Hindsight Is 2020

[mjwatts1983]

I love the Colbert Hunger Games!

But sad because Duckworth dropped out...

I was a Navy vet (2002-08). She is definitely an inspirational person.

Duckworth ran for Congress in 2006, nearly 2 years after her injuries. She lost that race.

I was proud that she kicked Joe Walsh's ass in 2012. Her senate win in 2016 was one of the few bright spots from Election Night.

When she took her oath as senator, she swore not on a Bible but the Constitution.

[Blackacre]

I love the Colbert Hunger Games!

But sad because Duckworth dropped out...

I was a Navy vet (2002-08). She is definitely an inspirational person.

Duckworth ran for Congress in 2006, nearly 2 years after her injuries. She lost that race.

I was proud that she kicked Joe Walsh's ass in 2012. Her senate win in 2016 was one of the few bright spots from Election Night.

When she took her oath as senator, she swore not on a Bible but the Constitution.

Tammy Duckworth's loss in her bid for President does nothing to diminish her accomplishments. She's still an Iraq War Vet, she's still a Senator from Illinois, and in fact she's still looking at probably a lifelong career as one of the Senate's most recognisable members.

[Blackacre]

Here’s some pre-primary polling for the next three states!

If The New Hampshire Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 20%
Sen. Baldwin: 18%
Sen. Franken: 17%
Sen. Booker: 16%
Sen. Brown: 10%
Sen. Wyden: 10%
Mayor de Blasio: 5%
Gov. Brown: 2%

If the Nevada Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Baldwin: 19%
Sen. Booker: 17%
Sen. Warren: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen: Franken: 12%
Mayor de Blasio: 9%
Sen. Wyden: 7%
Gov. Brown: 2%

If The South Carolina Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Booker: 25%
Sen. Brown: 19%
Mayor de Blasio: 15%
Sen. Warren: 12%
Sen. Franken: 8%
Sen. Baldwin: 4%
Gov. Brown: 1%
Sen. Wyden: 1%

Now, on with the debate!

Thursday, February 6th, 2020
The New Hampshire Debate

This debate had an element that had been requested by the base for a long time: moderators pulled from late night, left-wing comedy. John Oliver, Samantha Bee, and Trevor Noah were the ones asking questions. There were no jokes; all three were there for their knowledge of policy, not for their comedic talents. The debate was broadcast on the network home of Stephen Colbert: CBS.

Fresh off the heels of Sherrod Brown’s victory in the Iowa Caucuses, but also with Brown’s relatively poor polling in New Hampshire, he may as well have had a target painted on his back for attacks from the seven candidates who shared the stage with him. He got asked several loaded questions, on almost the same day that Marco Rubio’s operating system crashed four years prior. How’d he do? Pretty damn good. Here’s a recap of a sampling of what he was asked and how he answered.

Why did he vote against the 2008 immigration bill? Its provisions would have kept wages too low for both immigrant American workers and non-immigrant American workers. He did support the 2013 bill for addressing that concern, and he wholeheartedly supports Tammy Baldwin’s bill.

How would he be able to reverse Trump’s trade wars without going into free trade territory? By not being haphazard and hair-trigger-tempered. There would be possible trade deals but they would absolutely need to benefit American workers. The TPP didn’t meet that standard for him.

How can we trust him to not further violate civil liberties? His administration would be more transparent with its actions in national security than Trump or Obama.

That was just his performance, though; how’d everyone else do? Elizabeth Warren also nailed it. Railing against the banks and wall street is nothing new for her, but one line in particular allowed it all to come together:

Elizabeth Warren:
Yes, I do talk about Wall Street all the time. Do you want to know why? I do it because systemic problems this country faces have their roots there, and no President in recent history has been tough enough to actually solve those fundamental issues. I hope to be the one who succeeds where so many have failed.

Aside from that, nobody else really stood out. Booker was young and charismatic and flashy as always, Franken got into the nitty-gritty of tax policy but lacked a real wham line, and Baldwin kind of lost her thunder when Sherrod Brown complimented her immigration plan without trying to take credit for it.

