Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don’t think it will be an ideological realignment though like 1932 and 1980 were , and IMO it will be more similar to 1896 which was a party realignment or 1860 which was a realignment what led to a 36 year era of polarization (which in this case 2004 would be the realigning election )


From 1896-1932: 16/36 we had presidents who were progressive on economic issues in the White House

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with the idea that "Trump is a symptom of our economic problems, and that's why the WWC will flip" is that many, many studies have shown that racial and cultural resentment, not economic anxiety, is the root of Trump support. Of course, the two aren't completely separate, but how do you explain so many people overcoming their cultural anxieties to vote Democrat during the realignment?

Do they vote Democrat? Cuz TD’s 2036 GOP victory map has the Republican sweeping almost everywhere minus the Southwest going Dem (stretching from California-Texas).

The Bannonite economic reforms to the GOP after their 2028 landslide loss help rein in a good amount of WWC voters who left them in the 2020’s. These economic reforms mirror Einsehower embracing the New Deal in 1952 and Bill Clinton embracing neoliberal economics. This is what the GOP will be pressured into doing as the Cordray populist Democratic Party restructures the macroeconomic regime of the United States and cement it with public support.

The 2044 election will probably see the trends of 2024-2028 start to cement themselves. Baby boomers will have passed away in 2044 and the Millennial generation will likely muscle Gen Xers out of the political arena (who are a smaller generation since the 1960’s-70’s saw a baby bust).

Except the Sanders  left has to be successful in governing the country like Reagan was for realignment to happen which I don’t see happening.


Also I don’t think the new realigned dem party will be as far left as Sanders/Warren as they are to the left of even the democrats  from 1930s -1970s and remember none of the GOP presidents since 1980 have been as right wing as McKinley/Harding/Coolidge were so I don’t see the Dems being as far left as FDR/Truman/LBJ were.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Except the Sanders  left has to be successful in governing the country like Reagan was for realignment to happen which I don’t see happening.


Also I don’t think the new realigned dem party will be as far left as Sanders/Warren as they are to the left of even the democrats  from 1930s -1970s and remember none of the GOP presidents since 1980 have been as right wing as McKinley/Harding/Coolidge were so I don’t see the Dems being as far left as FDR/Truman/LBJ were.

So you’re just here to argue with the entire premise of this timeline? Ok Lol.

I'm not saying there won't be a democratic realignment but I would say it would be to the left of Clinton but right of FDR/LBJ

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well it's possible that the end of the era could feature radicals who ignore the prevailing consensus. Prohibition was the extreme example. But I feel abortion is a way to prematurely end rhe Republican majority. I think even dating to the 1980s Republicans mouthed anti abortion platitudes but didn't launch an missile at Roe after 1992.

Pence might but after RFR in Indiana he might settle for a twenty week ban. I don't think as of now that the Republicans want to overturn Roe as an aggregate outside the most fervent. That said I do think I should've written more about the Pence White House's evangelical nature and social conservatism at some length.

About a Government shutdown, I don't think it would happen if Trump wasn't President.


The reason for that is Trump was the one who sabotaged the DACA deal at the last minute while virtually any GOP president would not have even removed DACA in the first place.


Also with a unified GOP government, the GOP Donors would put a huge amount of pressure on most congressional Republicans to not shut down the Government under a GOP president so their likely won't be a shutdown with a Pence Presidency(Cruz also would not shut down the government under a GOP President because in reality he is part of the establishment who pretends to be an outsider under a Dem Presidency).

Walker and Cruz were the two conventional republicans that attempted to take a somewhat harder line on immigration much to the chagrin of the donors though.

http://web.archive.org/web/20150802000148/bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-04-21/scott-walker-breaks-with-the-kochs-on-immigration

They were running for President


In Their Actions When they were in power I dont think they take a much harder line on immigration than maybe at best keeping status quo in 2016(not ending DACA, but no Path to Legalization either).



Also I dont think Cruz shuts down the government under a GOP President .

A State AG or a number of State AGs would've sued the Federal Government over DACA, and ultimately the administration would be forced to address the issue one way or another. They'd have to defend DACA in court if they wanted it to continue.

Well but you agree that they wouldnt shut down the government under a GOP President like this timeline predicts.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Republican shutdowns are a result of the fact the party is no longer able to unite between warring factions and that's regardless of the President. In other words this isn't just a matter of the candidates. The HFC is a thorn in Paul Ryan's side and was so in John Boehner as well.

The next articles will probably be about 1.) #metoo and the emerging Democratic majority and 2.) the imperial presidencies and expanded executive overreach of Presidents Cordray and Castro.

