2018 Senate Rankings

[TarHeelDem]

1. Arizona

2. Nevada

3. Indiana
4. Tennessee

5. Florida
6. Missouri

7. North Dakota
8. Montana
9. Texas

Changes:

WV: Lean D -> Likely D
ME: Likely D -> Solid D

Extremely optimistic....

Eh, not really. Make Florida Toss-Up and I'd say it's a very plausible map, actually.

[smoltchanov]

^ North Dakota as Lean D, West Virginia and Arizona as LIKELY D? And only one tossup among endangered Democratic seats? Too optimistic, IMHO....

[Kodak]

^ North Dakota as Lean D, West Virginia and Arizona as LIKELY D? And only one tossup among endangered Democratic seats? Too optimistic, IMHO....

Manchin has led every poll except one Morrisey internal, and in most of them he was ahead by double digits. Sinema has also been ahead of McSally in every single poll. Likely D is an acceptable rating for both races right now. ND as lean D is the only rating I’d really disagree with.

[The Other Castro]

Non-safe State Ratings: D+3

Ohio - Likely D
West Virginia - Likely D
Montana - Likely D
Florida - Likely D
Nevada (R) - Lean D (D Gain)
Arizona (R) - Lean D (D Gain)
North Dakota - Tilt D
Indiana - Tilt D
Missouri - Tilt D
Tennessee - Tossup (D if forced to pick, D Gain)
Texas - Lean R
Mississippi Special - Likely R

Update:

1. Arizona (D Gain)
2. Nevada (D Gain)
3. North Dakota (R Gain)
4. Tennessee (D Gain)
----------------------
5. Missouri
6. Indiana
7. Florida
8. Texas
9. Montana
10. West Virginia
11. Mississippi Special
12. New Jersey

[adrac]

Perhaps I'm trusting my gut too much on ND and FL, but I think everything else reflects the evidence well...

[Ferguson97]

Democrats: Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri, Arizona, Nevada

Republicans: North Dakota, Tennessee, Florida

[Kodak]

My poll-based prediction 90 days from election day.

[Thunder98]

As of 8/9/2018

[mcmikk]

Just a minor update, due in part because 270towin added a Tilt option.



Florida and North Dakota both move from Lean D to Tilt D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SCHUYLKILL SCOTT LOSES.

[DaWN]

Safe D: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (I), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Minnesota-Special, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont (I), Virginia, Washington
Likely D: Ohio, Wisconsin
Lean D: Arizona (+1), Montana, Nevada (+2), West Virginia
Tossup: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota
Lean R: Tennessee, Texas
Likely R: Mississippi-Special
Safe R: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

[Xing]

Moving WI-SEN and PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D. Before anyone screams "BUT 2016!!!" at me, a few things...

1) 2018 is not 2016

2) Baldwin and Casey are not Hillary Clinton

3) Vukmir and Barletta are not Trump

[morgieb]

Moving WI-SEN and PA-SEN from Likely D to Safe D. Before anyone screams "BUT 2016!!!" at me, a few things...

1) 2018 is not 2016

2) Baldwin and Casey are not Hillary Clinton

3) Vukmir and Barletta are not Trump

Barletta was basically saying the things Trump was years before Trump did tbf.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

with tossups:

without tossups:

My color scheme:
90% is safe
70% is highly likely, but not quite safe
50% is likely
30% is lean
20% is tilt

Changing from previous rankings (I'm going off my May ranking), I recently added the "Tilt" and "Very Likely" categories to this.

NJ: Safe D -> Very Likely D

I was on the fence about this. Menendez will probably win, but it will be closer than it should for a D in NJ.

OH: Likely D -> Very Likely D

Brown is looking less and less vulnerable. R's will focus on other races.

MT: Lean D -> Likely D

Rosendale is just not very good. Enough said.

FL: Likely D -> Tossup/Tilt D

Nelson has been doing bad in his re-election campaign, hopefully he'll start going hard on the campaigning soon.

MO: Tossup -> Lean D

McCaskill just seems to be doing better right now.

IN: Lean D -> Tossup/Tilt D

I used to think MO would flip first, but things have changed. IN will be the second to flip after ND imo.

ND: Tossup -> Tossup/Tilt R

A pure tossup as of now with a slight R tilt. I considered it a tilt/lean D state before.

MN-S: Likely D -> Safe D

I don't see this flipping.

NM: Lean D -> Safe D

idk what I was on when I thought NM was only leaning D. Anyway, with Johnson in, this is going to be near impossible to flip.

