2017 British Columbia election

[Lotuslander]

From long time Global BC news political analyst Keith Baldrey: [snippets]

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http://globalnews.ca/news/3220692/bc-ndps-john-horgan-charts-a-new-green-path/

Essentially, the BC NDP has now written off resource-industry dependent interior BC ridings and likely 3 incumbent BC NDP seats - Skeena, Stikine, and Columbia River-Revelstoke will be lost in 2017. Even the resource dependent riding of North Island on Van Isle may be lost, as another example.

Seems that the BC NDP is shrinking its potential voter pool, as a result, focusing on a matter that will likely only resonate in some inner Van City proper ridings and southern Van Isle ridings. Also seems that the NDP sees its political enemy as the BC Greens and is leaving the BC Liberals free reign everywhere else.

Problem with that strategy is that not only does it not lead to government but if voters have a real Green Party and a faux Green Party to select from, they typically vote for the real thing. Witness the 2015 CA federal election with the Mulcair-led NDP positioning themselves as "Liberals" at the outset of the campaign with the electorate deciding to actually vote for the real thing on e-day.

BTW, the first thing that came to mind with the BC NDP's new "Green Shift" was federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion and his then "Green Shift" during the 2008 federal election campaign. Didn't work out too well at the end of the proverbial day.

[Lotuslander]

Just a follow-up to my post yesterday. Today, BC NDP leader John Horgan held a press conference on the BC NDP's climate change policies. Here is where the matter certainly gets interesting...

1 1/2 hours before Horgan's press conference, the BC Liberals leaked a strategic internal BC NDP document referencing the BC NDP's climate change policies entitled "Communications Planning -
DRAFT NOT FOR CIRCULATION".

Here's the document:

https://www.scribd.com/document/338245199/NDP-Communications-Plan-DRAFT#fullscreen&from_embed

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-undercut-ndps-climate-plan-with-leaked-copy

Tonight on Global BC's 6 pm newscast, long-time political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that it appears a "mole is present in the highest echelons of BC NDP leaking documents to BC Liberals, which must be disconcerting to BC NDP leader Horgan".

Tonight, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer references same in his column [snippet]:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-john-horgan-spins-leak-on-carbon-tax-hike-to-pump-up-ndp-plan

Never a dull moment in BC politics.

[Lotuslander]

Epilogue.

Vancouver Sun legislative reporter Rob Shaw noted in his news article today:

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And Rob Shaw just posted on Twitter:

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Begs the question... what's the motivation behind the obvious internal BC NDP "mole"?! And what more damage can he do? Wouldn't be surprised if the BC NDP is conducting an internal witch hunt right now.

[Lotuslander]

More on this "Deep Throat" within the upper echelon BC NDP ranks tonight [snippet]:

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https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-doesnt-need-a-secret-agent-in-its-ranks/article33902362/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&service=mobile

Long-time Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also stated last night on the 6 pm newscast that, in his ~3-decade role, he has never seen anything like this before.

Something akin to "Deep Throat" during the 1970's Nixon era... except reversed.

[DL]

In the lead up to the 2013 election the BC Liberals were the ones leaking like a sieve with daily brown Manila enevelopes being delivered to journalists with inside dirt on Charity Clark's corruption (remember "quick wins") and all the endless conspiracies to dump her as leader that were going on literally right up to Election Day. Remember that Christy Clark became leader of her party despite no caucus support whatsoever and many people hated her for it within her own party and wanted to sabotage her. It's disconcerting for parties to know that people inside the tent are leaking stuff, but it happens and almost never actually influences the results of the following election...unless something is leaked that leads to criminal charges

I wonder if Putin is behind these latest leaks. If he d'avoir Donald Trump, why wouldn't he also d'avoir Christy Clark

[Lotuslander]

That's a bit over the top DL. But you are correct on the "Quick Wins" matter involving the BC Libs. Received considerable media attention commencing back in February, 2013 - 3 months before the May, 2013 BC election - moving forward.

