2017 British Columbia election

[Boston Bread]

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This was being put on reddit, is it true?

[Babeuf]

Horgan upstaging Weaver right now, if it was intentional, is... not the smartest NDP strategy if they want to govern.

[136or142]

Two points I didn't see mentioned on separate topics about this election:

1.The absentee/early votes won't be counted for a full two weeks.  They are counted at the same time as  the totals are certified which may mean a recount of all the ballots in each riding (I forget if that's the case or not.)

Anyway, in 2013 there were around 160,000 of these ballots.  So, with 87 ridings, that's an average of 2,000 votes per riding. So, whatever you hear about a media organization calling a candidate a winner tonight in a very close riding, just remember what Yogi Bera said.

In the Comox riding for instance, where the NDP candidate has 'won' by nine votes, the Liberal candidate is the former head of the military base in the riding and there are likely a fair number of absentee military votes to come in.  I guess will find out what the soldiers think of their former boss.

In regards to which party these votes normally favor, it's different per riding but it doesn't often result in a change of the winner.  But, it might!  In 1986, Social Credit lead in 2 ridings that they ended up losing.    That was an earlier absentee vote process called a 'Section 80 vote.'  Darlene Marzari of the NDP won in Vancouver-Point Grey after narrowly 'losing' on election night to the nasty Social Credit M.L.A Pat McGeer.  A second New Democrat also won after 'losing' on election night, but, like Rick Perry, I can't remember who.

An interesting note about that is that the election night result was 49 Social Credit and 20 NDP and the final result was 47-22.  Premier Bill Vander Zalm who at that time was still the media darling played a little game with the media as he wrote on a card sealed in an envelope predicting the result but told the media not to open the envelope until the end of the night of the election. His prediction was 47-22.

For those interested, Pat McGeer was a longtime M.L.A who was part of the B.C Liberal caucus from 1972-1975 that joined Social Credit.  He is a brilliant medical researcher who is also highly arrogant and insensitive.  As Advanced Education minister he once said "young people who would like to go to University but can't afford it just have to understand they have to save up for it first."  (I don't dispute there is some truth to that but it's also a 'let them eat cake type comment as obviously it's those who can't afford to go to college who most need the boost from getting a degree.)

He recently returned to the news when he wrote a ridiculous op/ed in favor of keeping whales in captivity.  He wrote 'as much as we like to think we know what whales are thinking, that's nothing but anthropomorphizing them.  Also, when I see them doing their performances, they look happy to me."

He was brilliantly ripped apart by an animal researcher who pointed out that the only value of studying whales in captivity is to find out about other whales in captivity.

[136or142]

In 2005, the NDP received more of the votes not counted on election day than the B.C Liberals but ended up losing two seats they had 'won' on election night.  These were two ridings where the NDP incumbent defeated in 2001 ran again in 2005: Tim Stevenson in a Vancouver riding and Pietro Calendino in a Burnaby riding.

I don't believe the outstanding votes have resulted in a riding change since then, maybe Selina Robinson in Coquitlam-Maillardville in 2013.

[Boston Bread]

I feel it's certain that there will be an early election next time. I mean even if Liberals pick up Comox one vacancy will wipe out that majority.

[136or142]

2.I didn't read all the comments but I didn't see this mentioned here, but this stuck out as much to me as the gains by the Green Party: the growing split between Greater Vancouver which trended heavily towards the NDP, and the Interior which trended heavily towards the B.C Liberals.

It's actually not really accurate to call The Interior 'rural' as there are three fairly large cities in the Interior:  Kelowna (2011 population of  117,312), Kamloops (85,678) and Prince George (71,974)

Their is also a separate city (suburb) of West Kelowna (Christy Clark's riding) which has a population of around 30,000.


In the Lower Mainland
The Richmond ridings were the closest they've been since 1979 when there was just the one Richmond riding.  The NDP vote in Richmond went up by around 10% from the 2013 election.  I don't know if that was just part of the general trend, the sense from Richmond voters that they had been taken for granted by the B.C Liberals, or even that the longer the Richmond Chinese population integrates into Richmond and Canada, the more they start voting like the general population.

Edit: Vosem commented on this, but I don't think Vosem noticed the full extent of the diverging trends.  I don't think the NDP gained in a single Interior/North riding, and they lost two more of these ridings: Columbia River-Revelstoke (maybe partially due to the weakness of the terrible NDP candidate) and Skeena.  The NDP is now down to just five interior ridings including Powell River-Sunshine Coast.  So, Liberals 20 NDP 5.

[Boston Bread]

This might be useful for getting a grasp on the Comox absentee ballots: https://twitter.com/darcyriddell/status/862197362210385920

[136or142]

Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

[Cynthia]

Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

Depends on the sample size.

