Hindsight Is 2020

[Blackacre]

Saturday, February 2nd, 2019



Americans are sick of having a man as President who only pretends to care about them, a man who claims to be the voice of the people while giving himself and his cronies massive tax cuts and expects the rest of us to pay for them. I’ve spent my entire life fighting people like Donald Trump: as a consumer advocate, as a Senator from the great state of Massachusetts, and now, as a candidate for President of the United States of America!

Speaking at Harvard University, the school where she once taught classes, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren became the first declared candidate for the 2020 US Presidential Election. Absolutely everybody saw this coming; she had spent plenty of time in next-door New Hampshire, was a darling of the left, fought President Trump using everything she had as a Senator, and was a speculated candidate in 2016 that was cleared away to make room for Hillary Clinton. In the weeks and months after Trump’s upset victory many liberals groaned that someone like Warren could have easily done what Clinton had failed to do that year.


It may seem obvious now, but you know what they say: Hindsight is 2020.


Next time: A background on Trump’s first 2 years that’s both way too brief and way too long!
(note: once I have multiple declared candidates I'll be doing primary polling. I'll include suggestions for hypothetical candidates who may or may not take the plunge)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

And so it begins.

[Blackacre]

And so it begins.

Yup! I've been bugging you about this for a week, it's about time it actually bears fruit!

[Blackacre]

Background: The Trump Years


President Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States on January 20th, 2017, and immediately got to work on his agenda. A scant 8 days later, the Republican-controlled Congress sent President Trump his very first bill: a gutting of Obamacare passed through reconciliation. The bill kept the ban on denying coverage to pre-existing conditions and allowing young people to stay on their parents’ plan until the age of 26, but removed the individual mandate and medicaid expansion that had been at the core of the bill. This caused healthcare costs to rise faster than it had been under the full ACA. More on Trump’s relationship with Congress in a bit; first we must cover what he did on his own.


To the surprise of many, Trump was able to implement tariffs on goods made overseas on his own, without Congress. While it was nice for grandstanding on trade, any jobs that were coerced into coming back to the USA were offset by the price hike the tariffs brought. The economy soon slowed to a crawl. While his advisors were able to get him to back down from his initial stance on NATO, the world would have to get used to a United States that was a lot friendlier to Russia. Assad’s government quickly stabilised, but President Trump has gained no ground against ISIS. Progress the US made in restoring its image under the Obama years was reversed within the first six months of Trump’s Presidency, except with Russia and Syria. Trump’s Muslim ban took the form of banning immigration from several majority-Muslim countries, which sparked protest throughout the nation.


On the domestic front, Trump’s first 100 days proved complicated. Congressional Democrats were united against many parts of Trump’s agenda. This applied double in the Senate, where Democrats enjoyed crossover votes from Collins, Sasse, and Paul quite frequently, and occasionally Sen. Flake. Majority Leader McConnell, under pressure to end the filibuster forever, chose not to in the name of preserving the institution of the Senate. After all, that institution was worth more to McConnell than Trump’s infrastructure bill and maternal leave plan, and the budget was already immune to the filibuster. The Wall languished in the Senate, and while President Trump campaigned across the nation to try to strongarm Democratic Senators into relenting on the filibuster, they did not.


President Trump was easily able to get his tax plan through, constituting a massive tax cut for high earners and a raise in taxes for lower earners. Predictably, the economy suffered for it, and the deficit began to swell. The true problem came in the form of Medicare. Opposition groups quickly mobilised to, if nothing else, prevent Paul Ryan’s medicare-killing, medicaid-killing budget from becoming law. Just like with Social Security in 2005, it worked. The budget Trump signed into law left social welfare programs completely untouched.


The biggest fight came over the Supreme Court. Obviously Garland would not be renominated, but a fight with Senate Democrats ended in the compromise candidate Charles T. Canady being nominated and ultimately confirmed. He mostly voted the way Scalia would have, the compromise being his relatively advanced age.


