California: 2nd* Most Democratic State

[politicallefty]

As it stands right now, California is the 2nd most Democratic state in the country, with Hillary Clinton at 61.5% and Donald Trump at 33.2%. Hillary's percentage and margin are the highest for a Democrat since 1936, when FDR won every county and carried the state with a supermajority. With at least 4.4 million votes to count (not including what's remaining out of San Diego County), I think Hillary will cross 62% and maybe even 63% (conceivably being the most Democratic state in the nation). I would not rule out a 2-1 margin in California, which (other than the anomalous 1912 election) would be the worst Republican performance in California since before the Civil War, if not ever. Her performance in the state has easily exceeded Barack Obama in either of his elections.

For the first time since 1936, a Democrat has won Orange County, and so far by at least a 5% margin. I just want to point out how much California has rejected Trump by noting some county results, which are almost insane by any historical standards:

Orange County: 49.9-44.7
Los Angeles: 71.5-23.4
San Diego: 55.9-38.9
San Francisco: 85.3-9.9
Alameda: 79.5-15.1
Santa Clara: 73.3-23.3
Marin: 78.9-16.1

If you know anything about California politics, you'd know these kind of numbers are unheard of. And if history tells us anything, the remaining vote will increase the Democratic margins even more. I know a lot of people, including myself, were predicting a Hillary win in Orange County, but did anyone predict at least a 5% margin and what will probably end up being an absolute majority when all votes are counted?

And for all those that talking about a high third party vote, Gary Johnson stands at 3.2% and Jill Stein at 1.7%. I don't consider either of those to be particularly impressive.

[The Mikado]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

[longtimelurker]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

That will wait for 2022, after the 2020 census and redistricting.

[MT Treasurer]

This is why the Electoral College helps the GOP a lot.

[Gass3268]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

Issa could conceivably still lose.

[Sumner 1868]

This is mostly because Vermont had a lot of Sanders write-ins.

[Figueira]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

That will wait for 2022, after the 2020 census and redistricting.

This makes no sense; California is not a gerrymandered state, and there are still individual districts that are close even when the House as a whole is a bit of a reach.

Anyway, the real reason the Democrats didn't make any House gains in California (barring recount surprises) is because the 2014 wave didn't really happen there.

[peterthlee]

We have San Diego voting to the left of IL, NJ and RI. Amazing. Some are already calling that the GOP fails to exist in the Golden State (I am more cautious and will not stand by that).

[Xing]

This is why the electoral college needs to be abolished. California is not "just one state", it's over 12% of the U.S. population.

[peterthlee]

From the NY Times Results page, Clinton crossed 50% in the OC.

[Klartext89]

Where's the difference for the GOP whether they lose CA with 40-60 or with 30-70 or with 20-80?

They - probably - have a 241-194 majority in the House with CA splitting 14-39. 10 of the 14 GOP Held Districts are R+5 or more (mostly R+10), so it can't really get much worse.

Assuming the demographics and the urban face of CA, I'm surprised that Trump still could get 1/3 of the vote.

Clearly, Republicans will be as sad about losing Orange County than Dems are about losing Elliot County Kentucky, but wasn't it only a matter of time?

[StateBoiler]

We have San Diego voting to the left of IL, NJ and RI. Amazing. Some are already calling that the GOP fails to exist in the Golden State (I am more cautious and will not stand by that).

The top two system is why people are saying that.

Sometimes areas go under one-party control. Where I live in Indiana the Democratic Party effectively does not exist now, their congressional candidate for instance was a joke and supported Trump. I don't see any 3rd party on the horizon in California unless Latinos decide to startup some PRI or PAN clone, Trump got quadruple the votes of Stein in San Francisco.

[politicallefty]

This is mostly because Vermont had a lot of Sanders write-ins.

The NYT results has Hillary at 61.1% in Vermont. Dave's counting of write-ins is sort of arbitrary and weird, especially considering how we do predictions. Granted, my predictions were far off this year, but any other source would have validated my >60% D prediction for Vermont.

Just to update the counties from above:

Orange County: 51.0-43.3
Los Angeles: 71.4-23.4
San Diego: 56.1-38.1
San Francisco: 85.6-9.4
Alameda: 79.4-14.8
Santa Clara: 73.3-20.9
Marin: 78.15.9

Those are all historical margins.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

California's totals do not reflect write ins yet. A few counties have posted their numbers on their websites, but the state hasn't posted them, nor has Atlas. (We might as well hold off until they're all included).

[cwt]

This is why the electoral college needs to be abolished. California is not "just one state", it's over 12% of the U.S. population.

Wouldn't it be procedurally a lot easier for Democrats to reform this by breaking California into say 6 states?  They only need to pass an ordinary law and get the approval of the CA legislature for that, as opposed to a constitutional amendment to abolish the EC.

10 new Safe Democratic Senate seats? Yeah I'm sure Congress would go for that.

[dax00]

This is why the electoral college needs to be abolished. California is not "just one state", it's over 12% of the U.S. population.

