MT-SEN 2018: #Populism wins, #ShrillNeoliberalism loses

[KingSweden]

What is it that's so bad about O'Neill, exactly?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

2018 is probably the best opportunity to stop Tester, who is increasingly out of touch with this state and not as popular as Bullock, to say the least.

What makes Tester out of touch with the state in your view?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Tester raised 2m this quarter, has 3m in the bank.

That's... A) money that will go really far in Montana. B ) Probably the fruits of contacts he made as 2014 DSCC chair.

Oh, and we have our first official challenger.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Tester raised 2m this quarter, has 3m in the bank.

That's... A) money that will go really far in Montana. B ) Probably the fruits of contacts he made as 2014 DSCC chair.

Yes, we get it. Basically all the incumbent Democratic Senators have raised a lot already, which isn't exactly surprising. But I see little reason why the GOP should be worried about money. Candidate recruitment and quality, national environment, etc. matter just as much, and when it's all said and done I suspect Republicans will spend just or almost as much as Democrats here.

That's fair, and I'm not making the same prognosis with Tester that I am with Brown, especially since after ND, WV, and IN, I think MT is going to be the next top target for the NRSC. But it's good/encouraging (from my point of view) to see the endangered senators posting good numbers.

[heatcharger]

This race is a tossup with Fox, Lean D with some rando from the perpetually thin Montana GOP bench.

[McGovernForPrez]

With Gianforte likely to win the special election for the House, he could likely be a main contender for Governor in 2020. And with Zinke gone as the senate candidate against Tester in 2018, and no other republican set to take his place, this is likely Tim Fox's best opportunity. Wouldn't be surprised if he goes for it. Tester vs Fox would be a toss up in my opinion.

Since when is Gianforte a likely win in the special election? Dude got BTFO by Bullock, and he's running against a native son in a Trump special election. I don't think Montanans really like Gianforte very much.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

That's fair, and I'm not making the same prognosis with Tester that I am with Brown, especially since after ND, WV, and IN, I think MT is going to be the next top target for the NRSC. But it's good/encouraging (from my point of view) to see the endangered senators posting good numbers.

I don't see any scenario in which MO is less likely to flip than MT, but maybe you just forgot to mention that race.  And I guarantee you Trump, the RSCC and McConnell would rather see Tester lose than Manchin, Heitkamp or Donnelly.

Yeah, good for you, I guess. But my point was more that Tester could spend literally nothing and would still get 44%/45% of the vote. His staunch supporters won't care about any GOP attack ads, and his diehard opponents won't warm to him because of some random "John Tester represents Montana values" ads. We saw this in the presidential race, though I admit it is a bit different in a Senate race in a relatively small state. The race will probably be decided first of all by turnout and - as much as I hate to admit it - Wulfric-type "moderate", "Independent" voters, who I'd rather not pander to for obvious reasons. Their influence is usually exaggerated, but in states like MT and ND they can make a big difference.

Either way, I guess it's nice that the state will get so much political attention in the coming months and years (special election, two hotly contested Senate races, a hotly contested gubernatorial race in 2020, etc.).

Yeah completely forgot MO for a second there. Just off an all-nighter, and darn if it isn't hard to keep track of all these eggshell-vulnerable incumbents :/

[McGovernForPrez]

Since when is Gianforte a likely win in the special election? Dude got BTFO by Bullock, and he's running against a native son in a Trump special election. I don't think Montanans really like Gianforte very much.

No, they don't, and his negatives are certainly higher than Quist's (which also has to do with the fact that he was already attacked relentlessly when he ran for governor), but reading this forum you would think that he is some kind of Todd Akin, lol. His campaign for governor was far from perfect, but Bullock was never going to be beaten, and a 4-point loss was still much better than Cole's, Minter's, Koster's, etc. showing - and these people weren't even running against incumbents. Incumbent Democratic governors in Montana generally don't lose reelection unless the Republicans recruit a top-tier candidate and the state is in extremely bad shape.

You're not wrong, but I feel like the fact that it happened during a Trump win in the state by over 20 points, suggests and extreme weakness. Add in the fact that this is a special election and I think this race is pure tossup.

[MT Treasurer]

You're not wrong, but I feel like the fact that it happened during a Trump win in the state by over 20 points, suggests and extreme weakness. Add in the fact that this is a special election and I think this race is pure tossup.

Oh, I definitely agree that this is a Tossup. But the coattail effect really isn't that strong in a state like Montana, in fact it never has been.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Democrat Jon Tester, a top GOP target, to appear with Mitt Romney
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article147214289.html

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2017-05-17/storage-company-ceo-files-to-run-against-tester-in-2018

On Wednesday, the head of a California-based self-storage company filed to run against U.S. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana in 2018, the second Republican so far with plans to challenge the two-term Democrat.

