The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Reaganfan]

He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

I personally don't think 40-50% is that bad for him. For liberals, they're probably disgusted it isn't 15%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today's Gallup approvals:

Approve 42% (-2)
Disapprove 53% (+3)

That's the highest disapproval for Trump in a Gallup poll so far.

[Virginiá]

He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

Yes, and he ran against a candidate who was almost as disliked as him, and trusted even less (somehow). Trump isn't some magical politician whose unpopularity is irrelevant. It just so happens that when you pit two unliked candidates against each other, that attribute seems to cancel out in that race.

[pbrower2a]

Let's not forget that there is "disapproval" and "strong disapproval". 50% disapproval with 15% 'strong disapproval' is very different from 50% disapproval with 45% 'strong disapproval'. The semantics may not be obvious, but people with 'strong disapproval' are more likely to badger elected officials of the party of the President that they despise. Disliking the agenda is one thing; seeing the President as a would-be dictator who will take away guns or the right to contraception is very different. 

The incumbents in the same Party with the President widely and strongly disapproved get into the no-win situation in which they must either run on their records of support for the Party and the President or run from their records -- and lose.

Gerrymandering has well served Republicans when the electorate was polarized and easily defined on demographic realities. Republicans have created multitudes of R+5 or so districts, and in those politicians suitable for R+30 districts can get elected. But create  a situation in which the Democrats can pick off R+5 districts in which the Republican is suited for representing an R+30 district, and Republicans can lose -- big. 

Do I see this yet? I see only portents.

From PPP:

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Republicans own this mess, and they will need miracles to get out of it. The 45/42 Democratic lead on the generic ballot will not be enough to allow them to win the House; at that they would pick off a few seats here and there. But give the Democrats a 54/46 split of the national vote for Congress and the Democrats get a House majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

He always polled badly, even the day he won over 300 electoral votes.

Yes, and he ran against a candidate who was almost as disliked as him, and trusted even less (somehow). Trump isn't some magical politician whose unpopularity is irrelevant. It just so happens that when you pit two unliked candidates against each other, that attribute seems to cancel out in that race.

This. If the Democrats manage nominate a likeable candidate in 2020, Trump is toast. That is, if Trump is even on the ballot in 2020...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

[Wiz in Wis]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

[Virginiá]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

[pbrower2a]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

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Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

[Crumpets]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

As Virginia pointed out, though, it's not just about getting out younger and minority voters (although it certainly doesn't hurt) but driving up the score among already likely to vote people such as older voters and whites. Something that might be achieved if, say, loads of people suddenly lose their healthcare.

[Mr. Morden]

2/4/2017:
Disapproval 53%
Approval 42%

Gallup.

Fun fact... Ronald Reagan had a 42% approval rating, or worse, between July and October 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1982

Nooo no no, see, Trump is different. Normal rules don't apply, all GOP midterms will be like 2002, etc etc.

Irony may be intended.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Many Americans still thought Ronald Reagan 'scary' in 1982. In 2018? We have yet to see how Americans will see President Trump... It could get really ugly. If Democrats can get the younger voters out, then even "R+5" Congressional districts can be vulnerable. 

As Virginia pointed out, though, it's not just about getting out younger and minority voters (although it certainly doesn't hurt) but driving up the score among already likely to vote people such as older voters and whites. Something that might be achieved if, say, loads of people suddenly lose their healthcare.

Well, at the moment, I'm not actually convinced that anything substantial will change on health insurance reform.  Some tort reform changes, or tweaks to how the exchanges work, but beyond that it's not clear anything will change.  Several Republicans in Congress (and perhaps even Trump himself) don't want repeal unless replace goes with it, and it's not obvious to me that any version of "replace" will be able to get enough votes to pass.

[heatcharger]

Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

[Blackacre]

Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

[heatcharger]

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

[anthonyjg]

Today:

Gallup (2/3-2/5): 42/52

IBD/TIPP (1/27-2/2): 42/48

Rassmussen (2/1-2/5): 53/47

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

Even that wouldn't be too bad, +6 less than a month after the inauguration is pretty terrible.

[Blackacre]

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

Do the other pollsters prune the data to make sure their numbers represent the country as a whole? If so then I don't have much reason to doubt them. IDK why Ras uses a LV Screen for approvals...

[Wiz in Wis]

Wonder why Rasmussen is so different from the others. Do we know the methodologies of these pollsters? Worst case, Ras is deliberately inflating Trump's numbers to appease him and his base and get a higher profile. (actually, WORST worst case is Ras is right)

They're using a LV screen, which is pretty ridiculous considering it's February 2017 with no election in sight. Meanwhile, Gallup and IBD are sampling adults. I think his true approval is somewhere in the middle -- slightly underwater, but not a majority disapprove. The "good" news is he still has a lot of room to fall.

True approval is not a thing. His approval being lower with all adults makes sense. Non-voters tend to me more liberal than voters, and presumably, this would affect any GOPer.

[heatcharger]

True approval is not a thing. His approval being lower with all adults makes sense. Non-voters tend to me more liberal than voters, and presumably, this would affect any GOPer.

I get your point, but typically pre-election polls are of RV, then switch to LV a few months before. PPP did an RV poll and got 47/49.

[Tender Branson]

FL - Florida Atlantic University:

34% Approve
66% Disapprove

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2017/florida-favors-sanctuary-cities-sen-nelson-vulnerable-in-2018/index.aspx

Pretty odd poll, because it has no undecideds and conducted among all adults and not among RV.

They had Hillary winning FL by 3 and 6 in their last polls.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, pbrower shouldn't include it in his map because it looks really crappy.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, pbrower shouldn't include it in his map because it looks really crappy.

Florida should not be significantly more hostile to President Trump than the rest of the country. When someone starts showing polls of Florida (because there will be a Senate race and a Gubernatorial race in 2018) we should see polls of Florida more credible than this one.

No undecided? People in transition from approval to disapproval or vice-versa go through 'undecided'.

[Fusionmunster]

Yeah, but this isn't 1982 anymore. The country is more polarized today.

An unpopular president can unite a nation.

[Tender Branson]

NC (High Point University)

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

[Gass3268]

Damn, Trump looking like crap in the Atlantic South.

[Devout Centrist]

Even I feel you adjust these numbers five points in favor of Trump, they're still crap