It involved the BC NDP leaking a document from 13 months earlier dated January, 2012. BTW here's one of the first media pieces by CBC dated February 27, 2013:

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/leaked-documents-reveal-liberals-plan-to-win-ethnic-vote-1.1325543

I will further clarify what Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated about the recent BC NDP "leaks" - To paraphrase: "In my almost 30 years I have never seen an opposition party's internal strategic documents leaked to the gov't party".

Remember, election campaigns are akin to military ops. And when a political party (the BC Libs in this instance) is in receipt of "real time" internal strategic BC NDP documents... it's akin to delivering your opponents strategy to the other side on a military battlefield. The general in receipt of same will make appropriate moves to render his opponent  impotent in order to go in for the proverbial kill.

To date, these "real time" internal BC NDP strategic documents (with all detailed briefing notes) include:

1. BC NDP's climate strategy;
2. BC NDP's plan to ban grizzly bear hunt;
3. BC NDP provincial council meeting notes;

Who knows what else has been passed along but not disclosed by BC Libs?

Undoubtedly a "mole" or "Deep Throat" exists within the highest echelon of the BC NDP.

As an aside, about 10 months ago, a major internal political document of the USW was leaked to the BC media regarding concerns about the BC NDP's apparent anti-resource development policies, etc. Remember that the USW membership in interior BC mines (metallurgical coal/ base metal) typically vote heavily BC Liberal during elections. Here is the leaked memo:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo#fullscreen&from_embed

The contents therein were very revealing. OTOH, western Canadian USW director Steve Hunt is still publicly a major BC NDP leader Horgan backer.

Now we are seeing the BC NDP morphing into a quasi-"Green Party". Also seems that the BC NDP is seeing the BC Green Party as its actual political enemy - not the BC Libs. Bizarre strategy BTW.

With the foregoing background... just speculation and conjecture on my part... but my hunch is that the "Deep Throat" within the BC NDP may well be a pro-resource, private sector union individual extremely unhappy with Horgan's plan to morph the BC NDP into another BC Green Party.

My 2 cents.

[Lotuslander]

Another matter involving BC NDP leader John Horgan and his name recognition. Last Thursday, the major Metro Vancouver news/talk show/radio station CKNW went to the streets of downtown Vancouver in order to ascertain if they know who John Horgan even is. Their findings:

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http://www.cknw.com/2017/02/02/who-is-this-man-ndp-leader-john-horgan-on-the-electoral-challenge-ahead/

That's just 7% name recognition.

Moreover, BC NDP leader has not yet been "defined" to the BC electorate.

A business group called "Say Anything John" has now swamped BC TV media with their TV ad, which I mentioned in this thread earlier on. Said TV ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO39hzefUZo

Take this as a grain of salt if ya wish... but I have asked, what I would call non-political swing voters, their impression of the individual in this TV ad - John Horgan (watching in my presence). Their overall response? To paraphrase... "this guy is a liar like Trump". Not good.

Unlike the previous 3 BC elections (2005/2009/2013), the BC NDP appears lackadaisical & drifting in this electoral cycle. Not a good omen methinks.

[Lotuslander]

The venerable BC Conservative Party. What gives?

Prior to the 2013 election, they certainly had a political opening, with the BC Liberals in disarray, and ran their highest number of candidates since 1960 ... 56/85 ridings. Then BC Con leader John Cummins was even in the 2013 televised leadership debate.

BTW, prior to the 2013 BC election, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that "most people are tuning out the BC Liberals". A then obvious "change election" was in the making.

In the 2013 BC election, the BC Cons obtained 4.8% popular vote share - their highest since the 1979 BC election at 5.1%. Moreover, during the 2013 BC election, the BC Con vote split undoubtedly cost the BC Liberals 2 seats - Skeena (NW BC) and Burnaby-Lougheed (Metro Vancouver). It's much easier to parse the BC Con vote than the BC Green vote BTW.

So what has happened to the BC Conservative Party? They receive absolutely no media attention. The only news article that I can find (previously posted) was an obscure article in a Kelowna newspaper regarding an investigation into its party president.

To re-iterate, the BC Conservatives are leaderless, insolvent, and involved in in-fighting. If they run candidates in 2017, they will likely achieve only ~1% popular vote share akin to the 7 BC elections between 1983 - 2009.