And that was that. There was nothing more the candidates could do but go to their scheduled New Hampshire events until primary day.

Next time: New Hampshire votes!

[BuckeyeNut]

Very happy with all the delegate winners, but especially Sherrod. That pic you used is quite funny, what with the anachronistic URL.

[Blackacre]

Saturday, February 8th, 2020
The New Hampshire Primaries

New Hampshire Primary Vote Count: (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 26%
Sen. Baldwin: 20%
Sen. Franken: 18%
Sen. Brown: 16%
Sen. Booker: 10%
Sen. Wyden: 4%
Mayor de Blasio: 4%
Gov. Brown: 2%


Thanks to you, the people of New Hampshire, the fascist manchild in the White House is going to lose some sleep tonight! And so are the millionaires on Wall Street who know their time controlling American politics is coming to an end!

Elizabeth Warren scored an important win tonight, claiming New Hampshire by 6 points and proving herself as a main competitor in the primaries going forward. However, it wasn’t exactly an upset win. She led every single poll of New Hampshire the entire primary season, and she won New Hampshire. Though it’s worth noting that she beat her polls by a few points. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin did too.

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

Senator Elizabeth Warren: 19 Delegates
Senator Sherrod Brown: 18 Delegates
Senator Tammy Baldwin: 17 Delegates
Senator Al Franken: 16 Delegates
Unpledged: 6 Delegates
2,382 To Win

New Hampshire Primary Vote Count: (Republicans)
President Trump: 65%
Sen. Cruz: 35%


We may not have won today, but we revealed something that can no longer be ignored. The President may tell himself that the Republican Party and the conservative movement have kneeled to him, but we know that is not true!

Ted Cruz celebrated a moral victory today, while President Trump celebrated an actual victory.

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

President Donald Trump: 37 Delegates
Senator Ted Cruz: 16 Delegates
1,237 To Win

Next time: …to the fallen.

[Blackacre]

Author's note: I can do delegate allocation, but I can't hold down who the damn Speaker of the House is! First it was Becerra, then it was Castro, but then I talked it over with a friend (TimTurner, you da man) and we realised that Hoyer wasn't going to retire. So he's the Speaker now.

[Blackacre]

Monday, February 10th, 2020
Hungry for Power Games: Oregon Fail

 


Yes, yes, welcome citizens to the Hungry for Power Games! Tributes, assemble! Oh, their ranks are thinning, and the pile of corpses the winner will stand upon is ever growing. Today, that pile of corpses got a little larger. Governor Brown suspended her campaign after coming in dead last in New Hampshire. Wait, why would Brown drop out? He won Iowa and is in a pretty good spot to…

I’ve just been told that is a completely different person. Governor Kate Brown of Oregon is the one who quit, and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown won Iowa. Do you see how confusing this is? It’s no wonder she didn’t get any votes; nobody remembered which Brown she was! She was so forgettable that, and this is completely true, when the gamemakers at Fivethirtyeight profiled the 2020 Democratic Candidates, they confused her with former California Governor Jerry Brown. So naturally, the Presidential race was a steep climb for Kate Brown. But to her credit, she did try to distinguish herself.


So what do you want, America? Do you want someone who spends every day grandstanding on the floor of the Senate to make themself look good? Or do you want someone who spends every day working to improve the lives of the people of Oregon?

Stephen Colbert:
Let’s find out! Senate grandstanders: 70 Delegates. Hard worker for Oregon: 0 Delegates! Zilch! Looks like the grandstanders won this one! Well, the grandstanders, minus one:


I am sad to announce that today I will be suspending my campaign for President. However, while I won’t be able to fight for your civil liberties on the national stage any more, I will continue that fight in the United States Senate.