WI, MI, and PA:
Likely D -> Safe D

These don't appear prone to flipping at all. Maybe Very Likely D would be a better spot for them, but for right now I'm putting them here.

Nearest to being changed:

TX, from Lean R to Tilt R, if we see more close polls coming in.

AZ, from Lean D to Likely D if we some more good polls for Sinema.

[Galaxie]

AL = MS Special
IA = MN Special

Changes:
MS: Safe R -> Likely R
TX: Lean R -> Tilt R
IN: Tossup -> Tilt D

[IceSpear]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

AZ - Safe D, Queen of Arizona Kyrsten Sinema would defeat God himself in an election here.
CA - Lean Feinstein, De Leon will win 47 year old inner city Los Angeles gay Latino businessmen, but will it be enough?
CT - Lean D, Malloy will drag down Murphy.
DE- Lean R, a Gravis poll shows Carper is in deep trouble.
FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
HI - Toss Up. Hirono has cancer, also Republicans just improved on the Reuters generic ballot.
IN - Safe D. One word: Trafalgar. Also, Braun is a much worse candidate than Mourdock.
ME - Toss Up. Maine swung to Trump.
MD - Lean D. imo chelsea manning might run as an independent and hurt cardin imo.
MA - Lean R. Warren is an underperformer and Charlie Baker coattails will ensure the end of her political career.
MI - Likely R. James will win 90% of the black vote because he's black. Stabenow will need to run up the score with racist whites to compensate.
MN - Toss Up. #SmithMoreVulnerableThanTester. Also, MN almost voted Trump.
MS - Lean D. MS is very sexist (see 2016) and will therefore vote for Espy.
MO - Likely D. Only not safe D because Hawley works out at the gym and this might sway some female voters imo.
MT - Super Safe D. Every single citizen of the state will vote for Jon Tester, as agreed upon by the Montana Constitution and by every citizen who resides there, otherwise they face exile. also rosendale weak candidate imo.
NE - Safe R. Fischer will win by 50 points because a line on a Politico article told me she would.
NV - Super Safe R. Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller was unstoppable, but imo weak candidate jacky rosen only sealed the dems fate here imo.
NJ - Safe R. Menendez is corrupt and New Jersey HATES corruption.
NM - Likely R. Because of unbeatable titan Gary Johnson. Only keeping it at likely R rather than safe R because we don't know if Mick Rich will drop out yet.
NY - Lean D. NYC will get vengeance for Al Franken by voting Republican, but she can balance them out with Upstate Racists. imo she should be happy she's not facing strong candidate wendy long or else this would be at least lean r imo.
ND - Likely D. Retail politics and tariffs.
OH - Safe D. #populists
PA - Lean R. Barletta is very Trumpish and don't forget Trump won PA.
RI - Toss Up. Rhode Island swung R in 2016.
TN - Safe D. Unbeatable Titan Phil Bredesen won every county in 2006 and will do so again.
TX - Safe D. Texas swung to Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz was a #NeverTrumper which will hurt him with the base. O'Rourke's great campaign and good looks will cause him to dominate the 39 year old yoga practicing soap opera watching suburban demographic.
UT - Toss Up. Romney is an etch a sketch and also said 47%, plus this state swung hard D in 2016. imo if hatch was the nominee this would be safe d imo.
VT - Lean R. Rs hard good primary turnout, and Scott's coattails will drag down the old socialist Bernie for good.
VA - Toss Up. VIRGINIA IS STILL A SWING STATE! BARBARA COMSTOCK WOULD'VE MADE THIS RACE SAFE R IN A CLINTOOOOONNNN MIDTERRRRRMMMMMM.
WA - Lean D. This state is very white, so Cantwell needs to watch her back.
WV - Safe D. See Ohio.
WI - Safe D. Wisconsin is back to titanium D after a brief flirtation with Trumpism. Evers coattails will propel Baldwin to victory.
WY - Lean D. This might seem hackish, but do you guys really think the blue wave won't hit Wyoming? Give me a break!

Any thoughts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

....

Any thoughts?

Whatever you're on, I hope you brought enough for everyone.

[MT Treasurer]

*tears*. Well done, haha.

[Dr. Arch]

 

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Completely not funny but I am somehow laughing anyways.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

VT - Lean R. Rs hard good primary turnout, and Scott's coattails will drag down the old socialist Bernie for good.

No way VT is only Lean R. Likely to solid, I think.