Undoubtedly they will not be appearing at the 2017 televised leadership debate. Even Global BC TV political analyst has stated that they are now "fringe".

Moreover, a recent petition on Change.org by BC Conservative Party members requests the following, with detailed reasons: "Demand for the resignation of the President of the BC Conservative Party." It was also signed by former BC Con leadership contender Konrad Pimiskern:

https://www.change.org/p/members-of-the-bc-conservative-party-demand-the-resignation-of-the-current-president-of-the-board

In the aftermath of the 2013 BC election and until recently at least 3 former 2013 BC Con candidates have joined and are now supporting the BC Liberals:

1. Peace River South (NW BC) Kurt Peats (former RCMP officer);
2. Kamloops-South Thompson (central BC) Peter Sharp (former RCMP officer);
3. Burnaby North (Metro Vancouver) Wayne Marklund (businessman);

Moving "toward" the other end of the political spectrum, more specifically federal Liberal, summer Olympic silver medalist Dave Calder served on the BC NDP riding executive of Saanich South (a Greater Victoria riding on Vancouver Isle). Calder was also a major supporter of incumbent BC NDP MLA during the previous 2013 BC election.

Interestingly enough, Dave Calder let his BC NDP membership lapse in 2014 and several months ago joined the BC Liberals. More surprisingly, Calder is now the BC Liberal candidate in Saanich South. The BC Greens have also nominated a well-known local teacher in the riding. As an interesting aside, all 3 candidates know each other personally.

Prior to 2013, during the 2005 and 2009 elections, the BC NDP narrowly won both races in Saanich South over the BC Libs by less than a 2% margin. During 2013, both the BC Libs and BC Greens ran fence-posts with hair in Saanich South. 2013 results with 2009 changes in brackets:

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.54%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.59%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

That said, incumbent Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham is popular in the riding and I have previously placed this riding in the BC NDP win column for 2017. However, Greater Victoria is the most politically volatile area in BC and it is still too early to ascertain any potential significant political changes/trends at this date.

[Lotuslander]

Yesterday, BC's 3 foremost media political analysts:

1. Vancouver Sun's Vaughn Palmer
2. Global BC TV's Keith Baldrey
3. Province newspaper's Mike Smyth

.... were on stage, in front of a large crowd, at the Urban Development Institute (UDI) conference candidly discussing/answering questions about the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election.

Two major points stood out to me.

1. Global BC's Keith Baldrey stated that if next Tuesday's budget has a 1% PST sales tax cut - then it would be a political "game changer- "central issue of campaign".

As an aside, a 1% PST cut equates to a ~$900 million in annual revenue budget loss. To put the foregoing into further context, BC currently has a $2 billion+ annual operating budget surplus (5th consecutive in a row) with among the lowest provincial personal/corporate taxation rates in Canada. Furthermore, BC also is the only province in Canada with an "AAA" credit rating with Moody's, S & P, Fitch & DBRS. Problem is that those $2 billion/annual surpluses are not sustainable moving forward.

2. Global BC's Keith Baldrey also stated that one BC NDP MLA had told him that, if the foregoing is the case, the BC NDP would then "have to go back to square 1" in terms of their own platform. The BC NDP's platform includes numerous annual program spending commitments as well as a new annual spending commitment known as $10/day child daycare - an annual program that would cots the BC treasury between $1.5 - $2 billion/annum every year moving forward. Interesting to note that the BC NDP, prior to the 2013 BC election, stated that such a program "is too expensive" & "just not affordable".

Obviously, the BC NDP platform would then place BC into major annual operating deficit territory, which, historically, is anathema to the centrist BC electorate.

3. Province newspaper columnist Mike Smyth also stated that BC Green party leader Andrew Weaver is a very astute political leader and will do very well in the always important TV leadership debate. Moreover, he also stated that Weaver will have a "political field day" at the TV leader's debate with BC NDP leader Horgan on numerous issues, inclusive of political party financing.

As a separate aside, both pre-writ as well as during the writ period, it became increasingly apparent to me that the 2013 BC election had very similar dynamics/narratives as the 1983 BC election. And that it was!

