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Author Topic: Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration  (Read 209554 times)
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #975 on: October 25, 2019, 08:43:23 PM »

One can dream.... 


By the way, what does BTM stand for? 

I think first, Trump is now firmly on the path to impeachment/resignation. I think the Bill Taylor testimony was highly detailed and probably has given enough evidence to nail the President on a quid pro quo on the Ukraine matter. The irony, Trump was probably on track to a second term defying BTM before this.

God I hope you're wrong, but you're probably not at this point Tongue

I hope he is wrong about realignment but not about Trump being impeached . The best way for that to happen in my opinion is for the Democrats to narrowly win in 2020 while they fail to take the senate or if they do , take it with Manchin being the deciding vote.

Then in 2024 the Republicans can come back with Haley or DeSantis

They're not events in isolation. A Trump impeachment is part of the realignment process. The underlying factors in both are the same. There's a reason the Republican Party is weakening and has been so since 2008. (It's like, the entire logical chain of BTM from 2017 to 2025).


Between Two Majorities.
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Frodo
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« Reply #976 on: October 26, 2019, 04:28:55 PM »

I think what will probably seal the deal for a President Mike Pence if Trump were impeached and forced to resign either before the end of the year or within the first week of January, would be China's willingness to make a trade deal with him early in the coming year, which would bolster the US economy well ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

Already, they are close:

US and China are close to finalizing some sections of trade deal, US trade representative says
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #977 on: October 27, 2019, 08:34:12 PM »

Trump's followers will be convinced that they have won, and indeed many of Trump's opponents will likely feel that Donald has carried the day as well.

But Trump will never feel like he's won. You have to remember, Trump has a palpable hatred of Barack Obama and everything he accomplished. Even if Trump wins a second term and gets off scot free, he won't feel like he's won until the people (as in, the chatters and the media class) proclaim that he is better than Obama. Until that day, and until he trashes Obamacare, Trump will never feel like a winner. He will carry that animus with him till the day he dies.

Very similar to Nixon's loathing and envy of JFK
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Frodo
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« Reply #978 on: December 15, 2019, 01:17:13 AM »

How is it looking?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #979 on: December 28, 2019, 01:32:54 PM »


To own up to it, the two things I got wrong is polarization and how strong the economy remains. But everything else, I'm pretty comfortable with. The impeachment threat happened (except he's actually impeached and hasn't resigned). I remain skeptical however that he will remain President, although it's a pretty tough prediction to stick by.

That said, Trump will go down as a failure as President. His coalition has failed - now twice - to breach 45-46% (2016 and 2018). Unlike Boris Johnson, there is no swath of white working class liberal voters sufficient enough to outweigh the strength of minorities voting as a bloc, which is the key difference between Britain's 2019 election and ours. Trump's Administration and American politics flows a little difference. While both the US and the UK have ongoing stalemates, Boris broke it with winning the white working class in a nation that's 87% white. We're a 70% white nation with a 30% minority bloc that creates a huge difference. He'd need 70% of whites to reach 49% alone and 20% of minorities to reach 55%. (See here). The 70% is impossible to reach because Clinton and Obama carried the college educated white vote.

Do I think Trump breaks that bloc enough to create a Brexit sized win? No. The GOP is not the Tories (who promoted zero carbon emissions and backed the NHS). Trump is held to the GOP's Reagan-era orthodoxy (which he sticks with since it fills his Cabinet, is most of the GOP in Congress, and his donors). The Tories have substantially changed in the 2010s while the GOP has not.

So, what's holding the GOP together, at this point? I think it's the strong economy allowing orthodoxy and polarization. If you notice 2014 and 2018, the Democrats reached 53-45% in 2018 and the GOP 51-45%. The GOP's highs are consistently lower than the Democratic highs in both Presidential and Congress, implying the GOP coalition is much more shaky. I still contend the GOP coalition is on the road to crackup in the next recession. A lot of the GOP is in place because they think the times are good and they can afford to ignore the drama (which they can for now).
But look at Trump's approval and the GOP's GCB standing - 43-53% and 40-47%. These are terrible numbers in the best economy in 50 years.

That said: Trump's fate is pretty much set as a failed President. Either he goes down to defeat next November and is remembered as a failed one term President or presides over a recession which seals his political legacy akin to W in 2008. Or he somehow resigns. There's the three options. There's no 15 year economic boom inbound. The recessions defined the two Bush Presidencies, and Carter - and Trump's misfortune is that there was no mild recession in 2018 to take the pressure off. Trump, also, notably did not do much in his first term that was substantial.  

