What happened in Wisconsin?

[LLR]

In honor of being the first post on this board, let's discuss the biggest surprise of the night.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

As I predicted, the undecideds were shy Trump. We should have known this was coming when (Marquette?) revealed Trump was up 48-40 in WI one of those days after Comey.

[cinyc]

Milwaukee County, 2012:
Obama   332,438   
Romney   154,924
Net: D+177,514

Milwaukee County, 2016:
Clinton 288,986
Trump 126,091
Net: D+ 162,895

Difference: 14,529

Statewide margin:
Trump 1,409,467
Clinton 1,382,210   

Difference: 27,257


Decreased turnout in Milwaukee County accounts for about half of Trump's margin in the state.

[The Mikado]

Milwaukee County, 2012:
Obama   332,438   
Romney   154,924
Net: D+177,514

Milwaukee County, 2016:
Clinton 288,986
Trump 126,091
Net: D+ 162,895

Difference: 14,529

Statewide margin:
Trump 1,409,467
Clinton 1,382,210   

Difference: 27,257


Decreased turnout in Milwaukee County accounts for about half of Trump's margin in the state.

Is that really decreased turnout, or just higher third party voting?

[cinyc]

Milwaukee County, 2012:
Obama   332,438   
Romney   154,924
Net: D+177,514

Milwaukee County, 2016:
Clinton 288,986
Trump 126,091
Net: D+ 162,895

Difference: 14,529

Statewide margin:
Trump 1,409,467
Clinton 1,382,210   

Difference: 27,257


Decreased turnout in Milwaukee County accounts for about half of Trump's margin in the state.

Is that really decreased turnout, or just higher third party voting?

There was definitely decreased turnout AND increased third-party voting.  Others received 5,214 votes in Milwaukee County in 2012.  13,589 voted for Johnson alone in 2016.  Another 0.5% or so voted for other third parties there in 2016.  But even if you add all of them to the 2016 Milwaukee County totals, turnout was significantly down.  Why?  Likely, African-Americans didn't vote in the same numbers as they did in 2012 when Obama was on the ballot.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Somehow, turnout just fell out among Dem voters. This swept Johnson to victory as well.

[LLR]

There are a bunch of counties in Southern/Western Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and now Trump. Half of the margin might be Milwaukee, but I really want to know what happened in these counties.

[Blair]

I believe I posted a thread about 3 weeks ago after seeing a politico article saying Feingold was in trouble

I believe it was low AA turnout in Milwaukee (could be likely due to Voter ID laws)

[cinyc]

These two maps might explain some of what happened in Wisconsin.  First, the percentage change in turnout by county from 2012-2016 (Note: I'm using the unofficial numbers from CNN, which only include Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein.  Write-ins and other minor candidates are not included, which might dampen 2016 a little bit.  But the relative change in turnout by county is what's important, anyway):


Turnout was down practically everywhere, except for a few counties in western Wisconsin.  But it was especially down in Milwaukee County. 

Next, the numerical change in the R-D margin from 2012 to 2016.  Note that these are in reverse Atlas colors because I usually peg red for increases and blue for decreases in the winner's margin:


The margin in most counties swung to Trump.  Only Dane County (Madison) and the WOW counties in suburban Milwaukee swung toward Clinton.  Trump appears to have made his relative biggest numerical gains in the Green Bay/Fox Valley area of Northeast Wisconsin, along with Milwaukee County and its blue collar southern neighbors, Racine and Kenosha Counties.  Paul Ryan's home county, Rock (Janesville) was also good for Trump, suggesting maybe that the Ryan machine helped Trump's numbers in Wisconsin, too.

[Gass3268]

The WOW counties swinging towards Clinton was the only thing that kept it close. The margin would have looked like Walker's 2014 win if they had voted like normal.

[elcorazon]

voter suppression
misogyny
racism

[Figueira]

There are a bunch of counties in Southern/Western Wisconsin that voted for Obama twice and now Trump. Half of the margin might be Milwaukee, but I really want to know what happened in these counties.

This area which crosses state lines also is the reason Joni Ernst won in 2014. Like most rural white areas, it trended heavily towards the Republicans.

[jaichind]

https://ricochet.com/390097/trumps-victory-in-wisconsin-an-analysis/

Has similar analysis.  It seems that there was a wave for Trump in rural WI.   The old Follette rural Progressive base went over to Trump this election.

[Hnv1]

I think the number of votes in Milwaukee dropped dramatically from 2012, and that surely didn't help

[DavidB.]

voter suppression
misogyny
racism

lol

Dem broken record much?

[elcorazon]

truth to power

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

voter suppression
misogyny
racism

lol

Dem broken record much?

Multiple counties that voted for Obama twice voted for Trump. The explanation must be racism! Hahaha
Just keep calling middle America a bunch of racist deplorables, democrats. I'm sure that will bring those voters back to you. /sarc

[ElectionsGuy]

voter suppression
misogyny
racism

Keep saying it, they'll keep voting Republican.

[Xing]

Clinton took it for granted, and a lot of Democrats in the state didn't show up.

[CatoMinor]

voter suppression
misogyny
racism

This post, more than the point it was trying to make, is a pretty good example of why Democrats lost rust belt votes is mass. Might want to hold off until the West Coast + New York makes up a majority of the Electoral college before willing throwing aside a huge traditional voting bloc just to look like the trendy and cool party.

[ottermax]

I feel like a better question is why did the Democrats lose votes in BOTH Milwaukee among African-Americans AND more rural / small-town regions. Because Democrats need both those voters to win.

[Young Conservative]

Somehow, turnout just fell out among Dem voters. This swept Johnson to victory as well.

Counties flipped too. We cannot ignore the thousands of 2012 Obama voters who voted for Trump in states like Wisconsin especially.

[NOVA Green]

How did Clinton and Trump perform in the Dairy producing regions of Wisconsin (Counties/Precincts)?

I've been noticing a similar pattern in several heavy dairy producing regions of Oregon, but not sure how much of that is just a general collapse of Democratic support in heavily agricultural producing counties in 2016 at large, or an industry specific phenomenon.

Dairy farmers and related dairy processing industries (Cheese, Ice Cream, etc...) traditionally seem to have a history of being a bit more Democratic leaning than some other agricultural industries, likely as a result of New Deal policies that both blended price support and agricultural subsidies for rural producers, (Dairy Cooperatives were common until fairly recently in the US) with food assistance programs for people living in the cities that couldn't afford the price of many food staples back during the Great Depression....

I don't recall either GE Presidential Candidate talking about agricultural issues at all, let alone the dairy industry.

Not sure if it is relevant, but would be interesting to see a map of high volume dairy producing counties and 2008/2012/2016 swings....

[ottermax]

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Clinton and her unbearable hubris happened.