Wouldn't it be procedurally a lot easier for Democrats to reform this by breaking California into say 6 states?  They only need to pass an ordinary law and get the approval of the CA legislature for that, as opposed to a constitutional amendment to abolish the EC.

10 new Safe Democratic Senate seats? Yeah I'm sure Congress would go for that.

assuming fair division of the state and a 3:2 ratio of dems to reps, one would expect 4 new dem senators and 4 new rep senators

[jaichind]

The Dem margin of victory in CA is only surpassed by the 1936 FDR landslide.

[jaichind]

Another interesting fact that CA has trended Dem every election since and including 2000.  Same is true for VA.  This result is a long time coming.

[politicallefty]

The Dem margin of victory in CA is only surpassed by the 1936 FDR landslide.

That's interesting because the most Republican county in California now was the most Democratic county back then: Lassen County.

Another interesting fact that CA has trended Dem every election since and including 2000.  Same is true for VA.  This result is a long time coming.

That may be true, but it seems like the trend has massively accelerated this year. If Texas had experienced this sort of shift, it might have flipped.

With the exception of the anomalous 1912 election, Trump's vote total for a Republican in San Francisco is the lowest since 1908 (and even lower than 1904). In terms of actual percentage, it is the worst ever and Hillary's percentage is the best ever in a presidential election.

To update from above once again:

Orange County: 51.4-42.8
Los Angeles: 71.22.8
San Diego: 56.5-37.5
San Francisco: 85.6-9.3
Alameda: 79.4-14.8
Santa Clara: 73.4-20.8
Marin: 78.15.7

Hillary's margin of victory in Orange County is just under 100k. Even in San Diego County, the margin from four years ago has gone from 7.5% to 18% and from 90k to 230k. Both of those are unprecedented margins.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

A lot of upset Californians want to secede now. The same thing happened in Texas in 2012. I know they won't actually leave, but I'd support letting them go. I think California is large enough to do it (so is Texas, but I'd like them to stay for their oil).

It would be interesting to see what new parties would form in an independent country of California. I suspect you would see the democrats dividing on racial lines like how they did in the Senate race. Harris won every group by far except for hispanics. Republicans would likely morph into a single-issue center-right party focused on rejoining the US.

[Kerrington]

TBH, if there had been a Republican senatorial candidate, more Republicans would have been willing to cast a ballot...

[politicallefty]

A lot of upset Californians want to secede now. The same thing happened in Texas in 2012. I know they won't actually leave, but I'd support letting them go. I think California is large enough to do it (so is Texas, but I'd like them to stay for their oil).

It would be interesting to see what new parties would form in an independent country of California. I suspect you would see the democrats dividing on racial lines like how they did in the Senate race. Harris won every group by far except for hispanics. Republicans would likely morph into a single-issue center-right party focused on rejoining the US.

That's a valid point, but Obama had numbers far higher than Trump has in California. And, to be perfectly honest, I personally would vote for California independence. But if the state were to ever leave, I couldn't really foresee a party movement to reverse that decision.

As to your second point, we may be seeing the buddings of something along those lines. As a state becomes a one-party state, the other party breaks down and the larger party grows to the point of having multiple factions. We're not there yet, but California has seen the Democratic Party registration grow from about 8% (or 1.3 million) in 2003 to 19% this year (about 3.7 million voters). With the Democratic Supermajority back in place, we'll have to see what happens.

TBH, if there had been a Republican senatorial candidate, more Republicans would have been willing to cast a ballot...

I don't know about that. How many people do you know that would actually think that?

If you compare apples to apples, Hawaii without write-ins and California without write-ins, California is indeed the most Democratic state in the nation by a very slim margin.

[muon2]

Another interesting fact that CA has trended Dem every election since and including 2000.  Same is true for VA.  This result is a long time coming.

Wealthy, productive, highly educated, tax paying states = trending democrat.

I would add information economy to that list. Educated workers in that sector have led the charge to the Dems, whether on the east coast or the west coast.

[JoshPA]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

That will wait for 2022, after the 2020 census and redistricting.

This makes no sense; California is not a gerrymandered state, and there are still individual districts that are close even when the House as a whole is a bit of a reach.

Anyway, the real reason the Democrats didn't make any House gains in California (barring recount surprises) is because the 2014 wave didn't really happen there.

suprise but gerrymandered is never going to be solved.

[Lachi]

And yet Democrats failed to knock off even a single one of the three vulnerable GOP House incumbents in CA.

That will wait for 2022, after the 2020 census and redistricting.

This makes no sense; California is not a gerrymandered state, and there are still individual districts that are close even when the House as a whole is a bit of a reach.

Anyway, the real reason the Democrats didn't make any House gains in California (barring recount surprises) is because the 2014 wave didn't really happen there.

suprise but gerrymandered is never going to be solved.

It can, and it involves independent commissions. This, however, is never going to happen unless the government mandates them, because muh state legislatures.