His Presidency was also plagued by scandal. He was never quite able to escape the cloud of Russia interfering with the election, and conflicts of interest between the Trump White House and the Trump organisation were widespread. His lack of experience showed; while things went well initially, over time it became clear how terribly he ran his White House. Each scandal sapped away at his approval ratings and hampered his ability to govern, and they affected all sorts of federal departments. Appointing as cabinet members people like Giuliani, Gingrich, and Palin was a recipe for disaster.


Next time: The second and third of many Democrats follows Warren’s lead and enters the fray!
(I'm going to be off the grid this weekend, so the next update will be Monday)

[Blackacre]

(surprise! I got back a little sooner than I thought I would. Enjoy the update, and if you leave a comment I'll appreciate it.)

Tuesday, February 12th, 2019


I’m running for President because I want everybody in America to know that they have a place here. Every day I see the people of the city I love so much, and every day I see the fear in their eyes. Wondering if they’ll be the next to be deported. Wondering if they’ll be on the evening news because of an encounter with a police officer who wrongly thinks they’re dangerous. Donald Trump promised to bring law and order to this country, but what has become painfully clear is that “law and order” does not mean safety and security for our people. For so many of us, it means the opposite.

Well, somebody was going to use Lincoln’s Birthday to announce a Presidential run, and it turned out to be New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, known during the Trump years for going directly against the President’s Law and Order rhetoric by making reforms to his city’s criminal justice system. While it made him a rival of the NYPD, it also made him a darling to many on the left.


If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?*
Mayor de Blasio: 17%
Sen. Warren: 16%
*The polls are about as reliable as you would expect them to be in February the year before the election. While they give a decent idea about the state of the race, they’re no science*


de Blasio and Warren were both nationally recognised and highly expected to run this year, but the third contender... was not.


Thursday, February 14th, 2019


For too long I have witnessed a country turning to hate because of President Trump’s actions. I’ve done what I can to help Oregon rise above the example set in Washington, and it’s safe to say I’ve had some success, but you cannot solve a problem without taking out its source. That is why I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States of America!

The third declared candidate, and the first Governor to do so, Governor Kate Brown of Oregon made a little history as the first openly LGBTQ candidate for a major party’s nomination for President. Executive experience, a high approval rating back home, and distance (both physical and political) from Washington DC give her strong selling points, but Gov. Brown was initially hindered by her low name recognition outside of her home state.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 18%
Mayor de Blasio: 16%
Gov. Brown: 10%

Next time: We take another look back, this time at the 2017 elections in New Jersey and Virginia!

[Blackacre]

Background Part 2: 2017

Trump's policies hadn’t taken full effect by November of 2017. President Trump’s twitter rants were few and far between, and while the economy wasn’t great at this point, Trump was able to keep his approvals above 40 for most of the year. This still wasn’t a great position for the Republicans to be in for the Virginia and New Jersey Gubernatorial elections.

Virginia Gubernatorial:
Lt. Gov Ralph Northam: (D) 52%
Ed Gillepsie: (R) 45%

Democrats made gains in the VA legislature, but not enough to take over either the House of Delegates or the General Assembly.


New Jersey Gubernatorial:
Phil Murphy: (D) 56%
Lt. Gov Kim Guadagno: (R) 41%

Democrats increased their control over the New Jersey legislature.


Current map of Gubernatorial control:

D: 17 (+1)
R: 32 (-1)
I: 1


Next time: Something else happens in 2017 that we need to look at!

[Blackacre]

December 17th, 2017

The Supreme Court handed down a decision that affected millions of Americans. In the case ACLU v. Sessions, the Court ruled 5-4 that the Muslim Registry created by Attorney General Jeff Sessions on the orders of President Trump was unconstitutional because it violated the 1st Amendment through religious discrimination. Justice Kennedy sided with Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan while the new justice Canady sided with the conservatives.

Through this ruling, the court forced the administration to shut down the registry that had been occurring since March. Protestors were already making a consistent effort to shut it down by swarming registration offices, and appeals courts weren't very friendly to it either. With this decision, President Trump's Muslim registration plan died. He would have to get a similar law passed by Congress, and even then he would have to replace another Supreme Court Justice for it to stick.

