and what he does. He ran aligned with the Dems in the past, but now, hes taking a centrist stance, even getting an R as his LT. Its possible that he siphons votes from Kelly, but he could also siphon votes from Kobach from R voters who dont want to vote D, but hate him. This will be an interesting race, to say the least.

[pops]

My Rankings

Safe D: CA, CO, HI, IL*, NM*, NY, PA
Likely D: MI*, MN
Lean D: CT, OH*
Tilt D: FL*, NV*, OR, RI, WI*
Tilt R: AZ, ME, KS
Lean R: AK*, GA, NH, OK
Likely R: IA, MD, NE, SD, VT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, MA, SC, TN, TX, WY

[OriginalJeremiah]

My Rankings

Safe D: CA, IL, NY
Likely D: OR, NM, CO, MN, MI, PA, RI,
Lean D: NV, AZ, KS, GA, FL, CT, ME
Tilt D: AK, OK, WI, OH
Tilt R: MD
Lean R: IA, TN
Likely R: TX, SD, NH
Safe R: ID, WY, NE, AR, AL, SC, VT, MA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TIlt D CA, CO, FL, GA, IL, KS, MI, MN, NM, NY, PA, WI
Tossup AK,AZ, CT, OH, OK, OR, RI, SD, TN
Tilt R ID, Iowa, ME, MD, NV, NH, SC, TX, VT, WY