2017 British Columbia election

[Hatman 🍁]

I notice something interesting in the crosstabs of the Ipsos poll - they asked people who they voted for in the 2013 election:

54% say they voted Liberal (Libs actually took 44% in 2013)
37% say they voted NDP (NDP actually took 40% in 2013)
8% say they voted Green (same as 2013)
no numbers on reported past vote for BC Conservatives/Other.

So contrary to the theory that this online panel might over-represent New Democrats - if we look at reported past vote - the sample is actually wayyy more Liberal than it ought to be. I'm not questioning the overall findings, just pointing this out for people to interpret as they wish

Well, I remember how their panel over-represented the PCs in our last provincial election. So, take their polls with a grain of salt.

[DL]

The latest poll from Forum is pretty whacky

BC NDP  - 37%
Bc Liberals - 29%
BC Greens - 24%
BC Cons - 7% (says something about how incompetent and unprofessional Forum is that they would still be prompting for a party that is only running 10 candidates)
Other - 3%

Its very weird that Ipsos has the Greens at 14% and Forum at 24% - that is a huge gap even by BC polling standards.

From a seat point of view its actually not as good as it seems for the Greens. The only place where they stand to actually win any seats is on Vancouver Island and there the NDP leads with 39% with the Greens and Liberals at 28% and 27% respectively. A vote split like that would likely mean the Greens adding Saanich North and possibly nothing else!

Forum's seat projection model is also kinda bizarre - they say this popular vote split would mean NDP 47 seats, BC Libs 34 seats, Greens 4 seats and 2 "other".   where pray tell is there is a single solitary "Other" candidate with any chance at all of winning in BC??? Also, if (and very big IF), the NDP actually beat the Liberals by a 37-29 margin, I suspect the Liberals would do far worse than 34 seats. In 2013 the Libs took 44% of the popular vote. If that dropped to 29% that would mean a 15 point drop...that would mean A LOT of losses in terms of seats.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2717/bc-final-week/

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest poll from Forum is pretty whacky

BC NDP  - 37%
Bc Liberals - 29%
BC Greens - 24%
BC Cons - 7% (says something about how incompetent and unprofessional Forum is that they would still be prompting for a party that is only running 10 candidates)
Other - 3%

Its very weird that Ipsos has the Greens at 14% and Forum at 24% - that is a huge gap even by BC polling standards.

From a seat point of view its actually not as good as it seems for the Greens. The only place where they stand to actually win any seats is on Vancouver Island and there the NDP leads with 39% with the Greens and Liberals at 28% and 27% respectively. A vote split like that would likely mean the Greens adding Saanich North and possibly nothing else!

Forum's seat projection model is also kinda bizarre - they say this popular vote split would mean NDP 47 seats, BC Libs 34 seats, Greens 4 seats and 2 "other".   where pray tell is there is a single solitary "Other" candidate with any chance at all of winning in BC??? Also, if (and very big IF), the NDP actually beat the Liberals by a 37-29 margin, I suspect the Liberals would do far worse than 34 seats. In 2013 the Libs took 44% of the popular vote. If that dropped to 29% that would mean a 15 point drop...that would mean A LOT of losses in terms of seats.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2717/bc-final-week/

And if you look at their regional crosstabs, they only polled 78 people in the "Interior North" which I take to be everything outside the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, as those are the other 2 groups.  Now I don't know if they weighted by region or not, but either way they have oversampled the lower mainland and Vancouver Island which would boost the NDP numbers province wide, or if they did weight by region, they are weighting up this dubious sample of 78 people, of which the NDP has a lead of 6 points, but in reality is probably tied or trailing.

[DL]

I've noticed that in each Forum poll they have had a strangely small interior sub-sample. I don't understand why they would do that since its not as if there is anything particularly difficult about IVR polling interior BC!

Still even if we ignore the "interior issue"...if the NDP actually carried the Lower Mainland by 6 points and carried Vancouver Island by 11 points - it would be a blow-out in terms of seats in those regions.

[DL]

PS: Some people (who shall remain nameless), have suggested that IVR polls systematically overestimate NDP support. I find no evidence of that. In fact in the last Ontario election the reverse happened. The final Ekos poll had the NDP at 19% and the final Forum had them at 20%...in fact they got 24%!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls

[Hatman 🍁]

For IVR, it depends on if cell sample is included, I think. No cell sample is going to unrepresented NDP support.