1995-96 Shutdown Policy Wise was a victory for the GOP (though politically a loss). Clinton agreed to cut spending, and sign welfare reform .


2013 Shutdown was due to the GOP last ditch effort to repeal Obamacare before it would get implemented in the last month. Ted Cruz led the shutdown efforts in the Senate and the only reason it worked for so long was the House leadership was behind him until they decided to stop it as well.


the most recent shutdown was not caused by a division in the Republican Party (All the Republicans except Rand Paul and Mike Lee supported keeping it open) , it was caused by Trump blowing up the DACA deal at the last minute and the Democratic filibuster.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In Many Ways the Debt Crises in this TL is extremely similar to 2008-2010 CA and their budget crises and the GOP gets wiped out the same way due to it

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cordray has gone down

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does TD still post on here? I'd be curious to see what his thoughts are on Cordray losing and whether or not he has any thoughts on who could be an alternative.

Maybe Whitmer (though I doubt it )

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'll post a write up if Arizona's McSally wins (which will keep BTM on track). Cordray's loss is a big problem but I suspect the realigner will still come from the Midwest, as Obama (the foreshadowing President) came from Illinois).

But let me wait to see what happens in Arizona first. The Senate GOP gaining a net 3 seats means the 2024 Senate blowout would be comparable to 2008. I didn't imagine a scenario possible where the GOP would gain 3 but lose the House because it hadn't happened before (most comparable, ironically, was the first midterm of the current alignment in 1982).

I would say this election was more 1970 than 1982

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm still here. I tend to be on Discord a lot more than here. Apparently, instead of Azerbaijain, we're getting Ukraine.

I will say the GOP is not knocked out but Trump might be hitting the end of his rope.

Feel free to leave questions or topics you want me to address, if anything.  

I wonder how your theory will work out if 2020 results in a Dem winning the Presidency but Republicans keeping the senate

[OSR stands with Israel]

Part II

So, this is the crucial element. The economy is slowing down (it was supposed to in late '18, it's turning out to be a year off and this is going into late '19).

This raises questions about a 2020 realignment, of course. And I'll say that I'm not convinced the economic slowdown will be that significant enough to derail a Republican victory.

In my thinking, voters may dislike Trump - but do they dislike the entire Republican brand to oust Pence, if he became President and mitigated much of what Trump did with the trade wars?

I'm skeptical. For one, the GOP's geographic coalition does not seem to have significantly broken. To date, the 538 House tracker shows the GOP trailing by 6%, Trump's approval rating is at 43%. In BTM, Pence won 49%. Basically, if you subscribe to the theory Trump runs behind a normal GOP President, you could get a number close to Pence's 49%.

Is it possible everything breaks in 2020 and Pence loses in a blowout to President x? Possible.

But I don't think any Democrat has the werewithal (Biden or otherwise) to beat a stable incumbent Republican President. The GOP geographic coalition, the internal Democratic battle for the direction of the Party, and the strength of the Reagan coalition (the donors, the think tanks, the party brass, etc) and the economy not collapsing completely probably adds to one last gasp for the Reagan coalition.

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).  

We are absolutely seeing the slow death of the Reagan coalition in Trump's failed White House, though, with the Reagan coalition being significantly underpowered compared to 1981, 1994, 2000, and 2004. It's hard to assess Trump as anything but the Reagan coalition losing its respectable institutions and becoming the conspiracy minded erratic fringe that dominates center stage.

But I still think the institutional strength of the coalition Reagan and Nixon built is strong enough to overcome the conspiracy lunacy, the insanity, and the rising left wing strength to beat out them one last time. And I think Mike Pence is going to be the incarnation of that last stand in 2020 and 2024.

What if though say the Dems narrowly win in 2020 and you still have a Republican Senate . Could the Republicans pull a 1896 in either 2024 2028 in which they were able to revitalize their coalition for a new generation despite the fact that it seemed like they were in decline throughout the 1880s and early 1890s and Dems seemed to be on verge of having their own coalition

Most historians consider 1896 a realignment as well because of the fact that there were some differences between that Republican coalition and the Lincoln coalition and it set of a new era of dominance.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No. The Republican era of 1980 to 2020/4 is two distinct eras. (Reagan 1980 to Bush 2000) (Bush 2000 to Trump/Pence TBD).

The Lincoln coalition was also ascendant with important business elements and northern voters coming into their own in 1896. Conversely the Democratic technology sector and the emerging Obama coalition is coming into its own as we clearly saw in 2018.
 