I've heard the Trump populists say that this is "just the beginning," but I've rarely seen a political movement begin with a failed Presidency. If you know of one, someone, tell me. If you see a path to a successful Trump two terms that isn't succeeded by a Democrat, let me know.

I think the Democrats continue apace to become the new populist liberal party and I also think that they lose 2020. Bernie and Warren are very much symptomatic of the emerging Democratic coalition taking advantage of the populist chaos that is sweeping the world and reconfiguring coalitions.
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« Reply #980 on: December 28, 2019, 01:48:23 PM »

^Also there is nobody like Jermey Corbyn in the Dem party . Bernie and Warren while left wing are no where near as left as Corbyn . Hell even AOC looks like a centrist compared to Corbyn .

- At this point I think the GOP should set up to groom DeSantis or Hogan for the Presidency in 2024 while secretly throwing Trump/Pence under a bus to save their party from utter disasters in 2022 and 2024.

- If Dems get in with more than 55 senate seats , the filibuster will be abolished and the Dems will pass single payer and many other leftist policies will pass and history has shown time and time again that once government programs are created they are almost impossible to remove . I mean even from
 1980-2008 which was dominated by conservatives for much of that period they barely were able to roll back any parts of the great society .


- So if Trump loses in 2020 I think even if Dems take the senate their majorities will be too small for them to pass the far left agenda and the GOP can rebuild from a stronger place . DeSantis I feel can take the party into a new era as he has done a lot for the environment and moderate the party on issues like healthcare
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Suburban Republican
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« Reply #981 on: December 30, 2019, 02:20:02 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2020, 04:56:39 PM by omelott »

^Also there is nobody like Jermey Corbyn in the Dem party . Bernie and Warren while left wing are no where near as left as Corbyn . Hell even AOC looks like a centrist compared to Corbyn .

- At this point I think the GOP should set up to groom DeSantis or Hogan for the Presidency in 2024 while secretly throwing Trump/Pence under a bus to save their party from utter disasters in 2022 and 2024.

- If Dems get in with more than 55 senate seats , the filibuster will be abolished and the Dems will pass single payer and many other leftist policies will pass and history has shown time and time again that once government programs are created they are almost impossible to remove . I mean even from
 1980-2008 which was dominated by conservatives for much of that period they barely were able to roll back any parts of the great society .


- So if Trump loses in 2020 I think even if Dems take the senate their majorities will be too small for them to pass the far left agenda and the GOP can rebuild from a stronger place . DeSantis I feel can take the party into a new era as he has done a lot for the environment and moderate the party on issues like healthcare

This sounds to me like wishful thinking. I agree that if Democrats win in 2020, the New Democratic president will have a hard time pushing for a progressive agenda, even with a Democratic Senate. But that doesn't mean you should dismiss them as failures. Assuming a recession ensues sometime in the next 2 years, the new Democratic President could take a cue from Roosevelt and use a strong recovery to their advantage, allowing them to make gains in both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms. Assuming they don't run for re-election due to old age (Warren would be 75 and Sanders would be 83), they would effectively set the stage for their Vice President to win in 2024 and fulfill the role of realigning president.

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #982 on: February 18, 2020, 10:26:16 PM »

Now that Trump has been acquitted, I wonder where the state of this timeline is now. And what effects will Michael Bloomberg's candidacy (i.e. his attempt to "buy" the nomination) have on the election? Especially if Bloomberg somehow manages to defeat Sanders?
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Boss_Rahm
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« Reply #983 on: March 15, 2020, 07:57:08 PM »

I'm watching the Democratic debate, and both the candidates and the moderators keep referring to "The Crisis". The resemblance to this timeline is uncanny. If we're living through the crisis right now, are we about to see a realigning election?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #984 on: March 15, 2020, 08:44:38 PM »

This could definitely qualify as a historic crisis.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #985 on: March 16, 2020, 04:32:01 PM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #986 on: March 29, 2020, 04:29:54 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2020, 04:41:09 PM by Chris B »

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

I think you may be right. She's really the only major Democratic office holder that I can see picking up the progressive champion mantle at this point. And she does seem to be positioning herself for another run in 2024, most likely contingent on a Trump reelection or Biden stepping down after one term.

Granted, she's not from the Midwest where TD envisioned the next realigning President coming from, but none of the current Dem governors or senators from here really strike me as plausible fits for that role. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin are possible exceptions, but Brown has likely hurt his progressive cred by coming out against Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal.  While Baldwin has never face a electoral defeat which was one of the other criteria outlined, but she is ideologically close to Sanders and Warren. 