Stephen Colbert:
Poor, poor Ron Wyden. He was supposed to be a different kind of Democrat willing to take on the  important issues. However, he turned out to just be a weak kind of Democrat willing to take on the issue of “why don’t people like me?” Turns out, when you radically depart from your party’s norms, your party isn’t going to like you! When’s the last time someone bucked their own party and still became president — oh right. Well, to quote the man you wanted to emulate, “Phoney Ron Wyden is pathetic. He’ll never be President no matter how hard he wants it. Sad!”

For the six remaining candidates, the battle continues. But for the rest of us, well, let us pay tribute, to the fallen.

THE FALLEN
JERRY KATE BROWN
DISTRICT: BEIGE

THE FALLEN
RON WYDEN
DISTRICT: RON LOSEN

Here’s NV/SC Democratic polling before those states finally vote!

If the Nevada Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Baldwin: 20%
Sen. Booker: 20%
Sen. Warren: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen: Franken: 8%
Mayor de Blasio: 6%

If The South Carolina Primaries Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Booker: 25%
Sen. Brown: 20%
Mayor de Blasio: 18%
Sen. Warren: 10%
Sen. Baldwin: 10%
Sen. Franken: 7%

Next time: the Democratic Nevada Primary is upon us!
Next time: the Republican South Carolina Primary is upon us!

[Blackacre]

Today's update is actually going to be a map of the 2018 House elections. Huge shout-out to TimTurner! And shout-out to megameow for the template.



This map results in 227 seats for the Democratic Party, and a speakership for Steny Hoyer. (again, I am so sorry I changed the identity of the Speaker twice now, I'm like 90% sure this time will stick)

[You don't see any blue avatars now]

Deep down, we're all the speaker.

[BuckeyeNut]

No endorsements from Governor Brown or Sen. Wyden upon dropping out?

Also liking those Ohio results.

[Blackacre]

No endorsements from Governor Brown or Sen. Wyden upon dropping out?

Also liking those Ohio results.

No endorsements yet, both former candidates are taking a wait and see approach

[Blackacre]

Thursday, February 20th, 2020
Democratic Nevada Primary and Republican South Carolina Primary

Nevada Primary Vote Count:
Sen. Baldwin: 23%
Sen. Booker: 20%
Sen. Brown: 17%
Sen. Warren: 16%
Mayor de Blasio: 12%
Sen: Franken: 12%


Thanks to you, Nevada, tonight is the beginning of something historic. Thanks to you, we are one step closer to having a President who wants to tear down barriers instead of build them, who wants to make life better for the people instead of for the corporate cronies, who cares about creating a legacy instead of dismantling a legacy!

Tammy Baldwin brought home a win! Her popularity with hispanics and endorsement from Catherine Cortez-Mastro paid off, and now she is on the map with Warren and Brown. However, she was also highly ranked in New Hampshire and Iowa. Placing top three is not new for her. Take a look at who came in second. While Booker didn’t win the state, his strong showing seems to indicate that more diverse states will go more his way than Iowa and New Hampshire. Time will tell if this plays out.

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
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Senator Tammy Baldwin: 29 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 28 Delegates
Senator Sherrod Brown: 27 Delegates
Senator Al Franken: 16 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker: 10 Delegates
Unpledged: 9 Delegates
2,382 To Win

South Carolina Primary Vote Count: (Republicans)
President Trump: 62%
Sen. Cruz: 38%

Ted Cruz nearly reached 40% in South Carolina, but he got absolutely zero delegates from it. Sad!

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

President Donald Trump: 87 Delegates
Senator Ted Cruz: 16 Delegates
1,237 To Win

Next time: The six remaining Democrats have a debate before South Carolina votes!

[GoTfan]

Clip from Secular Talk's February 21st, 2020 shoe. Title: Winners and Losers of the Early Primaries

Okay, so we had the first . . . round, I'd guess you call it, of the Democratic primary come to an end yesterday. Now these early states are always critical to the race, as you know. So who were the big losers?

