CA Congressional Races: Issa and Barragan in trouble?

[JerryArkansas]

I'm fairly sure all three incumbents will lose. Bera is the only one who has a solid chance of holding on.

Bera is already up and late ballots are more dem.  He likely got this.

[BuckeyeNut]

The margin between Issa and Applegate has actually grown by 845 votes. Stick a fork in her boys, she's done.

[Heisenberg]

I'm fairly sure all three incumbents will lose. Bera is the only one who has a solid chance of holding on.

Issa probably holds on by less than a hair, withstanding ballots should favor Bera, and I haven't followed CA-44 since it's D vs. D, but Barragan should be fine in this open seat.

[publicunofficial]

AP calls CA-07 for Ami Bera

[windjammer]

CA-49

Issa 121,549
Applegate 117,442

Orange County as a whole has 215,781 ballots left, and Issa is winning over 60% of the vote there.
San Diego County as a whole has 616,000 ballots left, and Applegate is winning 53% of the vote there.

Not ready to say anything about the final result of CA-49.

Let's imagine the margin of victory doesn't change:
In Orange: 215,781*20% (Issa's margin)=  + 43156 votes
In San Diego County: 616,000* 6% (Applegate's margin)= +36960
So if the margins doesn't change, Issa should win this by 10,000 votes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-7:

Bera 129,064
Jones 123,056

Ballots left in Sacramento County (as a whole): 136,644

CA-44:

Barragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Ballots left in Los Angeles County: 956,065

CA-49:

Issa 128,515
Applegate 123,562

Ballots left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 122,028
Ballots left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 466,300

I am ready to call one of the three races:

CA-7:

Bera 129,064 (WINNER)
Jones 123,056

While the numbers have not changed, Sacramento as a whole (not all is this district) updated its ballots left from roughly 136K to roughly 98k. There just isn't enough left to realistically make up all of this gap.

A few more votes came in CA-44. Still no call, and the ballots left # has not changed here:

Berragan 70,303
Hall, III 67,177

CA-49 also has more votes now, but again, no update to # of ballots left, so holding off on calling it:

Issa 134,428
Applegate 129,100

[NOVA Green]

CA-7:

Bera 129,064
Jones 123,056

Ballots left in Sacramento County (as a whole): 136,644

CA-44:

Barragan 66,144
Hall, III 63,564

Ballots left in Los Angeles County: 956,065

CA-49:

Issa 128,515
Applegate 123,562

Ballots left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 122,028
Ballots left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 466,300

I am ready to call one of the three races:

CA-7:

Bera 129,064 (WINNER)
Jones 123,056

While the numbers have not changed, Sacramento as a whole (not all is this district) updated its ballots left from roughly 136K to roughly 98k. There just isn't enough left to realistically make up all of this gap.

A few more votes came in CA-44. Still no call, and the ballots left # has not changed here:

Berragan 70,303
Hall, III 67,177

CA-49 also has more votes now, but again, no update to # of ballots left, so holding off on calling it:

Issa 134,428
Applegate 129,100

So now that SD county did it's daily dump:

Isaa: 140,374    (+6,000)
Applegate: 136,123  (+7,023)

Isaa + 4,251 overall and Orange County should do another vote dump in 29 minutes....

Of the 13,023 new ballots counted in SD Co. in HD-49 (53.9-46.1 % D), as opposed to the previous numbers which were (52.7-47.3 D)....

It's impossible to know for sure how many ballots are out by CD, but typically in California Provisional ballots are counted last, and tend to skew much more heavily Democratic than VbMs/ Same-Day Precinct ballots.

Will it be enough and how how many ballots are outstanding in OC parts of CD-49 vs SD CD-49....

Still thinking this could well be a squeaker....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA county updated its ballots left from ~956k to ~762k. CA-44 numbers are unchanged from my previous post.

CA-49:

Issa 140374
Applegate 136123

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 92,484
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

Still not ready to call either remaining race.

[rbt48]

LA county updated its ballots left from ~956k to ~762k. CA-44 numbers are unchanged from my previous post.

CA-49:
Issa 140374
Applegate 136123

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 92,484
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

Still not ready to call either remaining race.

Amazing.  What an inefficient, costly, and untimely way to tabulate election results.  California takes the cake, pie, and ice cream.

This seems to indicate there are perhaps 360,000 more votes to tabulate in CD-49 with 276,000 already counted.  That could potentially yield a total of 636,000 votes in this CD.  I think most CDs have perhaps 300,000 votes cast.  I'm not sure how this huge number can be explained.

[NOVA Green]

LA county updated its ballots left from ~956k to ~762k. CA-44 numbers are unchanged from my previous post.

CA-49:
Issa 140374
Applegate 136123

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 92,484
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

Still not ready to call either remaining race.

Amazing.  What an inefficient, costly, and untimely way to tabulate election results.  California takes the cake, pie, and ice cream.

This seems to indicate there are perhaps 360,000 more votes to tabulate in CD-49 with 276,000 already counted.  That could potentially yield a total of 636,000 votes in this CD.  I think most CDs have perhaps 300,000 votes cast.  I'm not sure how this huge number can be explained.

I believe that Dwarven was simply pulling up an estimated total number of *estimated* votes remaining to be counted in the entire counties respectively, and not just in CD-49, since none of us know exactly how many estimated VbMs and Provisionals are remaining by California CD, let alone state House and Senate districts....

The actual amount of votes outstanding in US Rep CD-49 is likely much lower than those numbers....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nothing new today Re: CA-44

New CA-49 numbers:

Issa 144063
Applegate 139675

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 71,505
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

[NOVA Green]

Nothing new today Re: CA-44

New CA-49 numbers:

Issa 144063
Applegate 139675

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 71,505
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 273,600

You missed the latest dump from CA-49:

Down to a + 3,234 Isaa lead at this point.....