As for the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election, in terms of the pre-writ period, it is also now becoming increasingly apparent to me that it also has very similar dynamics/narratives akin to the 1969 BC election. Guess that we will have to wait and see.

[Lotuslander]

New opinion poll by Mainstreet Research this morn. Caveat, it's an IVR/robo poll, which are notoriously off-target in BC as witnessed by the 2013 BC election. Top-line numbers (with change from Mainstreet's September, 2016 poll in brackets):

BC Lib: 37% (+4%)
BC NDP: 37% (-1%)
BC Green: 17% (+1%)
BC Con: 10% (-4%)

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/deadlock-uncertainty-bc-election-nears/

Also an unusually high 31% undecided rate.

PS. I have been in contact with Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, and he confirmed that they will release another CATI poll in the coming weeks. FWIW, in BC, CATI polling traditionally is the only methodology that produces accurate results.

[DL]

Actually, IVR polls are quite accurate in BC...Forum's final poll on the eve of the 2013 BC election was almost dead-on...But almost all of the public domain polling in BC in the 2013 was online and not phone based at all.

Its clearly going to be a tossup in Bc in May, but what has to be encouraging for the BC NDP is that this poll has the Greens at 17% and in the past four elections in BC, the Greens ALWAYS poll in the mid-teens before the campaign begins and then drop to single digits by election day. According to this poll the Green vote is very very soft (only 32% are certain they will vote that way) and when Green voters are asked about who their second choice is - it is NDP over BC Liberals by a 5 to 1 margin.

I suppose BC Liberal supporters might take some solace from how this poll has the moribund BC Conservatives at 10%...but its interesting that when BC Conservatives are asked who their second choice is - they go NDP over Liberal 37 to 30. We saw a similar phenomenon in the last ontario election where Ontario PC voters hated Kathleen Wynne so much that they overwhelmingly said they would support the Ontario NDP before they would vote for the Ontario Liberals. I suspect that those BC Conservative supporters really dislike ardent federal Liberal Christy Clark and that most of them simply wont vote or will vote for various small "c" conservative independents

[136or142]

Actually, IVR polls are quite accurate in BC...Forum's final poll on the eve of the 2013 BC election was almost dead-on...But almost all of the public domain polling in BC in the 2013 was online and not phone based at all.

Its clearly going to be a tossup in Bc in May, but what has to be encouraging for the BC NDP is that this poll has the Greens at 17% and in the past four elections in BC, the Greens ALWAYS poll in the mid-teens before the campaign begins and then drop to single digits by election day. According to this poll the Green vote is very very soft (only 32% are certain they will vote that way) and when Green voters are asked about who their second choice is - it is NDP over BC Liberals by a 5 to 1 margin.

I suppose BC Liberal supporters might take some solace from how this poll has the moribund BC Conservatives at 10%...but its interesting that when BC Conservatives are asked who their second choice is - they go NDP over Liberal 37 to 30. We saw a similar phenomenon in the last ontario election where Ontario PC voters hated Kathleen Wynne so much that they overwhelmingly said they would support the Ontario NDP before they would vote for the Ontario Liberals. I suspect that those BC Conservative supporters really dislike ardent federal Liberal Christy Clark and that most of them simply wont vote or will vote for various small "c" conservative independents

The B.C Conservative Party also seemed to take more votes from the NDP in 2013.  This isn't necessary a surprise as the B.C Conservatives and the B.C NDP are both considered populist parties in many parts of British Columbia (especially in Northern Vancouver Island and the Interior.)

I thought Stephen Harper went back and forth on whether he was a conventional economic conservative or whether he was an economic populist, but the B.C Conservative Party leader in that election, John Cummins, was known in B.C as an economic populist (though in his very election campaign effort, for some reason he chose to run as more of a conventional economic conservative.)

Edited to add:
By an economics populist I am referring to the type of Conservatives here in Richmond at the municipal level. The B.C Conservative candidate in one of the Richmond ridings in 2013 was Carol Day a popular city councillor.  Economic conservatives on our city council like former B.C Liberal MLA Ken Johnson tend to be in favor of every property development proposal, whereas economic populists like Carol Day tend to be more suspicious of them.  Carol Day, like old line conservatives are also in favor of efficient delivery of quality public services, as opposed to believing that essentially all government spending is 'wasteful.'