[Politician]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

AZ - Safe D, Queen of Arizona Kyrsten Sinema would defeat God himself in an election here.
CA - Lean Feinstein, De Leon will win 47 year old inner city Los Angeles gay Latino businessmen, but will it be enough?
CT - Lean D, Malloy will drag down Murphy.
DE- Lean R, a Gravis poll shows Carper is in deep trouble.
FL - Safe D. Nelson was an astronaut.
HI - Toss Up. Hirono has cancer, also Republicans just improved on the Reuters generic ballot.
IN - Safe D. One word: Trafalgar. Also, Braun is a much worse candidate than Mourdock.
ME - Toss Up. Maine swung to Trump.
MD - Lean D. imo chelsea manning might run as an independent and hurt cardin imo.
MA - Lean R. Warren is an underperformer and Charlie Baker coattails will ensure the end of her political career.
MI - Likely R. James will win 90% of the black vote because he's black. Stabenow will need to run up the score with racist whites to compensate.
MN - Toss Up. #SmithMoreVulnerableThanTester. Also, MN almost voted Trump.
MS - Lean D. MS is very sexist (see 2016) and will therefore vote for Espy.
MO - Likely D. Only not safe D because Hawley works out at the gym and this might sway some female voters imo.
MT - Super Safe D. Every single citizen of the state will vote for Jon Tester, as agreed upon by the Montana Constitution and by every citizen who resides there, otherwise they face exile. also rosendale weak candidate imo.
NE - Safe R. Fischer will win by 50 points because a line on a Politico article told me she would.
NV - Super Safe R. Unbeatable Titan Dean Heller was unstoppable, but imo weak candidate jacky rosen only sealed the dems fate here imo.
NJ - Safe R. Menendez is corrupt and New Jersey HATES corruption.
NM - Likely R. Because of unbeatable titan Gary Johnson. Only keeping it at likely R rather than safe R because we don't know if Mick Rich will drop out yet.
NY - Lean D. NYC will get vengeance for Al Franken by voting Republican, but she can balance them out with Upstate Racists. imo she should be happy she's not facing strong candidate wendy long or else this would be at least lean r imo.
ND - Likely D. Retail politics and tariffs.
OH - Safe D. #populists
PA - Lean R. Barletta is very Trumpish and don't forget Trump won PA.
RI - Toss Up. Rhode Island swung R in 2016.
TN - Safe D. Unbeatable Titan Phil Bredesen won every county in 2006 and will do so again.
TX - Safe D. Texas swung to Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz was a #NeverTrumper which will hurt him with the base. O'Rourke's great campaign and good looks will cause him to dominate the 39 year old yoga practicing soap opera watching suburban demographic.
UT - Toss Up. Romney is an etch a sketch and also said 47%, plus this state swung hard D in 2016. imo if hatch was the nominee this would be safe d imo.
VT - Lean R. Rs hard good primary turnout, and Scott's coattails will drag down the old socialist Bernie for good.
VA - Toss Up. VIRGINIA IS STILL A SWING STATE! BARBARA COMSTOCK WOULD'VE MADE THIS RACE SAFE R IN A CLINTOOOOONNNN MIDTERRRRRMMMMMM.
WA - Lean D. This state is very white, so Cantwell needs to watch her back.
WV - Safe D. See Ohio.
WI - Safe D. Wisconsin is back to titanium D after a brief flirtation with Trumpism. Evers coattails will propel Baldwin to victory.
WY - Lean D. This might seem hackish, but do you guys really think the blue wave won't hit Wyoming? Give me a break!

Any thoughts?

You hack.

Wisconsin should be Safe R.

[IceSpear]

Okay guys, here are my ratings and #analysis. I worked really hard on these, so I hope you all like them.

VT - Lean R. Rs hard good primary turnout, and Scott's coattails will drag down the old socialist Bernie for good.

No way VT is only Lean R. Likely to solid, I think.

I see where you're coming from. Don't get me wrong here, Bernie's endorsed candidate in the Kansas City suburbs losing will hurt him bigly (imo that made the race go from toss up to lean r imo) but I still think enough Vermont hippies are feeling the Bern that he could potentially keep it close. But I respect your opinion.

It should also be noted that Brooke Paige is a very strong candidate. He was so strong that Vermont Republicans even nominated him for 6 different offices! Maybe you're right after all...

See, this is what Atlas is about. Reasonable, logical, polite debate.

[Xing]

Great map! I'd change Maine to Lean R, though, since Brakey works out even harder than Hawley.

[IceSpear]

Can you do this for the gubernatorial races as well?

Sure. Stay tuned!