The President complained in a series of tweets about biased judges, leading some people to worry that he wouldn't abide by the ruling, but thankfully that didn't actually happen.

Next time: We flash back forward to 2019 as two more Democrats announce their candidacy!

[Blackacre]

Monday, February 25th, 2019



We are living in a world in which nothing you say or do is private. For the supposed purpose of keeping us safe, our government has for too long been spying on its own people, and under our current President it’s taken a turn more dangerous than I could have thought. We need somebody to stand up to the civil liberties of our people, from the Muslim hoping that each day isn’t the day the President gets his way on creating a registry for people like him to the small business owner in my home state whose life would be ruined if a government mishap caused his personal info to leak. We need, more than ever, a President willing to rein in the surveillance state, and I believe I am the only one willing to do it!

A fierce defender of Civil Liberties during both the Obama and Trump years, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden was the second Oregonian to become a candidate for President. His civil libertarian streak certainly set him apart from his rivals, earning him a solid base of support.
 
If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 18%
Sen. Wyden: 16%
Mayor de Blasio: 14%
Sen. Franken: 13%
Gov. Brown: 9%

March has just begun, and our five declared candidates are: A liberal lion seen by the left in the same esteem as Bernie Sanders, the Democrats' only non-hypocritical civil libertarian, a famous mayor known for his attempts to address the racial divide in his city, a former SNL comedian turned workhorse Senator, and a bisexual governor with tragically little name recognition. These five, however, don't even scratch the surface of the Democratic field we're about to see. With Hillary Clinton out of the picture, the old establishment in tatters, and Bernie Sanders bowing out, the Democratic field is wide open for any candidate who thinks they have what it takes to stop The Donald. And given what happened a scant four months prior, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic.

Next time: We take a look at the 2018 Congressional Elections!

(note from the author: for some reason my images keep failing to appear on the page. I have to modify my posts to get the images working again and even then it only lasts so long. Does anyone else have this problem? Anyone know of a way I can fix it? Without the images it's much harder to show who I'm quoting at a given time.)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I look forward to the 2018 midterms.

[NeverAgain]

I look forward to the 2018 midterms.

[Kingpoleon]

Wyden and Franken are the two I would vote for.

[Blackacre]

Background Part 3: 2018 Congressional Elections

By 2018, things were looking worse. The National Debt was 22 Trillion Dollars due to a ballooned deficit, unemployment hovering around 8.5%, and prices were high due to the Trump Tariffs. The 2018 Midterms were upon us.

I’m only covering 13 Senatorial races that show more interest, though let me know if you want me to detail a race that’s not covered here. And don’t worry, Gubernatorial races are coming soon!

edit: also doing a couple of safe seats with retirements.

Texas:
Democrats saw Ted Cruz’ Texas seat as a mouthwatering pickup opportunity in early 2018. Both Castro brothers declined to run for it, leaving Rep. Beto O'Rourke to take the plunge. His dream of unseating Cruz did not end well for him.

Sen. Ted Cruz: (R) 54%
Rep. Beto O'Rourke: (D) 42%


Indiana:
Rep. Marlin Stutzman gave the Senate run another go, and this time locked up his party’s nomination to take on Sen. Donnelly. Donnelly won easily.

Sen. Joe Donnelly: (D) 52%
Rep. Marlin Stutzman: (R) 47%


Arizona:
Sen. Flake had high approvals in his state, but not so much among Arizona’s Republican Party. State Rep Kelli Ward challenged Flake for the nomination on the grounds of his opposition to The Wall and other Trump Administration proposals. She succeeded in an upset, in a night that shocked and saddened close to all of Flake’s colleagues.

The Democrats nominated Astronaut and husband of Former Rep. Giffords, Mark Kelly. In a close race that came down to the wire, Kelly picked up the seat for the Democrats. Flake’s refusal to endorse Ward didn’t exactly hurt Kelly, especially because it helped him run ads contrasting Flake’s senatorial record with Ward.