So, to the degree that those represent the views of 2013 B.C Conservative voters, it's not necessarily a surprise that those voters would look more favorably to the NDP than to the B.C Liberals.

[Lotuslander]

Gotta disagree. Basically speaking, the 2013 BC election was the first whereby both opt-in online panel and IVR/robo polls were utilized. Long-time BC pollster Mustel (CATI pollser) bowed out in January, 2013 - well over four months before the May, 2013 BC election. It's too bad as they nailed every BC election for the previous ~25 year period.

As for IVR polls in the 2013 BC election ... they also had major misses... yes Forum Research had a 2% BC NDP lead in their final poll leading into the weekend before e-day. Still... in BC terms, that's a 6% reversal compared to actual results. As a matter of fact, many, over the years, refer to Forum Research as the "McDonald's" of the CA polling industry.

Even worse, Ekos (also IVR/robo pollster) was last in the field two days before the 2013 BC election. Ekos' final result had a 6% BC NDP winning spread - a 10% reversal compared to the actual election result. Just terrible polling junk akin to the opt-in online panel pollsters.

Now back to Mainstreet Research, which released  it's IVR/robo BC poll today. It's their second ever poll in BC - their initial opinion poll was back on September 8, 2016 with the following result:

BC NDP: 38%
BC Liberal: 33%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 14%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-lead-liberals-38-to-33/

Interestingly enough, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Global BC TV political reporter Keith Baldrey, and Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth all reported that BC Liberal insiders/strategists informed them that they were happy with that Mainstreet Research public opinion poll showing a 5% BC NDP lead. For example:

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One would think that's kinda odd. In that vein, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also writes a weekly political column that some local Metro Vancouver newspapers publish. Just prior to the September, 2016 Mainstreet Research IVR poll showing a BC NDP 5% lead, Keith Baldrey wrote that the BC Liberals conduct internal CATI riding tracking polls on incumbent ridings as well as "winnable" ridings. Baldrey further reported that the BC Liberal's internal CATI riding polls have "most incumbents leading with healthy margins". Baldrey also stated that the BC Liberals don't conduct provincial tracking polls outside the writ period.

Again, this is the same BC Liberal internal pollster that, on the Friday (four days before May, 2013 e-day) had already called with certainty 48 ridings (actually won 49) for the BC Liberals and their final provincial tracking numbers were " bang-on" compared to the actual results. That's the power of expensive/accurate CATI polling. BTW, in an earlier post herein, I posted in detail those internal BC Liberal numbers from the 2013 BC election.

Again, Nanos federally is also a CATI pollster and their final numbers have also been virtually bang-on over the past 5 CA federal elections cycles. Hell, in the 2011 and 2015 CA fed elections, Nanos even almost nailed the exact BC federal voting intentions with their small, ~130 BC sub-sample. High quality stuff.

As for the BC Conservative vote, they are currently leaderless, have no candidates, are insolvent, and involved with in-fighting. Irrespective of the foregoing, the BC Liberal internal pollster had some interesting findings during the 2013 BC election campaign. At the beginning of the writ period, the BC Cons had 15% in their internals. His analysis:

1. 1/3 (5%) had brand confusion with federal politics ie. fed Con voters/BC Lib voters;
2. 1/3 (5%) were unhappy with the BC Libs and parked their votes with the BC Cons until near the end of the campaign when they held their nose and voted BC Liberal fearing a BC NDP win;
3. 1/3 (5%) were actual BC Con voters;

Now back again to the September 8, 2016 Mainstreet Research opinion poll (IVR/robo poll). Interestingly enough, Innovative Research a CATI pollster (reliable), was in the field just ~3 weeks before Mainstreet Research. During that interval, nothing material occurred on the BC provincial political scene. Yet... Mainstreet Research IVR polling results and Innovative Research's CATI polling results were COMPLETELY different. IR's CATI numbers:

BC Liberal: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/160819_BCTM1608_Release_Deck_0.pdf

Have said it once and will say it again. Both opt-in online polling as well as IVR/robo polling is just cheap polling junk in BC. Period. Caveat emptor. CATI has always been and continues to be the gold standard of BC political polling as historical BC polling data corroborates.

