The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Large Hispanic populations. Even though Mexican-Americans (the bulk of the Hispanic population in the West) has been growing, it has not been going Republican.  Educated minorities may be more adept at catching a white Anglo liar than can educated white Anglo people. Maybe it is harder to build unmerited trust among people with cultural differences.  Just think about this -- Bernie Madoff largely fleeced Jews. The SEC has one of its most active offices in Salt Lake City to catch crooks who play on shared Mormonism of those that they fleece in securities scams.

The Hispanic population is growing rapidly in states that until recently had few -- like Utah, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL at the new polls. So Mr. Drumpf won’t have a honeymoon at all? Sad!

[Mr. Morden]

CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%

[KingSweden]

CBS national poll, conducted Dec. 9-13:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-think-trump-will-bring-change-but-most-also-think-hell-divide-the-nation/

fav/unfav %
Pence 30/25% for +5%
Romney 29/29% for +/-0
Trump 30/39% for -9%

Hence my theory that the GOP will eventually putsch out Trump for Pence, and that when they do they will make it work out okay for them

[Person Man]

New Gallup poll

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 55%

This is as good as it will get for grifter/groper Trump.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/199997/trump-maintains-post-election-bounce-no-new-gains.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

He needs a bounce.

[pbrower2a]

In the unlikely event of a re-do, I see no evidence that Donald Trump would win. The three states shown are clearly blue (atlas Red) states, but there is no way in which Donald Trump could get less than 45% of the vote in Virginia and win nationwide -- either in the popular vote or the electoral vote. Sure, 'favorability' is not an approval rating...

[Person Man]

In the unlikely event of a re-do, I see no evidence that Donald Trump would win. The three states shown are clearly blue (atlas Red) states, but there is no way in which Donald Trump could get less than 45% of the vote in Virginia and win nationwide -- either in the popular vote or the electoral vote. Sure, 'favorability' is not an approval rating...

The way he wins at this rate is that the Democrats run the worst opposition campaign in history or that the establishment Republican lie machine rigs it.

[pbrower2a]

New Gallup poll

Favorable: 42% Unfavorable: 55%

This is as good as it will get for grifter/groper Trump.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/199997/trump-maintains-post-election-bounce-no-new-gains.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

He needs a bounce.

In the musical Damn Yankees  is the song 'Ya Gotta Have Heart', in which one of the members of the awful Washington Senators interjects "We gotta get better 'cause we can't get worse'. That is about where Donald Trump is. It has to get better 'cause it can;t get worse.

Usually elected politicians disappoint people who voted for them by having to make decisions that can't please everyone. Most political decisions in a mature democracy divide on roughly a 53-47 margin until they are accepted as the norm. That's how same-sex marriage went. First it was unthinkable, then it was a fringe issue, then it was truly controversial, and then it had majority support.

If one wins with 53% of the vote one ends up losing 5% to 8% from the percentage of the vote to a somewhat-stable approval level if one is the average elected official. One gets a bigger vote share by actively campaigning for re-election by touting one's legitimate achievements. Of course, if the achievements are suspect and one knows such, one runs away from one's record -- and loses.    But we all have yet to see that.That will not become clear for some time.

Donald Trump will propose much that a near-majority of Americans will find despicable. But it doesn't matter whether 49% of the electorate thinks one just marginally inadequate or thinks one a monster so long as one gets the plurality of the vote.   

It is possible that he will get miracles by associating great sacrifices in living conditions, the environment, and in educational hopes on behalf of some far-better future. I see a far greater likelihood that he will make things worse for all but the top 2% or so of Americans who might not like to hear such slogans as "Workers of the World, Unite!" or "The Bourgeoisie is the Enemy!

Let us all remember what went on in Russia a hundred years ago next year... no economic elite wants that.

Capitalism saved itself with the consumer economy in which the proletariat became a market for the miracles of innovation from radios to readers instead of being nothing more than sweated toilers. Donald Trump has no clue that the miracles of productivity and technology can no longer make people happy just by producing more stuff. As in the 1930s America solved its problem of unemployment by reducing the workweek from 50 or so hours to 40 hours. We may need to see a further reduction in the normal workweek.

[jaichind]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-50-percent-approve-trump-s-transition-handling-so-far-n697396

Poll: 50 Percent Approve of Trump's Transition Handling So Far

[JoshPA]

I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

consider what nancy said about the voters not wanting changes i doubt they be able to take back the house.