The clear fact that Millennials were the key to the Democratic House dispels your theory alone, a fact not present in the Civil War generations and their heirs who propelled the Republicans.

Generation Z is also on track to imitate Millennials and likely at this juncture would provide the confirmation Presidency the votes for election.

But then when do you think realignment happens if say a Dem wins narrowly in 2020 with a Republican senate and the recession happens say in late 2021 early 2022 . While Gen Z might be super Dem now who says they would be say after a Dem President who didn’t do a good job and a Republican say DeSantis or Haley does a very good job .


Reagan realigned the nation not cause of his victory but because he was a very successful president and who’s policies actually helped the economy grow and improved America’s presence in the world . If he wasn’t a good President Reagan wouldn’t have realigned the nation

[OSR stands with Israel]

If the Democrats win the Presidency they're winning the Senate. The recession would be the catalyst along with Trump's impeachment.  

Not really they need 3 seats to win the senate and the number is actually 4 due to the fact that Alabama most certainly will be won by the GOP.


So in the case they win a narrow victory (2016+ MI , PA, WI , AZ) that likely only nets the Democrats 1 seat (They gain CO and AZ and lose AL ) and even if you add NC to the mix of what they will win 2020 that will only net them two seats which isn’t enough for a majority.


They can’t win narrowly and take the senate

I'm going to be respectful. Please take your arguments elsewhere. You repeated yourself twice and are now trying to argue with me after I answered you. Please find another thread to do so. Thank you.

Ok Sorry

[OSR stands with Israel]

Quick note on the Democratic battle - Warren takes the place of Sherrod Brown and Biden takes the place of Cuomo. If you'll notice, Warren is the firebrand who is incapable of forming a General election coalition and has the foresight to see the future Democratic majority but not the Rooseveltian-Reagan chops to take it there (much like Sherrod Brown, I guess) and Biden is the aging establishment choice. I think Buttigieg would be a possible realignment choice but at this point, he's too young and inexperienced in forming a major coalition. (Roosevelt and Reagan were former Governors; Lincoln had significant experience in the Illinois state House and the Whig & GOP by the time he was President, Jefferson was part of the Founding Fathers).

I was thinking that Buttigieg could work as an alternative choice as the realigning President as well. Presuming that he loses in the primary this time around, maybe he'll have the experience necessary by 2024 depending on how he spends the next couple of years.

I actually have Mayor Pete in my mind as the confirmation president for some reason or at least close to the characteristics of the confirmation Democratic White House of the 2040s.

I'm not sold he's the realigning President because honestly he's too young and inexperienced to have the job of crafting a decades long new coalition that ushers in a radical period of change. That sort of stuff requires an experienced hand.

I could see that. He's certainly has the political talent to become President some day and is still young enough to try again at some point. Do you have any thoughts on who the realigning President could be since things didn't work out with Cordray?

Maybe Whitmer

[OSR stands with Israel]

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

It's not her. She's an academic policy wonk untested to the rigors of leading a national coalition. In fact none of the Democrats really appear to be ready like Roosevelt and Reagan.

If it is a Midwesterner do you think Whitmer could be the realigner? That's the only candidate who I think fits your bill(Since I highly doubt Pritzker, Wolf , or Evers could be one). In Parrotguy's TL , Mayor Pete was the realigner although in that TL , Mayor Pete ran and won the Indiana Gubernatorial race in 2020 and then won the presidency in a landslide in 2024 .



As for Reagan, he pretty much was a realigner in state politics as well taking a state that historically has progressive governors and mostly had them for 50 years to mostly having conservative governors for the next 44 years and conservatives having a policy control on the state for the next 32.  While Dems had control of the legislature prop 13, the 2/3 budget rule at the time pretty, line item veto , gave the Dem legislature very little checks against Republican Governors .


The ironic part is that it was a budget crisis under a Republican Governor that realigned CA politics in 2010 as well and mainly the fact that the government remained paralyzed during that crises that caused the realignment as well. In fact their is article after article in 2009 and 2010 calling CA the most ungovernable state in the union .

[OSR stands with Israel]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.



Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis . Once they do a good job Gen Z will go to them since more of their memories will be from their presidencies and not Trump’s

[OSR stands with Israel]

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.



Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008.

In fact, a Trump impeachment is one of the big blinking signs of an realignment election coming.  Nixon's impeachment spelled the end of the Eastern Establishment GOP and the rise of the Reagan GOP.

If you examine the fundamentals of the GOP, the reason for Trump's performance and why the GOP will be weaker later on are one and the same.