My 2 cents.

PS.  These polls are just political snapshots in time. During the final 2 weeks of the writ period (just after televised leadership debate) is where major movement will occur in the campaign.

[Poirot]

Too close to call has a simulator for the result of the BC election.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/bc-simulator-2017.html

With the mainstreet poll numbers (37% - 37% - 17%), it gives the BCLib 43 seats, BCNDP 41, Green 3.

[Lotuslander]

Since the Mainstreet Research (IVR or robo) opinion poll from one week ago (in the field February 18 - 19) showing a tie between the BC Libs and BC NDP... Mainstreet Research has come out tonight with another IVR poll (in the field exactly one week later on February 25 - 26) with these decided results:

BC NDP: 39.5%
BC Lib: 33%
BC Green: 14.5%
BC Con: 13.2%

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ndp-holds-slight-b-c-election-poll-lead-but-msp-child-care-issues-could-swing-voters

IOW, within the course of a week a political tie has gone to a 6.5% BC NDP lead. IMHO, opinion polls don't bounce around like that in the course of one week - esp. when nothing materially occurred on the BC political scene - except for an apparently highly lauded new BC budget, which intuitively should have benefited the BC Libs.

I have a hunch that we may well see another repeat of the BC 2013 election in terms of IVR/opt-in online panel polls this 2017 election cycle.

[DL]

The previous Mainstreet poll back in the fall had the NDP leading by 5 points so maybe the poll last week showing a tie was an anomaly and now we have a reversion to the mean. You have to feel sorry for poor Crooked Christy Clarke. She put her heart and soul into her budget and it clearly flopped in the eyes of the public. and to add insult to injury the Green party momentum and seems destined to fall back to their traditional 8%...and as the Green vote dropped for every one vote that goes to "Crooked Christy" the NDP picks up 5. According to the seat projection simulator on tooclosetocall, if this poll was the actual popular vote result the NDP would win 49 seats, the Liberals 36 and the Greens would get 2. 

If the NDP wins in BC, I look forward to them banning all corporate and union donations to political parties - which of course would bankrupt the BC Liberals who can only survive off massive corporate donations...plus some judicial inquiries into all the corruption under Crooked Christy. She is the most dishonest corrupt politician in Canada and ought to be thrown in jail.

[136or142]

If the NDP wins in BC, I look forward to them banning all corporate and union donations to political parties - which of course would bankrupt the BC Liberals who can only survive off massive corporate donations...plus some judicial inquiries into all the corruption under Crooked Christy. She is the most dishonest corrupt politician in Canada and ought to be thrown in jail.

That last part is a bit over the top. She's corrupt, but I don't think anything that she's done is actually illegal.  (Which is, of course, interesting in and of itself.)  Also, I think Kathleen Wynne's government, if not Wynne herself, is more corrupt.

[Lotuslander]

Haha. DL. You are from Toronto. Correct? Like a ~5-hour flight away from Vancouver. Sometimes you make logical common-sense analytical comments. But your foregoing comment is, what even "red" federal Liberals in BC would describe as "bat sh**t crazy".

In other BC political news today, for the first time in BC history, a unionized affiliate of the BC Federation of Labour - Ironworkers Local 97 - endorsed the BC Liberals. Quite an eye-opener:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/ironworkers-endorse-b-c-liberals-attack-ndp-for-lack-of-jobs-plan

Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's take:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-ironworkers-embrace-clarks-vision-for-their-future

Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth's take:

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http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/new-democrats-fume-as-ironworkers-union-endorses-clark

[DL]

The Ironworkers union represents a whopping 1,500 people. You can always find the odd fringe "company union" that is a shill for management. Some renegade miners union locals endorsed Trump too - even though he is virulently anti-labour.

In contrast CUPE BC has 80,000 members, BCGEU has 75,000 members, HEU 45,000 members, HSA BC 50,000 members, not to mention USW and Unifor  and BCTF each of which also have tens of thousands of members. I think if you added up the number of union members in BC that are from unions that support the NDP they would outnumber the puny Ironworkers by about 200 to 1.