[Hindsight was 2020]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-50-percent-approve-trump-s-transition-handling-so-far-n697396

Poll: 50 Percent Approve of Trump's Transition Handling So Far

That's actually awful for a transition

[Virginiá]

I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

This is what I've been thinking. Trump himself really is not that popular and once his meager bounce wears off, Republicans really won't be in a position where it is even remotely safe to push policies such as Medicare/Social Security privatization. The modern day GOP is heavily reliant on older voters and such initiatives would be toxic with them. Unpopular Trump + GOP overreach in 2018 is a recipe for disaster. Maybe they don't lose the Senate and possibly even make a net gain, but the House and oodles of state legislatures/offices could be swept away in a backlash. Gerrymandering and natural packing has made things harder for Democrats and probably given them a lower ceiling in terms of seats, but it has not made the GOP invincible.

They would really be better off playing it safe for the first 2 years so they can get a full term of a unified federal government. Save the crazy stuff for after the midterms.

[Person Man]

I think GOPers are dramatically overestimating their new superpowers. If they miscalculate and push Medicare privatization or Social Security Reform, combined with an already hyper-charged left, there's no reason to think they hold the House in 2018. They could also give a ton of cover to Ruby Red State Dems  in the Senate. 

This is what I've been thinking. Trump himself really is not that popular and once his meager bounce wears off, Republicans really won't be in a position where it is even remotely safe to push policies such as Medicare/Social Security privatization. The modern day GOP is heavily reliant on older voters and such initiatives would be toxic with them. Unpopular Trump + GOP overreach in 2018 is a recipe for disaster. Maybe they don't lose the Senate and possibly even make a net gain, but the House and oodles of state legislatures/offices could be swept away in a backlash. Gerrymandering and natural packing has made things harder for Democrats and probably given them a lower ceiling in terms of seats, but it has not made the GOP invincible.

They would really be better off playing it safe for the first 2 years so they can get a full term of a unified federal government. Save the crazy stuff for after the midterms.

Then if they save the crazy for 19, what will they have to do in 20? ...of course than relying on the Democrats dying on their own.

[Wiz in Wis]

It's exceptionally rare for a party to win seats in a midterm, and it's only recently happened in cases of either national crisis (2002) or when the out party is already in charge of the chambers and... ahem, being dicks about it (1998).

Liberal fatalism aside, the 2006 coalition that flipped the House is still mostly alive and well, it's just been sedate with Obama as president. Trump will polarize for sure, but the House is still most definitely "In Play"

[Klartext89]

I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

[Gass3268]

I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.

[Virginiá]

Then if they save the crazy for 19, what will they have to do in 20? ...of course than relying on the Democrats dying on their own.

Nothing really I guess. 4 years of Trump is likely going to be toxic for Republicans, so if they insist on pushing something as unpopular as privatization, they might as well wait until the last 2 years and not right before midterms where they the incumbent party almost always loses seats. They can use the first 2 years to push a bunch of relatively smaller policies/budget items.

There is no good time for that kind of policy. If they insist on doing it, it's going to cost them in the next election.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.

Source?

[LLR]

I'm sure the polling companies, which did so well this period, will find their prefered D+15 sample to have Trumps Favs underwater over the full 4 years.

The national polling average was actually better this year than in 2012.

Source?

Final RCP average this year: Clinton +3.3
Result: Clinton +2.1
Error: 1.2

Final RCP average in 2012: Obama +0.7
Result: Obama +3.9
Error: 3.2

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
Pence 37/29% for +8%
Ryan 26/27% for -1%
Trump 40/46% for -6%
H. Clinton 32/54% for -22%

[The_Doctor]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
................
Trump 40/46% for -6%

For our blue God-Emperor worshiping avatars: tell me some more about how Trump is going to be the greatest, most fantastic, amazing President ever in our lifetimes who will revolutionize the map.

[Phony Moderate]

NBC/WSJ national poll, conducted Dec. 12-15:

https://www.scribd.com/document/334645321/161300-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-Final

fav/unfav %:
Obama 52/36% for +16%
................
Trump 40/46% for -6%

For our blue God-Emperor worshiping avatars: tell me some more about how Trump is going to be the greatest, most fantastic, amazing President ever in our lifetimes who will revolutionize the map.

Well he won w/ far worse net favorables than he has now tbf.

[The_Doctor]

Those aren't bad numbers for Trump.

Read carefully what I said about him being a revolutionary realigning president, as half of you people are alleging he is.

[The_Doctor]

Those aren't bad numbers for Trump. 45% of the country will always disapprove of any Republican, no matter what.

So no earth shattering God-Emperor changing our country and turning it into a utopia of alt-rightists rounding up the liberals?

OK, then. I'm kind of confused on the blue avatar party line. Someone pass me the fresh talking points from them?

[pikachu]

46% before inauguration is objectively bad. Considering how many things he has going his favor right now, I'll be surprised if his approvals reach this level again by 2018.