[136or142]

These were the ridings I predicted incorrectly (so far)
1.Columbia River-Revelstoke
2.Courtney-Comox
3.Cowichan Valley (that was the riding where my riding by riding prediction differed from the prediction I sent into CKNW, I predicted the Greens riding by riding)
4.Fraser-Nicola
5.Maple Ridge-Mission
6.North Vancouver-Lonsdale (how did a 31 year old unknown civil engineer win the NDP nomination in this riding and get elected to the legislature?)
7.Port Moody-Coquitlam, (the NDP MLA - bye-election winner-  and popular former mayor couldn't hold this riding in 2013, but the NDP win it now?)
8.Skeena
9.Surrey-Panorama

I post this in this thread, because the five Greater Vancouver ridings here went to the NDP and the three Interior/North ridings went to the Liberals.  Courtney-Comox was a surprise because the riding redistribution heavily favored the Liberals.

These were the ridings that I considered as 'safe' that ended up (so far) very or reasonably close:
1.Langley
2.North Vancouver-Seymour (I thought the Greens would do much better here)
3.Richmond-Queensborough
4.Richmond-South Center
5.Richmond-Steveston
6.Vancouver-False Creek (I thought the Greens would do much better here)

The NDP did much better in all these ridings than I expected

And, ridings that I thought would be close that ended up not being close or not being as close as I thought
1.Cariboo North
2.Penticton
3.Saanich North and the Islands (expected a closer three way race.  We again see that polling in individual ridings is tough to do.)


If Christy Clark resigned, I'd bet the B.C Liberals would regain much of their popularity in Greater Vancouver and would win a comfortable majority in the subsequent election.

I think these are the possible leadership contenders:
Old guard
1.Mike de Jong
2.Rich Coleman (more likely interim leader)
3.Shirley Bond

In the middle
1.Mary Polak
2.Mike Bernier
3.Steve Thomson

Newly elected
1.Peter Milobar, mayor of Kamloops
2.Jas Johal, former Global B.C Reporter (if elected in Richmond-Queensborough)
3.Tracy Redies, former CEO of Coast Capital Credit Union

Personally I quite like Mike Bernier.  I also think former Conservative M.P (and 'Red Tory') James Moore would be an excellent choice but I don't think he's interested.

[136or142]

Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

Depends on the sample size.

Most B.C ridings have 15,000-20,000 votes.

Is that a large enough sample size?

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if the Liberals do end up winning Courtenay-Comox, they have to pick a speaker, and then it's boom, back to a minority. Unless they convince one of the Greens to be speaker, which I wouldn't rule out because I wouldn't put it past Weaver to stick it to the NDP one more time.

[DL]

In the end the polls were highly accurate most had it 41-40 for the NDP and it ends up behind 41-40 for the Liberals which is well within the margin of error and perfectly acceptable. There was no error like in 2013.

Riding polls on the other hand were a total fiasco. Main Street did four riding polls that were all spectacularly wrong. They had Liberals incumbents ahead by quite a bit in delta north and Surrey Fleetwood and both were trounced. They had the Liberal 35 ahead Fraser-Nicola...they eked outa win by 5 points and they had the Liberal narrowly ahead in Saanich north, he came in a distant third.

Oracle did t do so well either. They had the Liberal leading in Comox-Courtenay by 18% and the NDP won it by 9 votes! They had the Green a distant third in Cowichan Valley, she ended up winning quite handily.

I don't think I've ever seen an election where riding polls were so consistently dead wrong

[lilTommy]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if absentee change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

I think the Greens are in a tough spot now; Policy wise its clear they have much more in common with the NDP. BUT Weaver and I assume even Horgan don't much like each other.  

[Boston Bread]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.
edit: There were more absentees than I thought - 1600 in Comox last time, so they could flip some other ridings, although it's unlikely.

[lilTommy]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.

Thanks, meant absentee... so at best Commox-Courtesy and maybe Maple Ridge - Mission if there were a larger number of absentee. Looks like in 2013 in Comox-Courtney there were about 1600? https://twitter.com/DarcyRiddell

[Hatman 🍁]

I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.

NDP won absentees, yes (despite losing the riding), but also redistribution made the riding more Liberal.

[lilTommy]

Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?

[Hatman 🍁]

Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?

Probably. Except for the 2001 Liberal landslide, the NDP had held all three seats since 1991.

[DL]

I wonder if the unlamented "Lotuslander" will ever grace these pages again. He must feel totally disgraced and humiliated by the results and how totally wrong virtually all of his pontificating turned out to be...

[lilTommy]

If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  

[Njall]

If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  

Also of note from the diversity aspect, there are four MLAs in the new legislature of indigenous background: 2 New Democrats (Carole James and Melanie Mark), 1 Liberal (Ellis Ross), and 1 Green (Adam Olson).

[DL]

If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  

I was trying to count up who was LGBT in the NDP caucus. I could think of Chandra Herbert, Farnsworth, Elmore...and who is the fourth one?

[136or142]

Numerical analysis Part 1
These are based on the numbers from the Elections B.C Website when there were still about 40 total polls outstanding.  Almost final election night totals.  