Well first: Andrew Cuomo. The first candidate to drop out. Let's face, he was gonna get nowhere in the first place; he's so blatantly corrupt that he doesn't even try to hide it. Maria Cantwell. Who is she again? I don't remember. Tammy Duckworth. This one I'm a little upset about because she's a center-left to left liberal, but she'll remain a strong voice in the Senate. Tom Wolf. On paper, he's the perfect candidate; he's won twice in a midwestern state that Trump won in 2016 against a Republican legislature, but he's just SOOOOOOOOOOOO boring. Kate Brown. Again, someone I'm a little upset for because she's a true progressive. Ron Wyden. This guy's a libertarian Democrat, so while he's mostly good on social issues, he's completely bats**t on everything else. The final big loser? You get one guess *pauses* you're right, it's *Ted Cruz impression* Meehhhhhhhhh I'm Ted Cruz meeehhhh *end impression*. I said at the start of the primary that his crazy theocratic nonsense doesn't have any place anymore, but he refused to lister; therefore, we have him embarrassing himself yet again.

And the winners? Well obviously we have Donald Trump. So the news there isn't brilliant, but for the Democrats, the news is just f***ing brilliant. So currently leading the delegate count is Tammy Baldwin with 29. She's one of the most progressive Senators in the country, so that's good. Right behind her on 28 is Elizabeth Warren; no need to explain why that's good. Then right behind them is Sherrod Brown; you already know my opinion on him. Then we have Al Franken on 16; he's a solid liberal. Then we have *shudders* Cory Booker; the last gasp of the Third Way Democrats on 10.

So, we're going to have a pretty interesting Primary ahead of us. Not to mention that if Cruz gains some steam (which he unfortunately seems to be) then the Republicans might end up with their own Carter-Kennedy situation from 1980. In fact, this already resembles 1980 in reverse; an unpopular incumbent facing a powerful primary challenge from the grassroots wing of their party; while the other has a charismatic radical as the frontrunner.

So, it's a great time to be a progressive in the United States at the moment.

[Blackacre]

Saturday, February 22nd, 2020
The First Southern Debate

Now that the Democratic field has shrunk to only six candidates, the debates could get more interesting. Everyone had more time to talk and there was nothing wasted on irrelevance. Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, and Brian Williams brought their best, and so did the six hopefuls standing before them.

Right away everybody seemed to go to their familiar scripts. Warren railed against Wall Street, Franken got into minutia, Baldwin spoke of the necessity of a kind immigration policy. It was pretty clear that the aforementioned three just wanted to look and sound good, get their message out, and not crash while the three other candidates went for each other’s throats. In all fairness, Baldwin had good lines about poverty and welfare, and did a really good job contrasting herself from Brown, Booker, and de Blasio.

But if you were waiting for the Democratic Primary to get ugly, wait no more. Brown, Booker, and de Blasio needed to do well in South Carolina to put their strategies together. Booker needed the Southern Firewall to come to his aid, de Blasio needed to get a win under his belt, and Brown needed to be a convincing alternative to the other two.

They squabbled on many issues, but the most heated exchange came on criminal justice reform and policing. Just… just look.

Mayor de Blasio:
I’m the only one in this room who doesn’t work in Washington, who has experience actually making these changes. While Cory Booker and Sherrod Brown talk about reform, I’ve done it in New York City.

Cory Booker:
And look at your approvals, Mr. Mayor. Look at the numbers of people who still die in your city because of bad policing. You have a lot more to do before you can brag about your city’s success.

Bill de Blasio:
At least I’m doing something! How is grandstanding on the floor of the Senate saving any lives?

Cory Booker:
You want to talk about grandstanding? Days after Donald Trump won the election, you made a big gesture about how your city was going to move in the opposite direction and become this utopia beacon of equality. But you didn’t actually make any major changes!

Sherrod Brown:
I believe I have the right to speak since my name was mentioned. I’d just like to point out to the Mayor that I, and my colleagues, have been working in the Senate. You know what we did? We made sure that stop and frisk didn’t become national policy!

Bill de Blasio:
Senator, Do you really believe the voters of South Carolina won’t see through your pandering?

