2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some person is saying on the TYT youtube liveshow (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ) that they saw some of the early exits and they showed close races in Colorado and New Hampshire (and I think one more state?), and Trump up in Florida and North Carolina.

They read Drudge, probably?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

7% late deciders is not that small number. Not at all, actually

[Erich Maria Remarque]

7% late deciders is not that small number. Not at all, actually

And apparently alot of them chose Jonhson so...

Eh, no, they don't.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Unfavorability #s:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2016-national-exit-poll-results-analysis/story?id=43368675

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, it looks awful for Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah Clinton almost never did better than Trump in honest and trustworthy in the polls...

Angry Trumpistas don't bother with exit-polls. I hope

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/796115010997063680

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uhhh….that adds up to over 100%. 

Even exit polls are rigged

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Via Steve Kornacki:

Early national exit:

Whites w/ college degree
Trump +1
2012: Romney +14

Whites w/out college degree
Trump +36
2012: Romney +26

Wow! Terrific number for Trump, if black vote is down.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

D+7 electorate on MSNBC

And in 2012?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

For comparison 2012 exits  (when decided to vote)
When Decide
Last few days/last week:9%
In october:11%
In september:9%
Before that:69%

So this year more people decided later

Yep. Why did they say "just" 7% + 5% ...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Racial makeup, per CNN TV:

white 70
black 12
latino 11
asian 4
other race 3

Hey look, the share of the white vote went down 2 points like it always does!  RIP Trump.

Blacks are down by 1%. And Hispanics in TX anc CA are up

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Latino voters -- early exit:

Clinton 65%
Trump 27%

2012:
Obama 71%
Romney 27%

Whaaat?  So blacks is down, and Trump is doing 6% better marginwise with hispanics than Romney.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Via Steve Kornacki:

Early national exit:

Whites w/ college degree
Trump +1
2012: Romney +14

Whites w/out college degree
Trump +36
2012: Romney +26

Wow! Terrific number for Trump, if black vote is down.

How?

Whites with = -13 from 2012
Whites without = +10
net = -3

There is 60% more voting non-educ then col-edu IIRC. And non-educ are concenrated more heavily in battleground states.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

There early exit polls because they dont include the west coast, right?

Do you know how early exit polls looked in 2012?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Exit-polls are very strange.

Trump is doing better marginwise among blacks, hispanics, and likely whites 

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

[Erich Maria Remarque]

That non-college whites margin at R+36 is hard to believe.  If that's somehow not a typo, then we will be up late tonight.

If exit-polls are right and if turnouts among non-col and coll-white are proportionally about the same as 2012, Trump's doing better among Whites than Romney

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

Are early exit-polls that bad?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Woke up now. Time for an interesting night, I guess.
Do we have any indication on what's going on yet?

Reading between the lines, it seems like a narrow Clinton victory, but who knows?

If exit polls are correct, Trump might win EC

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

Are early exit-polls that bad?

Yes.

Do you know how early vs late exit polls looked in 2012?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

From MSNBC:

blacks:
Clinton 87%
Trump 8%
other 5%

latinos:
Clinton 65%
Trump 27%
other 8%

I'm gonna go ahead and bet that Latino number is off by 5 points at least.

Agreed on the topline Latino numbers....  primary language responsiveness gap....

But it was about the same problem in 2012 ?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Practically nothing is reporting, and yea, the CNN map is ugly. I'm thinking about ignoring it entirely.

It's over, folks! Pr. Trump

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump winning Eliott County by a lot.

What it that saying us?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Thanks for explanation about Eliott County.

Eliott County seems to smell Brexit

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Take it with a grain of salt.....but hot damn!

= ~30 has positive. And some has negative, but vote anyway. I mean, even I has negative view on him (personally)

2012? Isn't that near where it was then?

I was told it was D+6

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Party ID comparison (vs 2012)
Dem 37 (-1)
Independent 31 (+2)
Republican 32 (-)


So far the electorate looks
More Liberal (+2)
More Independent (+2)
More non-white (+2)
Less Democratic (-1)