Mark Kelly: (D) 49%
State Rep Kelli Ward: (R) 48%


Missouri:
The state’s Attorney General, Josh Hawley, won the Republican Nomination to challenge Sen. McCaskill. The race turned out to be one of the most hotly contested and closely watched battles in the country, but in the end, McCaskill won re-election to a third term.

Sen. Claire McCaskill: (D) 52%
MO Attorney General Josh Hawley: (R) 45%


Wisconsin:
Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch won the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin for the Senate seat. What was a GOP target early in the year turned out to be a dud, in part because of how strongly Wisconsin turned against the GOP.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin: (D) 53%
Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch: (R) 42%

Nevada:
One of the few pickup opportunities on this map, the Democrats nominated Rep. Dina Titus to take on Sen. Dean Heller. Nevada’s growing Democratic lean and the still-working Reid Machine propelled Titus to a narrow victory.

Rep. Dina Titus: (D) 50%
Sen. Dean Heller: (R) 48%


Pennsylvania:
Bob Casey faced off against Rick Santorum in a rematch. Santorum improved on his 2006 margin.

By 2 points.

Sen. Bob Casey: (D) 57%
Former Sen. Rick Santorum: (R) 42%


West Virginia:
Joe Manchin’s Republican challenger was Rep. David McKinley. The last Dixiecrat easily won re-election. Despite being from a heavy Trump state and opposing many of Trump’s proposals, Manchin remained very personally popular.

Sen. Joe Manchin: (D) 60%
Rep. David McKinley: (R) 38%


Florida:
Sen. Bill Nelson ran against Carlos Beruff, who won the GOP Nomination, for a potential 4th term in the US Senate. Like the 3 times before, he cruised to victory.

Sen. Bill Nelson: (D) 54%
Carlos Beruff: (R) 45%


Ohio:
Governor John Kasich entered the race and locked up the Republican nomination to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown. He began the race with a 15 point lead over Brown, causing the Republicans to rejoice over an easy pickup against a liberal Democrat.

As time passed, and Trump became more unpopular, Kasich slipped in the polls. He was able to distance himself from Trump decently, seeing as how he never endorsed Trump in 2016, but a good chunk of the economic woes of Ohio came from Trump’s tax plan, which Kasich never opposed. The race went from Safe R to Likely R to Lean R to tossup by election night, and when it was all over...

Sen. Sherrod Brown: (D) 48.9%
Gov. John Kasich: (R) 48.1%

Kasich got the Evan Bayh treatment.


Michigan:
Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Gov. Rick Snyder faced off for Senior Senator Stabenow’s Senate Seat. (Try saying that 3 times fast) The race was a complete disaster for Snyder.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow: (D) 58%
Gov. Rick Snyder: (R) 38%


Montana:
Former Governor Marc Racicot was initially the favourite to take down Sen. John Tester in this election. However, like several other races this year, the incumbent Democrat made a comeback to win the election.

Sen. John Tester: (D) 50%
Fmr. Gov. Marc Racicot: (R) 46%


North Dakota:
State Rep. Rick Becker won the Republican nomination to take on Heidi Heitkamp. Like with the case in Montana, Becker started the race out as a favourite, but by election day it was clear that Heitkamp would secure for herself a second term.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp: 51%
State Rep. Rick Becker: 48%

California:
Diane Feinstein retired, allowing President Pro Tempore of the California State Senate Kevin de León to move up in the world.

State Senator Kevin de León: (D) 60%
Carly Fiorina: (R) 40%

Delaware:
Tom Carper retired, and the primary ended up going to Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, who easily won herself a senate seat.

Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long: (D) 71%
State Senator Bryant Richardson: (R) 29%

Maryland:
Ben Cardin chose to retire rather than seek election to a 3rd term. The primary ultimately went to the state's former governor, Martin O'Malley.

Fmr Gov. Martin O'Malley: (D) 59%
Fmr Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino: (R) 39%

New Jersey:
Bob Menendez retired. The election came down to Republican Thomas Kean Jr vs Democrat Frank Pallone. Think of this race as like 2014 Kentucky in reverse. Lots of hype, but nothing to show for it.