Sherrod Brown:
Is it pandering to care when an innocent, unarmed black teenager gets shot down in Cleveland? Is it pandering to show the voters my plan to prevent shooting like that in the future? What about my plan to eliminate the biases in our criminal justice system? Or the bail reforms I’ve been working on in the Senate for years that I could maybe get passed as President? Is ending the school-to-prison pipeline pandering? Because if all that is pandering, what have you been doing?

Free-for-alls like that were the theme of the entire evening. While Booker and Brown kept their composure, de Blasio figuratively collapsed under the pressure, his composure steadily breaking over the course of the night.

And then, as if to add insult to injury, something happened the following day:

Sunday, February 23rd, 2020

The Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee has not yet come to a decision on which candidate we will be endorsing. Given their records and public statements, we are very impressed with Senators Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker. We will see how both men do in the coming weeks before making an official endorsement.

Four years ago, a pivotal moment in the primary was when the Congressional Black Caucus’s PAC chose Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders. This time? They seem to have dual-endorsed Cory Booker and Sherrod Brown, while leaving Bill de Blasio completely in the dust. Ouch.

Next time: Democrats vote in South Carolina and Republicans vote in Nevada!

[Blackacre]

Monday, February 24th, 2020


A year ago I made the decision to have fifteen Democratic Primary debates. While some of these debates have been informative, substantive events, many others have failed to convey any new information to the voters, and because of this, each debate seems to have decreasing viewership. Because of this, the Democratic National Committee will be removing two debates from the calendar: one in April and one in May. This was not done to benefit any candidate over any other candidate, but to allow all the candidates more time to hold events on their own terms and make the positive case for themselves, rather than stand on a stage and attack each other. Thank you.

[GoTfan]

Clip from Secular Talk's show on February 23rd, 2020. Title: Tal Schnieder, Israeli politico, live via satellite

So we're trying something different today. Joining us live from Israel is journalist Tal Schneider. Thanks for being with us today.

Hello, Kyle! Thank you for having me!

Okay, so jumping right in, then. To an outsider like yourself, how does this election look? Purely from an outsider perspective.

Well, so far, it certainly looks better than the previous elections. Sure, Donald Trump is still insulting fellow politicians, but at least in the Democratic Party it looks like a much more friendly, and more importantly, balanced contest. They manage to make this election season, so far, look much less dark than 2016. As for the country I come from, from what I can tell, the majority of the Israeli public doesn't really follow the primaries, or really any part of the elections too closely, but since the majority of Israelis are in the right I'd say Trump has an edge in support here.

You recently had Sherrod Brown as the leading Democrat. Has this changed at all with Tammy Baldwin's win in Nevada?

Well, Baldwin certainly moved up the list, but seeing the South Carolina polls, it looks like Brown is in a unique position to gain the support of both African-Americans and the working class voters. So no, I still have him on top.

Okay, so now for Donald Drumpf. Can you see any major bumps in the road ahead for him?

*Laughs.* Well, certainly. He can't really claim to be an outsider anymore, and the Democrats seem poised to nominate someone with little to no baggage and strong grassroots support. If I were Trump, I'd be rooting hard for Senator Booker. As for Cruz... so far he doesn't seem to be much of a road bump, more like a mosquito, but that could change if Trump becomes less popular because of some special event and Cruz remains as an option on the ballot.

Can you see any parallels with the 1980 election? To me, it seems like this is almost 1980 in reverse; particularly if the Texas theocrat gains steam.

Well, if we see any strong third party emerge, it will seem like a very good comparison, if not on the ideological level, on the statistical level. Ted Cruz is no Ted Kennedy in his party, but both are very ideological, and if Trump continues to lose popularity, the incumbent could lose in a landslide- though I doubt that anyone could lose by so much in 2020.

Israeli journalist Tal Schneider everyone. Link to her website's in the description below. Do take a look at it; it gives a great insight into the election and rates how likely a candidate is to be inaugurated as President on January 20th.

[Blackacre]

Oh my god, you two are the best I'm so grateful for you two!
Tonight's update is coming in a matter of hours!