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #987 on: March 29, 2020, 06:06:40 PM »

As far as I can tell, Warren's the realigner. Interesting parallel to Reagan with the switching parties, and of course both of them are quite old.

I think you may be right. She's really the only major Democratic office holder that I can see picking up the progressive champion mantle at this point. And she does seem to be positioning herself for another run in 2024, most likely contingent on a Trump reelection or Biden stepping down after one term.

Granted, she's not from the Midwest where TD envisioned the next realigning President coming from, but none of the current Dem governors or senators from here really strike me as plausible fits for that role. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Baldwin are possible exceptions, but Brown has likely hurt his progressive cred by coming out against Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal.  While Baldwin has never face a electoral defeat which was one of the other criteria outlined, but she is ideologically close to Sanders and Warren. 

Technically, some consider Oklahoma to be part of the Midwest, & sure, that's not where she represents but it's where she's from.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #988 on: April 02, 2020, 05:44:06 PM »

True. I'm sure how important it is for the realigning President TD envisioned to be from the Midwest so maybe its not a big deal that Warren doesn't represent a Midwestern state.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #989 on: May 06, 2020, 05:24:15 PM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

I know this post is almost two months old but I'm having a hard time seeing the whole Covid-19 situation not being the crisis that ushers in a new Democratic majority at this point.

I guess the one issue is that Biden doesn't really fit the mold of a realigning president. I wonder if we  could see a William McKinley/Theodore Roosevelt type of situation where Biden is the one who puts together the electoral coalition while his VP (Warren?) is the one that leaves the mark policy wise. 
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Frodo
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« Reply #990 on: June 03, 2020, 05:45:53 PM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #991 on: June 03, 2020, 06:27:05 PM »

I do find it interesting that Mitch McConnell has raised the idea of state bankruptcy. Makes me think of this TL when I hear it.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #992 on: June 17, 2020, 12:55:40 AM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?
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Computer89
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« Reply #993 on: June 17, 2020, 03:12:21 AM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?

except Biden is not a left wing populist like Cordray
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #994 on: June 17, 2020, 04:55:50 AM »

At this point I wonder whether this TL or the Reagente TL is more likely to become a reality. I do not think either will become a reality starting in 2020 though, since Biden is a bad fit for Cordray and since well, Trump won and not Clinton.

Reagente's does have a decent chance at happening if Biden wins and the GOP wins the Senate though, turning President Biden into a 4 year lame duck that loses reelection to Carlson in 2024 or something.

For this one to happen, Sanders or Warren should have been the Dem nominee.

(yes I know neither will actually happen but it's still fun to speculate whether the future will be on the darkest timeline or the dankest timeline)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #995 on: June 17, 2020, 05:23:41 PM »

Not sure if this is THE crisis, but it could go either way? I'm not sure. I was wrong on impeachment but this is something that's fast moving and exposes the weak GOP coalition. We'll see in a month.

Are you sure now?

@The_Doctor: all of this has to have been it, right?

except Biden is not a left wing populist like Cordray

I meant the crisis, but Idk, he's been co-opting some Bernie/Warren policies recently. Let's see what happens if/when he gets to the White House.
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alancia
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« Reply #996 on: June 18, 2020, 12:53:16 AM »

At this point I wonder whether this TL or the Reagente TL is more likely to become a reality. I do not think either will become a reality starting in 2020 though, since Biden is a bad fit for Cordray and since well, Trump won and not Clinton.

Reagente's does have a decent chance at happening if Biden wins and the GOP wins the Senate though, turning President Biden into a 4 year lame duck that loses reelection to Carlson in 2024 or something.

For this one to happen, Sanders or Warren should have been the Dem nominee.

(yes I know neither will actually happen but it's still fun to speculate whether the future will be on the darkest timeline or the dankest timeline)

Knowing this mortal coil, probably the darkest timeline.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #997 on: July 29, 2020, 03:04:29 PM »

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.
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Computer89
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« Reply #998 on: July 29, 2020, 03:21:57 PM »

Does TD even still post here? I'd be curious to see his thoughts on how the pandemic, recession, and Trump's and the GOP's handling of relate to this timeline.

I mean there are some significant parallels between this timeline and real world events.

The difference is the Dems nominated Cuomo instead of Cordray so the swing to the left wont be as much
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #999 on: August 01, 2020, 02:06:01 PM »

I'm not sure I would agree. It seems inevitable to me that the Democrats will move to the left once the old guard steps down.  Even an establishement candidate like Biden has coopted a lot of progressive proposals.
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