Could the MidWest become the new Appalachia?

[Blue3]

Could the MidWest become the new Appalachia (in terms of trending away from Democrats so much they become Safe Republican, due to decline of industrialization, and white working class anger)?

[Figueira]

I think they're more angry at whomever is in power than the Democrats specifically. Notice that Obama did great there in 2008 (even winning Indiana). And the Midwest has too many major cities to be safely Republican.

[Blackacre]

we'll see. 2018 will be a test, and one of two things will happen.

1. Democrats pick up the Gubernatorial seats in Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Illinois, possibly OhIowa, and hold onto PA and MN. They also retain their senate seats in said states. (Minus IA and IL, plus IN and MO) This would mean the midwestern anger is redirected at Trump and the midwest could be Democratic territory yet again.

2. Democrats gain a net of +-0 or worse in midwestern Gubernatorial seats, losing PA and MN while only gaining IL and maybe Michigan back. Democrats also lose the senate races in MO, IN, WI, OH, PA, and maybe MN and MI. This would suggest that the Democrats have become toxic to the Midwest and it truly will have become the new Appalachia politically.

[Blue3]

How white is the Midwest, compared to other traditional Democratic regions like New England, New York, New Jersey, Maryland/Delaware, and the West Coast?

[Bismarck]

Only if college educated whites stick with the GOP as well.

[Averroës Nix]

Outside of its major cities, much of it is already there.

The more appropriate question at this point is whether this change is reversible. Why would the non-(major) metropolitan Midwest begin to vote differently at this point? Young people are leaving, unions are disempowered and increasingly irrelevant, and public investment is declining. Social relationships are disintegrating and the economy is in gradual decline. I don't understand why any Democrat would be optimistic about seriously competing in these places ever again.

[The_Doctor]

No. The Midwest will return to the Democratic fold. They aren't corporate Democratic friendly. They're populist Democratic friendly. Since that is where the party is going, the Midwest will return to the fold. The GOP have a temporary hold.

Maybe in the 2040s, 2050s, the GOP begins to crack the Midwest for good. But not this era. .

[Vosem]

No. The Midwest will return to the Democratic fold. They aren't corporate Democratic friendly. They're populist Democratic friendly. Since that is where the party is going, the Midwest will return to the fold. The GOP have a temporary hold.

Is that where the party is going in the short term, though? The long term generational trends certainly suggest it, but short term demographic changes (who is exiting and entering the Democratic Party) are likely to keep the corporate wing dominant for about another decade or so.

This is all really hard to speculate with because we don't know exactly how popular or unpopular President Trump will be, and among whom. It's difficult to speculate about the future of either party without knowing that.

[The_Doctor]

No. The Midwest will return to the Democratic fold. They aren't corporate Democratic friendly. They're populist Democratic friendly. Since that is where the party is going, the Midwest will return to the fold. The GOP have a temporary hold.

Is that where the party is going in the short term, though? The long term generational trends certainly suggest it, but short term demographic changes (who is exiting and entering the Democratic Party) are likely to keep the corporate wing dominant for about another decade or so.

This is all really hard to speculate with because we don't know exactly how popular or unpopular President Trump will be, and among whom. It's difficult to speculate about the future of either party without knowing that.

Exit polls indicated Bernie bros are the ones who denied Hillary a clear win. The younger cohorts had significant numbers of "other" votes, that hurt her. It suggests that these people are going to be in power and have demonstrated that they will withhold votes from any Democrat who will not agree to their populist demands.

Also 50% of Democrats I think no longer think socialist is a bad word.

In the short run, the GOP will rule the Midwest on the backs of disaffected white voters.

[RINO Tom]

An area becoming more Republican doesn't always mean it's becoming more like an area that also votes Republican...?

[Sumner 1868]

An area becoming more Republican doesn't always mean it's becoming more like an area that also votes Republican...?

Arizona is not like South Carolina, Kansas is not like Wyoming, etc, etc.