[adma]

Btw/ Lotuslander's usual big-penis bile and DL's "Crooked Christy" business, this thread's giving me a pretty big whiff of cum grano salis.  Just saying.

It's like they're a pair of suitors battling for the affection of a fair damsel like Lil' Ole Me, not knowing that I feel they're both blowhard creeps who aren't worth my time.

(But hey; maybe that's a reflection of how sharply polarized and nuance-free BC electoral politics *always* has been.)

[136or142]

Btw/ Lotuslander's usual big-penis bile and DL's "Crooked Christy" business, this thread's giving me a pretty big whiff of cum grano salis.  Just saying.

It's like they're a pair of suitors battling for the affection of a fair damsel like Lil' Ole Me, not knowing that I feel they're both blowhard creeps who aren't worth my time.

(But hey; maybe that's a reflection of how sharply polarized and nuance-free BC electoral politics *always* has been.)

And your comment sounds to me like the 'both sides are equally bad' stuff.

[Lotuslander]

Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone.

Haha. DL. You have proven my point again. The BC Fed is now controlled by public sector unions. And the public sector union leadership supports the BC NDP.

That's where the major schism exists within the BC Fed - public sector unions v. private sector unions. Same within the BC NDP. A new phenomena arising out of the 2013 BC election and post period. Hell, at the past BC Fed convention, when asked by the BC media if the BC Fed opposes BC Hydro's Site C dam, BC Fed prez Irene Latzinger (former public sector BCTF prez) stated that the BC Fed has no opinion as the BC Fed is "split".

I will re-iterate again that just one year ago, the entire BC Building Trades unions held convention in Victoria and invited BC Lib cabinet minister Shirley Bond as a guest speaker. Another historical first. Moreover, Bond received a standing ovation. Who woulda thunk? Gets even more bizarre. Bond was invited to be a guest speaker at the national convention.

Not long after that, a high-level internal USW memo was leaked to the BC media  regarding the same matters publicly espoused today by the Ironworkers local (part of the BC Building Trades unions). I have previously posted same herein.  Quite apparent that the USW membership in mining in BC votes heavily BC Lib. Just look at the Elk Valley in SE BC - the locale of the largest metallurgical coal mines in Canada.

In any event, have said it once and will say it again. The BC NDP has been hijacked by a hard-core enviro crowd on the BC SW coast - against everything - numerous mines, KM twinning, natural gas development, nat gas pipelines, LNG, resource development, major highway development, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc., etc. - these are the projects where the unionized BC Building Trades have their work - their livelihoods. These union guys are literally "spooked".

Since you are from Toronto... let's imagine the ONDP opposes all 400-series expansion in the GTA... and opposes the proposed tolls on the DVP/Gardiner for transit expansion. And the ONDP opposes all resource development in northern Ontario, for example.  Would literally kill the ONDP - massive seat losses would result.

Grab your bag of popcorn and watch the BC election results roll in on May, 2017 e-day. Obviously then, and only then... will ya get my "drift".

PS. Since you are obviously a fan of IVR polls, which were also proven just cheap junk in the 2013 BC election, even then, you don't seriously believe that the BC Libs are polling higher on Van Isle than in Metro Vancouver based upon Mainstreet Research's numbers today? Or do you? Or are you even aware of the historical voting patterns/demographics of both BC regions?

[adma]

Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone.

In case you didn't notice, my knock was collectively aimed *both* at yourself *and* at DL.  It's about tone, not partisanship.

The moment we can arrive at a certain BC election-discussion decorum that isn't hijacked by retrograde hack-political-operative cant, I'm happy

[DL]

Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval. Needless to say John Horgan, not having been through an election campaign yet, is still relatively unknown:

Horgan -

Favourable 26%
Unfavourable 24%
Not sure 37%
Don't know him well enough 13%

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%

[136or142]

Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone.

In case you didn't notice, my knock was collectively aimed *both* at yourself *and* at DL.  It's about tone, not partisanship.

The moment we can arrive at a certain BC election-discussion decorum that isn't hijacked by retrograde hack-political-operative cant, I'm happy

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.