[Blackacre]

Thursday, February 27th, 2020
The Democratic South Carolina Primary and the Republican Nevada Caucus

South Carolina Vote Count:
Sen. Booker: 27%
Sen. Brown: 23%
Sen. Baldwin: 17%
Sen. Warren: 13%
Sen. Franken: 11%
Mayor de Blasio: 9%


Thank you South Carolina! This may have been our first win, but it won’t be our last! We celebrate tonight, just as we’ll celebrate on Super Tuesday, and the convention, and in November when we take back the White House!

Cory Booker finally got a win in South Carolina. But there’s not as much reason for him to celebrate as he thinks. When de Blasio collapsed, by all means those votes should have gone to him. But, they didn’t. a lot of those votes went to Senator Sherrod Brown, who only lost to Booker by 4 points and got quite a few delegates from Booker’s key state. But since Brown put a lot of time and energy into this one state, whether he can replicate this in other Southern states is an open question.

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
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Senator Sherrod Brown: 46 Delegates
Senator Tammy Baldwin: 45 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker: 32 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 28 Delegates
Senator Al Franken: 16 Delegates
Unpledged: 11 Delegates
2,382 To Win

Nevada Caucus Vote Count: (Republicans)
President Trump: 66%
Sen. Cruz: 34%

No major surprises. Ted Cruz hasn’t won a single state or even cracked 40 yet. However, his home state of Texas is in the Super Tuesday Lineup, so perhaps his home turf can save him?

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

President Donald Trump: 107 Delegates
Senator Ted Cruz: 26 Delegates
1,237 To Win

Next time: Tributes, assemble!

[Blackacre]

Friday, February 28th, 2020
Hungry for Power Games: Bill de Bye-bye

 

 
Yes, yes! Welcome one, welcome all, to the Hungry for Power Games. Tributes, assemble! Oh, how their ranks are thinning. There used to be so many, now there’s… well, still too many. Sadly, citizens, it appears we have lost another tribute to the Games: New York Mayor and villain of Jack Beanstalk Bill de Blasio. The Mayor’s campaign started out so promising, too. Running on a platform of fixing our criminal justice system, a fairer tax plan, and his experience actually doing what he said he wants to, de Blasio was set to be one of the major players in the Democratic Hungry for Power Games. Sadly for Bill, he was torn into limb from limb at the last debate, until all that remained was a corpse and an accent. And he went from polling high in South Carolina to finishing dead last! Voters avoided him like he had a plague! I guess there’s an infallible truth in the world of Trump: the bigger the hands, the less likely you are to become President. With that, let us bid farewell, to the fallen!

THE FALLEN
BILL DE BLASIO
DISTRICT: MANHATTAN

Next time: the final five have a debate before Super Tuesday sets the terms of the race!

[Blackacre]

Sunday, March 1st, 2020
Prelude To Super Tuesday: The Debate: Hosted by CNN

Nobody was making a play for a specific state. Everybody on stage already had delegates. There were only five candidates remaining. At long last, we had a Democratic Primary debate with all the fat trimmed off.

The audience expected verbal bombs and were not disappointed. Elizabeth Warren claimed that everybody on the stage but her was vying to be a pawn of the establishment, and that she was the only one who could represent the grassroots who supported Bernie Sanders four years ago. Cory Booker’s response: “At what point in the last eight years while you were positioning yourself to be President did you come up with that line?”

Booker’s attention turned to Sherrod Brown. “Somebody should remind the man from Ohio that the Iowa caucuses don’t represent this party. We shouldn’t take the myth of the white working class as proof that we should nominate another white panderer who will keep black and brown voters at home.”

Brown shot back, “If all I do is pander, why did the Congressional Black Caucus say they were impressed with me? It wasn’t because of my voice.”

Despite this, the two candidates who made the fewest attacks had the best lines. From Tammy Baldwin, “We can’t be a party that spends all its time looking back at what went wrong. I’m not in this because someone told me I check all the right boxes, I’m in this because I have solutions to our current problems and want to create a better future for all of us.”