Troy Downing, 50, filed his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on May 8, but did not planned a public announcement until later this month, he said in an interview with The Associated Press on Wednesday.

More interesting was this part, though:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

If it's not Tim Fox, then who? Corey Stapleton? Matthew Rosendale?

[Heisenberg]

If it's not Tim Fox, then who? Corey Stapleton? Matthew Rosendale?

Rosendale is generally considered to be the strongest of the non-Fox row officers, and some National Republicans have described him as their "backup."

[KingSweden]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

[JMT]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

I think he may wait to see how next week's special election turns out. Some believe Gianforte is using the House seat as a stepping stone to run for Governor. If Gianforte wins the special election, Tim Fox may not want to challenge him in a primary and may decide running for Senate is a better bet.

[KingSweden]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

I think he may wait to see how next week's special election turns out. Some believe Gianforte is using the House seat as a stepping stone to run for Governor. If Gianforte wins the special election, Tim Fox may not want to challenge him in a primary and may decide running for Senate is a better bet.

Not a bad theory.

[Heisenberg]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

I think he may wait to see how next week's special election turns out. Some believe Gianforte is using the House seat as a stepping stone to run for Governor. If Gianforte wins the special election, Tim Fox may not want to challenge him in a primary and may decide running for Senate is a better bet.

Not a bad theory.

I think that's true.

If this all plays out, the House seat becomes open yet again in 2020. I think the frontrunners become Rosendale, Buttrey, and Sales. In a three-way primary I'm not sure who has the advantage. Rosendale would get eastern Montana all to himself, but he and Sales would probably divide the more conservative vote, while Buttrey is the most moderate of the three, generally. Sales, however, is from Gallatin County, where both Daines and GF are from, so that could help him, depending on how influential they are and if they both endorse him.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm still convinced Fox runs for (and wins) Governor in 2020

I think he may wait to see how next week's special election turns out. Some believe Gianforte is using the House seat as a stepping stone to run for Governor. If Gianforte wins the special election, Tim Fox may not want to challenge him in a primary and may decide running for Senate is a better bet.

Not a bad theory.

I think that's true.

If this all plays out, the House seat becomes open yet again in 2020. I think the frontrunners become Rosendale, Buttrey, and Sales. In a three-way primary, I'm not sure who has the advantage. Rosendale would get eastern Montana all to himself, but he and Sales would probably divide the more conservative vote, while Buttrey is the most moderate of the three, generally. Sales, however, is from Gallatin County, where both Daines and GF are from, so that could help him, depending on how influential they are and if they both endorse him.

Deplorable, if true.

[_]

Something tells me the 2020 Governor's race just opened up.

[KingSweden]

Something tells me the 2020 Governor's race just opened up.

Maybe. If Tim Fox doesn't take a run at Tester I'd still regard him as the best bet for '20 (and the best potential Governor out of the GOPers)

[JMT]

Something tells me the 2020 Governor's race just opened up.

Yeah I agree... after the body-slam, I'm not so sure Gianforte will have the 2020 gubernatorial primary to himself. If Gianforte can survive reelection next year, he may decide it's better to stay in a safe house seat than run for governor. Tim Fox may have his opening for governor because of the body-slam.

But, Republicans still need a candidate to challenge Tester. If Republicans don't recruit a strong challenger, Tim Fox may feel compelled to run for Senate. Even if he loses (or even if he wins), Fox could still turn around and run for governor in 2020.

Another candidate that could emerge for senate in 2018 is Corey Stapleton, the Montana Secretary of State. If no other strong candidate gets in, he may see this as his opening. If he lost, he'd still be secretary of state, and if he wins, he is a senator. Stapleton has run for Governor, Senate, and the House before, so clearly he's ambitious. Wouldn't be surprised if he jumped in the race if Tim Fox doesn't.

[Kamala]

MT Treasurer, are there any decent Dems who could potentially run for the row offices?

[MT Treasurer]

MT Treasurer, are there any decent Dems who could potentially run for the row offices?

Well, if one of Rosendale/Fox/Stapleton runs and beats Tester, Bullock will appoint someone to fill the vacancy - and that person would have a very good chance of winning in 2020. Similarly, if one of them runs for governor, Democrats could certainly win an open seat. I think Jesse Laslovich and Mike Cooney (assuming they don't run for governor) would be good options. If not, then someone from the MT legislature - I'd say Casey Schreiner, Dick Barrett, Ed Lieser, Zach Brown and John Fleming would be pretty strong. That being said, beating these Republican incumbents would still be very tough. The only one I could see going down is Elise Arntzen.

[The Other Castro]

Tim Fox is OUT, will not run for Senate.

https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/870734815154376704

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad sign for national Republicans.