This includes BOTH the latest updates from today (OC: 6:22 PM and SD: 7:02 PM)

Isaa:         148,907 (+4,844)
Applegate: 145,673 (+5.998)

The obvious question is how many ballots are outstanding in this particular CD, however OC County now has an estimated 61,649 ballots left to be counted in the entire county, and almost entirely provisional ballots.

San Diego County has an estimated 106k ballots left to be counted in the entire county, and likely are at least 2:1 provisional ballots.

73% of the ballots counted to date are in San Diego County, so even though Applegate's margins haven't jumped up dramatically since the last dump (they dropped slightly), we are already starting to see the results of provisional ballots since OC are starting to wrap up their VbM count, and I strongly suspect we will see a similar pattern tomorrow, since County Election offices are trying to work through this before they have their Thanksgiving Weekend (County reporting numbers might be a bit lower tomorrow with the Holiday Weekend and all, and employees taking PTO to add an extra vacation day to get a rush on travel plans and all that....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-44 Update:

Berragan 79,295
Hall, III 74,462

Ballots Left in Los Angeles County: 485,616

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-49 Update:

Issa 151,188
Applegate 148,190

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 61,649
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 164,600

#ISSAMARGINUNDER3000

[NOVA Green]

CA-49 Update:

Issa 151,188
Applegate 148,190

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 61,649
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 164,600

#ISSAMARGINUNDER3000

OC is now down to 48.8k ballots left to be counted (Virtually all provisional).
SD is now down to  86k ballots left to be counted (Provisionals)

Could well be a squeaker, but the Provos will likely tilt heavily Dem. Will be down to the wire, regardless of the slow pace of Cali vote counting.....

[windjammer]

CA-49 Update:

Issa 151,188
Applegate 148,190

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 61,649
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 164,600

#ISSAMARGINUNDER3000

Well, if we imagine the margin doesn't change:
Issa should get additionnal 3687 votes and win the election by  6885 votes.

-------
However, let's look at my earlier prediction:

CA-49

Issa 121,549
Applegate 117,442

Orange County as a whole has 215,781 ballots left, and Issa is winning over 60% of the vote there.
San Diego County as a whole has 616,000 ballots left, and Applegate is winning 53% of the vote there.

Not ready to say anything about the final result of CA-49.

Let's imagine the margin of victory doesn't change:
In Orange: 215,781*20% (Issa's margin)=  + 43156 votes
In San Diego County: 616,000* 6% (Applegate's margin)= +36960
So if the margins doesn't change, Issa should win this by 10,000 votes.

There were 215,781 ballots in Orange, assuming Issa's lead doesn't change in Orange: considering there are 61,649 who remain: Issa's margin should have become wider in Orange (215,781-61,649)*(0.22)= 33909  so by 33909 votes
And In San Diego, Applegate's margin: (616,000-164,600)*0.06=+27084 votes

So theorically, Issa's margin should have been increased by almost 10,000 votes, and in fact he lost 1,109 votes, only a 3,000 votes lead.

Meaning the votes were more favourable to Applegate than expected.


I assume Issa's will win in the end, but closer than previously thought.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, let's start with the still-undecided CA-44:

Barragan 84,266
Hall, III 77,937

Votes left in Los Angeles County (as a whole): 319,443

Barragan is starting to pull away here, but looking at turnout in the other districts, the fact that both candidates are still significantly under 100k votes makes me think that a lot of the remaining votes are in this district. So still holding off on declaring a winner here.

However, in CA-49, I am ready to make a rather unfortunate projection:

Issa 154,313 (WINNER)
Applegate 151,965

Votes left in Orange County (61-39 Issa): 44,478
Votes left in San Diego County (53-47 Applegate): 52,600

The margin is continuing to narrow, but there are just not enough votes left for Applegate to catch up (keep in mind that not all votes in these counties are from this specific district) - for a while there was a significant difference in terms of the votes left in SD vs. the votes left in Orange but now they are basically the same. The margins in both have been remarkably consistent throughout the late count - Applegate has bounced between 52.8% and 53.1% in SD, and Issa has bounced between 60.5% and 60.6% in Orange - so it seems quite unlikely that we would suddenly get some 90% Applegate area in SD or some 90% Issa area in Orange - the current margin should be the final margin, give or take a few hundred votes. With the gap still >2k, I just don't see how Applegate does it.

[The Other Castro]

The Associated Press ‏@AP  6m6 minutes ago
BREAKING: California Republican Congressman Darrell Issa narrowly wins re-election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The essentially identical timing between my calls and the AP's calls in both CA-07 and CA-49 is rather interesting.

[publicunofficial]

The essentially identical timing between my calls and the AP's calls in both CA-07 and CA-49 is rather interesting.

Not really.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-44 Update:

Barragan 88,500
Hall, III 81,674

Votes left in Los Angeles County (as a whole): 184,615

About 90% confident that Barragan will win, but I'll still hold off on calling this as it's still possible that the remaining votes are disproportionately from this district and go for Hall by enough to change things.

[Gass3268]

Applegate has already announced he's running again in 2018 in a fundraising letter.

[Maxwell]

Applegate has already announced he's running again in 2018 in a fundraising letter.

Beautiful! Time to knock Issa out for good!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Applegate has already announced he's running again in 2018 in a fundraising letter.

Enthusiastically Endorsed. Let's kick out the fossil!

[rbt48]

Latest California SoS site results for CD-49:

Issa - 155,006, 50.3%
Applegate - 153,035, 49.7%

So, the gap has closed to within 2,000 votes; 1,981 to be exact.