Of course, I don't know what our dear friend Lo'Ler is rambling on about these days, I have him on ignore.

[DL]

Of course, I don't know what our dear friend Lo'Ler is rambling on about these days, I have him on ignore.

That's probably good for your mental health :-)

[136or142]

Whether good news or bad news, Forum Polls are always junk polls.  Best to ignore them.

[RogueBeaver]

Smyth: Grits are solid in bellwether Kamloops.

Mainstreet: 42% (-2), 37% (+3), 21% (-1).

[DL]

Mainstreet: 42% (-2), 37% (+3), 21% (-1).

This feels about right...I think the previous Mainstreet poll that gave the NDP a 10 point lead was likely an outlier and this marks a reversion to the mean. A few things stand out to me in this poll though:

Regionally, looks like BC is moving towards a serious urban-rural split with the NDP doing really well in the Lower Mainland, consolidating their lead on Vancouver Island (with a 10 point lead over the Greens, the Greens will likely be stuck with just 1 or 2 seats), but getting crushed in the interior.

The NDP vote is now the most solid, while Greens vote is softening with about 40% of Greens saying they could still change their minds...If the Green vote drops, the NDP gets 3.5 votes for everyone 1 that goes to the Liberals.

A lot can and likely will happen in the coming week and i expect an exceedingly close election

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Not a poll on voting intentions, but Insights west asked voters questions about whether the three leaders held certain qualities as well as asking whether voters approved of the job the BC government is doing in certain areas.

http://www.insightswest.com/news/horgan-connecting-with-british-columbians-but-clark-ahead-on-economy/

[RogueBeaver]

Weaver not a Horgan fan.

[Lotuslander]

Weaver says he'd prefer working with Clark in a minority situation.

I saw the 6 pm Global BC newscast and that is not what I inferred from his statements. In any event, Weaver's characterization of Horgan was just brutal:

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Edited to Add: Headline on story is also obviously wrong. Suspect it will be modified. Weaver also stated "I'm not going to pick one" in terms of potential minority gov't support.

Further Edit: Headline now changed to "B.C. Election: Andrew Weaver says ‘neither Liberals nor NDP can be trusted with majority government’.

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[Hatman 🍁]

Weaver says he'd prefer working with Clark in a minority situation.

Well, the NDP can only win when there's a vote split on the right

[RogueBeaver]

Fixed it. But I suspect there won't be a minority.

[the506]

Like I said on twitter - this is a 140 character world and the damage may already be done.

[DL]

Weaver could have devoted his time to only discussing policies and issues and made it clear that in a hypothetical minority situation he would cooperate with whatever party was closest to him on the issues, instead he recited BC Liberal talking points about John Horgan's personality. That's what is known as "going off message"

[RogueBeaver]

Angus Reid: 41/40/15.

[DL]

Its interesting that the latest online surveys by Angus Reid and Ipsos have the Greens at a very disappointing 14-15%...while the latest IVR polls by Forum and Mainstreet have them in the low 20s... Usually if anything online polls tend to overestimate support for 3rd parties compared to IVR.

Any theory as to what is going on here?

[RogueBeaver]

Innovative Research likes Clark's chances.

[Lotuslander]

Innovative Research likes Clark's chances.

I've been waiting for Innovative Research to produce a CATI poll - gold standard in BC polling. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

They also produced opt-in online panel methodology favouring Libs but meh.

[DL]

Apparently Innovative is not so innovative if they are prompting for the non-existent BC Conservatives!

[Lotuslander]

Firstly, Innovative Research is a reputable polling firm (around for ~20 years) unlike other pollsters out there. As for their CATI voting intention question based upon data tables? Unprompted as follows:

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As for the 6.2% BC Con vote (unprompted), BC Lib 2013 campaign internals (CATI daily tracking polls) found that:

1. 1/3 had brand confusion with fed gov't;
2. 1/3 parked vote with BC Cons until realized that would result in NDP win and then vote BC Lib at end of day;
3. 1/3 actual BC Con voters;

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Justason Market Intelligence May 4th

BC Liberals 39% (+1)
NDP 34% (-3)
Green 23% (+2)
Other 4% (-)

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5183

[DC Al Fine]

I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?