Finally, a line from Al Franken: “I’m worried about what a Presidential candidate who prefers to attack their opponents to dealing in policy solutions could do to this country. Donald Trump has done so much damage by being like that, and I don’t want this party to fall into the same trap.”

So that was the debate. How much it affected voters’ intentions is unclear, but next time, we find out! Super Tuesday is upon us!

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting line fro Franken...

[Blackacre]

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020
Super Tuesday Part 1: The Democrats

Alabama Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Booker: 40% - 26 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 33% - 21 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 15% - 11 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 7%
Sen. Franken: 5%
(58 Pledged, 2 Unpledged)

American Samoa Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Baldwin: 46% - 5 Delegates
Sen. Franken: 32% - 4 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 10%
Sen. Warren: 7%
Sen. Booker: 5%
(9 Pledged, 2 Unpledged)

Arkansas Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Brown: 41% - 15 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 34% - 12 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 16% - 8 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 6%
Sen. Franken: 3%
(35 Pledged, 2 Unpledged)

Colorado Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Warren: 40% - 33 Delegates
Sen. Franken: 25% - 22 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 20% - 19 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 8%
Sen. Brown: 7%
(74 Pledged, 4 Unpledged)

Georgia Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Booker: 37% - 44 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 34% - 41 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 17% - 22 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 8%
Sen. Franken: 4%
(107 Pledged, 5 Unpledged)

Massachusetts Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Warren: 70% - 82 Delegates
Sen. Franken: 16% - 25 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 7%
Sen. Brown: 4%
Sen. Baldwin: 3%
(107 Pledged, 8 Unpledged)

Minnesota Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation: (added)
Sen. Franken: 75% - 72 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 11% - 16 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 6%
Sen. Brown: 5%
Sen. Baldwin: 3%
(88 Pledged, 5 Unpledged)

Oklahoma Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Brown: 48% - 22 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 19% - 10 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 15% - 9 Delegates
Sen. Franken: 11%
Sen. Booker: 7%
(41 Pledged, 1 Unpledged)

Tennessee Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Brown: 37% - 39 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 29% - 33 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 14%
Sen. Baldwin: 12%
Sen. Franken: 8%
(72 Pledged, 3 Unpledged)

Texas Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Baldwin: 40% - 113 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 24% - 75 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 15% - 53 Delegates
Sen. Warren: 13%
Sen. Franken: 8%
(241 Pledged, 10 Unpledged)

Vermont Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Warren: 51% - 14 Delegates
Sen. Franken: 25% - 9 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 9%
Sen. Baldwin: 8%
Sen. Booker: 7%
(23 Pledged, 3 Unpledged)

Virginia Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
Sen. Warren: 35% - 42 Delegates
Sen. Booker: 29% - 35 Delegates
Sen. Brown: 21% - 27 Delegates
Sen. Baldwin: 9%
Sen. Franken: 6%
(104 Pledged, 5 Unpledged)

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

Senator Sherrod Brown: 286 Delegates
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 244 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker: 235 Delegates
Senator Tammy Baldwin: 203 Delegates
Senator Al Franken: 148 Delegates
Unpledged: 61 Delegates
4,707 Delegates
1,177 Allocated
2,382 To Win

Super Tuesday came and went for the Democrats, and everybody had both something to be excited about and something to worry about:

Sherrod Brown’s victories may not seem obvious from the map, considering he only won Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. But take a look at the margins. Brown kept it close in the South, which was thought to be solid Booker territory. He got large amounts of delegates from Georgia, Alabama, and Texas. In a large and divided Democratic field where the first prize is never constant, winning consistent seconds and thirds is enough to give Brown a delegate lead out of Super Tuesday.

However, he had piss-poor performances in Minnesota and the Northeast, to the point where the 4 delegates he got from New Hampshire were the only Brown delegates in all of New England so far. There’s also the fact that he hasn’t won all that many states yet, and while getting the second-most delegates on average is good, it’s still not pulling in the state wins he’ll need.