US Rep Frank Pallone: (D) 54%
State Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean Jr: (R) 44%

Utah:
Orrin Hatch retired. In a contentious primary, Former Governor and Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman won the Republican nomination and then glided to an easy win.

Fmr Gov./Fmr China Ambassador Jon Huntsman: (R) 79%
Fmr Rep. Jim Matheson: (D) 20%

Class 1 Senate After 2018:

(30% denotes pickup, 60% denotes hold)

D: 50 (+2) (counting King, as Sanders is officially a Democrat now)
R: 50 (-2)

Republicans maintained control of the Senate, but only through Vice President Pence’s tiebreaking vote. 2018 was a disaster for Senate Republicans, who probably would have won at least 7 more races than they did if not for the unpopularity of President Trump and his policies.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats swept out incumbent Republicans across the nation, picking up a total of 33 seats. These included most of the seats the Democrats won in 2012 but later lost, but also in previously “lean Republican” districts in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, and elsewhere. The gerrymandered House backfired, and in 2017 Paul Ryan became Minority Leader to Speaker Steny Hoyer and his 227-member caucus. It was a slim majority, but given Republican gerrymandering, it was a solid accomplishment.

(Yes, I know I changed the identity of the Speaker twice, I am so sorry)

Next time: We head into March, for another few announcements about the 2020 Presidential campaign! After that we'll revisit 2018 for the State-level elections.
(author's note: again, I missed a fair few senate races. If there's any that would have interested you, let me know and I'll add them! Oh and happy thanksgiving!)

[GoTfan]

Who was challenging Bernie in Vermont?

[Blackacre]

State Rep Helen Riehle challenged Sanders in the Vermont Senate race. Sanders actually ran as a Democrat this time instead of a democratic-caucusing Independent (I just edited my above post to reflect this) and just destroyed Riehle.

Sen. Bernie Sanders: (D) 74%
State Rep. Helen Riehle: (R) 20%

[Blackacre]

Thursday, March 14th, 2019

Donald Trump said he wanted to make America great again, but the only thing he’s made great is himself and his cronies. I’ve seen the damage the President’s done over the past two years. Every day he’s in office, the damage he does to our country grows. That’s why I’m running for President, so we can reverse course and put America on the right track once more!

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker became the sixth Democrat to enter the race, and it’s not even Spring yet! The same star power that elevated Booker to his Senate seat continues to serve him, though Warren took the chance to paint him as a tool of the Democratic establishment that messed up 2016 so badly.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Wyden: 14%
Sen. Booker: 13%
Mayor de Blasio: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Gov. Brown: 10%


Saturday, March 16th, 2019

I have done everything in my power as Governor of New York to ensure that as many people as possible are safe. Thanks to the hate crime hotline, more New Yorkers than ever feel like we have their back when they face bigotry and violence. It breaks my heart to see the damage President Trump has done to our nation, economically but especially morally. We need a President who sets the example for the nation, not a President who does everything that a decent person shouldn’t, and I would like the opportunity to become that President!

Not one to be outdone by his rival the mayor, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo entered the race for President. He has made some strides in his state, but the spectre of corruption still hung over him like a bad stench.

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For?
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Wyden: 14%
Sen. Booker: 13%
Mayor de Blasio: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Gov. Brown: 10%
Gov. Cuomo: 8%


Monday, March 19th, 2019


”I’m very sorry Senator Sanders, but since you’re on the show I have to ask, are you running for President again?”

*laughs*”No, I won’t be running for President this year. I simply don’t have the energy that I used to, and I think it’s time for somebody new to become the face of the opposition to big money in politics, to income being concentrate in the top 1%, to major tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires. Chairman Ellison has made that the cause of the Democratic Party, and it’s the cause of many of the candidates we’ve seen so far. I’m very impressed with the direction the Democratic Party has taken.