Vancouver: 230,559
Liberal 79,522, 34.5%
N.DP 117,871, 51.1
Green  30,134, 13.1
Other    3,032

Lower Mainland (Burnaby, Tri Cities, Delta, New Westminster, North/West Vancouver, Richmond)
Total 390,581
Liberal 159,681, 40.9%
N.D.P 163,334, 41.8
Green   57,418, 14.7
Other 10,148

Surrey 175,904
Liberal 73,069 41.5%
N.D.P 80,137 45.6
Green 18,771 10.7
Other   3,927

Fraser Valley (Abbotsford,, Chilliwack, Langley, Maple Ridge)
Total 199,294
Liberal 97,388, 48.9%
N.D.P 66,668, 33.5
Green  29,069,14.6

Southern Interior
(Kootenays, Kamloops, Okanagan, Fraser-Nicola)
Total 296,374
Liberal 147,892,49.9%
N.D.P   89,327,30.1
Green    50,420,17.0
Other      8,735

North (Cariboo, North West, Prince George - including Nechako Lakes, Peace River, Powell River-Sunshine Coast)
Total 141,602
Liberal71,539, 50.5%
N.D.P 49,720 35.1%
Green 14,056   9.9%
Other    6,287

Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Langford, Esquimalt)
Total 181,294
Liberal 43,813, 24.2%
N.D.P 76,498, 42.2
Green  59,020, 32.6
Other    1,963

Northern Vancouver Island
Total 181,736
Liberal 61,114, 33.6%
N.D.P 72,919, 40.1
Green  42,092, 23.2
Other    5,611


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Greater Vancouver (AKA Metro Vancouver) 48 ridings
Total 996,338
Liberal 409,660,41.1%
N.D.P 428,010,43.0
Green 135,392,13.6
Other   23,276

Total North and Interior  25 ridings
Total 437,976
Liberal 219,431, 50.1%
N.D.P 139,047, 31.7
Green   64,476, 14.7
Other   15,022  


Total Vancouver Island 14 ridings
Total 363,030
Liberal 104,927, 28.9%
N.D.P 149,417, 41.2
Green 101,112, 27.9
Other     7,574

[136or142]

Numerical Analysis Part 2
Closest Ridings - less than 5%
1.Courtney-Comox, 37.1% NDP, 37.1 Liberal
2.Maple Ridge Mission, 41.5% NDP, 41.0 Liberal
3.Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, 44.4% Liberal, 43.6 NDP
4.Richmond-Queensborough, 41.7% Liberal, 40.3 NDP
5.Vancouver-False Creek, 42.6% Liberal, 40.0 NDP
6.Vancouver-Fraserview, 47.9% NDP, 43.2 Liberal
7.Fraser-Nicola, 42.4% Liberal, 37.6 NDP

Highest Vote Share
Liberal
1.Peace River South 75.6% (no Green Party candidate)
2.Peace River North 66.3 (no Green Party candidate)
3.Kelowna-Lake Country 60.1
4.Kelowna West, 59.6
5.Cariboo-Chilcotin, 58.8
6.Prince George-Valemount, 58.7
7.West Vancouver-Capilano, 57.7
8.Kelowna-Mission, 57.6 (oddly named riding, obviously not connected to Fraser Valley's Mission)
9.Prince George-Mackenzie, 57.3
10.Vancouver-Quilchena, 56.8
11.Kamploops-South Thompson, 56.6
12.Kootenay East, 56.6
13.Shuswap, 56.1
14.Nechako Lakes, 54.5 (Liberals usually do better here, I assume the nearby Site C Dam may have reduced their vote)
15.Langley East, 53.9 (First Fraser Valley riding!)
16.Penticton, 53.6
17.Chilliwack-Kent, 53.5
18.Skeena, 53.2 (but, no Green Party candidate) (Gain from NDP)
19.Richmond North Centre, 53.0
20.Abbotsford South, 52.8

N.D.P
1.Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, 64.9%
2.Vancouver-West End, 61.3
3.Vancouver-Kingsway, 60.1
4.Kootenay West, 59.7
5.Vancouver-Hastings, 59.4
6.Surrey-Whalley, 58.4
7.Surrey-Green Timbers, 58.2
8.North Coast, 57.5
9.Surrey-Newton, 57.4
10.Port Coquitlam, 55.5
11.Vancouver-Point Grey, 55.1
12.Vancouver-Kensington, 54.9
13.Burnbaby-Edmonds, 53.7
14.Vancouver-Fairview, 53.6
15.Surrey-Fleetwood, 53.4 (Gain from Liberal)
16.Victoria-Swan Lake, 53.4
17.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 52.9
18.Langford-Juan de Fuca, 52.8
19.New Westminster, 51.6
20.Stikine, 51.2 (no Green Party candidate)

Green
1.Oak Bay-Gordon Head 51.9%
2.Saanich North and the Islands 41.7
3.Cowichan Valley, 37.2
4.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 30.3
5.Victoria-Swan Lake, 29.9
6.West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, 28.7
7.Nelson-Creston, 27.9
8.Parksville-Qualicum 25.6
9.New Westminster, 25.4
10.Saanich South, 25.2
11.Esquimalt-Metchosin, 24.8
12.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, 24.1
13.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, 23.7
14.Vernon-Monashee, 21.4
15.Kamloops-South Thompson, 20.5
16.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, 20.3
17.Kamloops-North Thompson, 20.2
18.Nanaimo, 19.7
19.West Vancouver-Capilano, 19.2
20.Kelowna-Lake Country, 19.2 (no Green Party candidate  )