True,  but someone like DeSantis or Hogan you could argue is not a Republican from the Reagan/Bush neo-liberal conservative mold and more from the populist conservative mode but unlike Trump is competent . DeSantis's work on the environment so far shows he is willing to break with GOP orthodoxy, so you could say him winning could show that the parties have realigned because he certianly wouldn't have been the nominee in a 1980-2012 GOP  .  For this to happen though the party leadership needs to act now and plan for 2024 and maybe allow Dems to win the Presidency in 2020 so they can rebuild for the long run and start this phase with a strong position than start the phase after everything collapses.

If they dont start now , then 2022 and 2024 will be a repeat of 2006 and 2008 except in 2025 the Democratic Party will be unified behind the progressive wing unlike in 2009 and by the time the GOP gets their act together, much of what conservatives have fought for will be gone.

As history has proves once govemrent programs are implemented, they are almost impossible to remove so anything the Dems get from 2025-2027/2031 will be locked in just like basically everything they got from 1933-1939, 1961-1967 and arguably 2009-2011 has been locked in.



So I think it would be better for the GOP in 2020 to just focus on keeping the Senate and allowing the Presidency to fall to the Democrats even if Mike Pence is the nominee. I dont think either Warren or Sanders really will be able to make long term changes anyway (They both are campaigning more like 64 Goldwater than 80 Reagan) which will make them unpopular and allow a Reinvented GOP around someone like DeSantis and Hogan to rore back in 2024.

[OSR stands with Israel]

^Also there is nobody like Jermey Corbyn in the Dem party . Bernie and Warren while left wing are no where near as left as Corbyn . Hell even AOC looks like a centrist compared to Corbyn .

- At this point I think the GOP should set up to groom DeSantis or Hogan for the Presidency in 2024 while secretly throwing Trump/Pence under a bus to save their party from utter disasters in 2022 and 2024.

- If Dems get in with more than 55 senate seats , the filibuster will be abolished and the Dems will pass single payer and many other leftist policies will pass and history has shown time and time again that once government programs are created they are almost impossible to remove . I mean even from
 1980-2008 which was dominated by conservatives for much of that period they barely were able to roll back any parts of the great society .


- So if Trump loses in 2020 I think even if Dems take the senate their majorities will be too small for them to pass the far left agenda and the GOP can rebuild from a stronger place . DeSantis I feel can take the party into a new era as he has done a lot for the environment and moderate the party on issues like healthcare

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?

except Biden is not a left wing populist like Cordray

[OSR stands with Israel]

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.

The difference is the Dems nominated Cuomo instead of Cordray so the swing to the left wont be as much

[OSR stands with Israel]

Uncle Joe Biden is still very active in Democratic politics and cancer research. In fact, the Democratic Party will be likely taking a road traveled by Joe Biden to attract populism. In many ways, the '24 elections will vindicate Biden's retail populism over Obama's intellectual technocracy, as '20 did. Expect Joe to be very happy in 2025. Joe Biden is the unsung hero of this saga.

Near-prescience, perhaps?

If you think about it, Biden pretty much checks off the qualities that TD listed for a realigning President to have: older, extensive experience in elected office, suffered several electoral defeats, and is from the same region as the foreshadowing President (he represented DE obviously in the Senate but is from PA and is culturally Midwestern).

Yes but Biden is not someone who like say Reagan and FDR were  ideologically different than the previous consensus .

[OSR stands with Israel]

One thing to keep in mind about policy realignments and consensus are that usually once big policy changes are put into place , they generally are very hard to unwind.  See FDR's New Deal, LBJs Great Society, Reaganomics, Obamacare for examples of that and I think June 2022 will be when we know if Biden will be a major policy realigner or not.

As for a coalition realignment, I think it will probably happen early next decade when one of two things happen:

- The Rust Belt 3 go the way of Ohio/Iowa while Texas stays a Republican state due to Hispanics continuing to move right in which case Dems will have almost no pathway left to 270

- Republicans continue to collapse with sunbelt suburbanites at a fast rate while Hispanics dont shift much to the right which results in Texas going Dem in which case the GOP has no path to get to 270 either.

If either of these happen, you will see a huge realignment take place during the 2030s.


The worst case scenario could happen though which keeps us on this path for the forseeable future:

- You get a mix of those two to happen in which case Texas becomes what New York was in the Gilded Age and the winner of the state deciding the outcome of every election for the forseeable future




So I think whether we get realignment or not comes down to Texas and to sum it up:

- If Texas stays R or flips D you get a realignment

- If Texas becomes a true swing state you dont