In an interview with Rachel Maddow, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has made it clear he has no intention of running for President this year. Perhaps age (he would be 79 years old by Inauguration Day) has simply caught up with him. His role in the Democratic Party expanded under the leadership of DNC Chair Keith Ellison, so perhaps he was satisfied with the influence he’s had.

Next time: We finally take a look at the Gubernatorial races of 2018!

[Blackacre]

Author's note: I've been thinking about adding interactive elements to this TL. Those of you who read my 2016 TL years ago know I'm a sucker for that sort of thing. I already plan on having a couple of things be reader-chosen, such as interviews or debate questions, but I want to take it a step further. I want to add pundits to this fictional 2020 election cycle.

The idea is simple: real-world pundits comment on the state of the race, and offer their own insight and prediction, while not actually influencing or knowing what's going to happen. I want to have pundits in this TL to flesh out the environment, but having me write for them won't work because 1. I know how everything will play out and some of that might seep into my punditry or be mistaken for foreshadowing, (or actually BE foreshadowing) and 2. I'd only be able to articulate liberal pundits, and even then I'd lack their voice. I co-opted Rachel Maddow for the purposes of Bernie declining a run, but I won't be using pundits after that save for the occasional debate moderator or anchor.

Would any of you be interested in participating in Hindsight Is 2020 as a pundit? You'd take the role of your character after a certain news event or in response to new polling and offer what you think the pundit's take on these events would be. It would be a great way to get input into the story that's not borne from my mind. If this goes well, ie we get plenty of pundits who contribute semi-frequently, I'll be able to do some really neat things, such as:

• Leave the Veepstakes entirely to the pundits, with no input from me besides maybe a leaked shortlist from the campaign. This is a case where the pundits might actually influence the story, too.
• Enhance coverage of the Democratic and Republican national conventions and post-debate analysis.
• Interviews with candidates to highlight issues I either didn't think of or didn't bring enough attention to.
• We could even do an election night 2020 entirely handled by the pundits, with my only contributions being up-to-date maps and PMing results and times to a designated anchor.

With that in mind, there are a TON of pundits to choose from. Obviously only one person can have a particular pundit, but there's a ton. Obviously cable news hosts like Maddow, Cooper, and Hannity qualify, as do comedy hosts like Trevor Noah, John Oliver, Samantha Bee, and Seth Meyers. Plus writers for NYT/WaPo, Politico, and others, and talk radio hosts like Limbaugh. Even the 538 team is up for grabs, including Nate Silver, Micah Cohen, and Whiz Kid Harry Enten.

This is obviously optional, and my story can go to completion without pundits, but it'd be really awesome to be able to do this. Reply and claim a pundit if you're interested!

(by the way, I'll be using Colbert in my own posts, so he's the only one who's off limits)

[NeverAgain]

sounds awesome. I call god-like creature, Nate Silver.

[BSH]

I know I'm pretty new to these forums (like, really new), but can I take Larry J. Sabato and his Crystal Ball?

[Blackacre]

sounds awesome. I call god-like creature, Nate Silver.

Fantastic!

I know I'm pretty new to these forums (like, really new), but can I take Larry J. Sabato and his Crystal Ball?

You absolutely can! Sabato is all yours!

[LLR]

I'll be Sam Wang (or myself )

[Wells]

I'll be Atlas.

[Blackacre]

Yay for all the claims! I'll use this post to keep track of everything:

Nate Silver - NeverAgain

Larry Sabato (and his crystal ball) - Buck Stops Here

Sam Wang - LLR (you can play yourself too )

Atlas (this should be interesting) - Left

Kyle Kulinski - GoTfan

Wolf Blitzer - rpryor03

Sean Hannity - Dfwlibertylover

Tal Schneider - Parrotguy

John Oliver - jburnx2

Alex Jones - Wintev512

Anderson Cooper (and friends) - Razze

John Avlon - Kingpoleon

Chuck Todd - currently nobody

[GoTfan]

Hmm. Since I'm a sucker for new media, I'll sign on as Kyle Kulinski of Secular Talk Radio.

[rpryor03]

Wolf Blitzer - CNN

[Blackacre]

I'm so happy that you guys are signing onto this!