Elizabeth Warren crushed the opposition in Massachusetts and won handily in Colorado and New England, potentially setting herself up to be the primary alternative to Sherrod Brown going forward. She even pulled off a surprise win in Virginia! However, she has a clear issue going forward: she hasn’t done well so far in the South or Midwest, and it’s unclear how much a Northeast + Mountain and Pacific West coalition could get her, especially considering that the first non-Colorado mountain west state, Oklahoma, did not go for her.

Cory Booker won the South and pulled in some delegates from Oklahoma and Tennessee and Virginia, putting him on the map in a significant way. However, he didn’t get the commanding delegate lead from those victories that Hillary Clinton got four years prior, due to Sherrod Brown soaking up a lot of votes. On top of that, it’s unclear where else he can go for delegates now that the South is mostly accounted for. He still has Mississippi, North Carolina, Louisiana, Missouri, and Florida, but that’s not enough to get to 2,382 delegates or really anywhere close.

Finally, Al Franken won Minnesota.

Next time: The Republicans just had their Super Tuesday as well, let’s take a look at it!

[Blackacre]

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2020
Super Tuesday Part 2: The Republicans

Alabama Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 60% - 30 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 40% - 20 Delegates
(50 Delegates, Proportional)

Alaska Caucus Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 57% - 15 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 43% - 13 Delegates
(28 Delegates, Proportional)

Arkansas Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 75% - 30 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 25% - 10 Delegates
(40 Delegates, Proportional)

Colorado Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 37 Delegates
(37 Delegates, Unbound)

Georgia Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 66% - 50 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 34% - 26 Delegates
(76 Delegates, Proportional)

Massachusetts Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 67% - 28 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 33% - 14 Delegates
(42 Delegates, Proportional)

Minnesota Caucus Vote Count/Delegate Allocation: (added)
President Trump: 60% - 23 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 40% - 15 Delegates
(38 Delegates, Proportional)

North Dakota Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 28 Delegates
(28 Delegates, Unbound)

Oklahoma Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 55% - 24 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 45% - 19 Delegates
(43 Delegates, Proportional)

Tennessee Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 60% - 35 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 40% - 23 Delegates
(58 Delegates, Proportional)

Texas Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 51% - 155 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 49%
(155 Delegates, Winner Takes All)

Vermont Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 75% - 12 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 25% - 4 Delegates
(16 Delegates, Proportional)

Virginia Primary Vote Count/Delegate Allocation:
President Trump: 70% - 34 Delegates
Sen. Cruz: 30% - 15 Delegates
(49 Delegates, Proportional)

American Samoa
Americans Abroad
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
US Virgin Islands

President Donald Trump: 608 Delegates
Senator Ted Cruz: 185 Delegates
1,237 To Win


Do you see what just happened? I’m not talking about the Democrats fighting like the bunch of whiny babies they are. Don’t worry, we’ll crush them later. But did you see Lyin’ Ted? It’s so pathetic, he couldn’t even win his home state. I got like 400 delegates over him. He hasn’t won a single state! It’s cute that he tried to beat me, but come on, he never had a chance!

Poor, poor Ted Cruz. Just the win in Texas would have given him steam, made him look competitive, and worried President Trump and RNC Chair Ivanka Trump. But like Rubio in Florida, the Republicans in Cruz’s home state didn’t want him.

Next time: The Democrats get some endorsements after Super Tuesday!

[Blackacre]

Friday, March 6th, 2020

With Super Tuesday over, influential individuals and groups within the Democratic Party finally started to come out of the shadows and make some endorsements.


Elizabeth Warren is exactly who this country needs right now. I’m proud to stand by her.

That’s all well and good, but plenty of major endorsers chose to continue to stand to the side, including Schumer, Carter, and Edwards: the very people who Cory Booker needed to come to his side after Super Tuesday.

Next time: It’s like the Hunger Games…
(author's note: that last one is Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse)

[BuckeyeNut]

Poor Cruz. So close in Texas.