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November 25, 2020, 01:39:32 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12
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Author Topic: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12  (Read 2691 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: November 04, 2016, 07:36:50 PM »

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%

51% say they have already returned their ballot (WA is all mail voting I believe). Among them, Clinton leads 57-35-3-2. Among people that haven't voted yet, Clinton leads 42-41-4-1.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=befe5f60-092c-48e8-b36f-b5ae8e28048e
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 07:38:27 PM »

Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 07:58:01 PM »

Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
I think this is going to be a very bad year for polling.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 08:02:19 PM »

Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
I think this is going to be a very bad year for polling.
Yeah. Like Brexit.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 08:06:21 PM »

Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
I think this is going to be a very bad year for polling.
Yeah. Like Brexit.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 08:15:05 PM »




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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 08:23:25 PM »

What are we trying to Brexit from?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 08:32:40 PM »

It is like Brexit though... One candidate is up all season, and then, a week before Election Day, the polls suddenly tighten. But [fill in the blank]

Wink
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 08:48:21 PM »

i wish brexit would have happened 1 or 2 years earlier, so that we could either watch how fast little britain caved into or how fast it was losing importance after crippling its own economy.

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 10:07:48 PM »

New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2016-11-02

Summary: D: 50%, R: 38%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 10:30:30 PM »

Seems too low, but polls have often understated the eventual Democratic margin in Washington. Hillary should win by at least 15% here.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 11:15:20 PM »

What's this fascination with Brexit? The Brits have had awful polling many times: 1992, 2015, Brexit, others. They can't poll crap, I don't think that American polling has ever been that bad overall.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 02:38:14 AM »

Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
I think this is going to be a very bad year for polling.

Considering probably 80% of the polls we're getting are pure junk, that would be very unsurprising.
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Alcon
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 03:25:07 AM »

I'm actually in the minority here that things Clinton +12 is perfectly possible here in WA.  We have an unusual number of non-college white voters who usually vote Democratic, and our college-educated voters were already so Democratic.  Outside of a few areas, I don't think we have a ton of the sort of white Democratic-leaners Trump might convert, but we also don't have a ton of the sort of Republicans Clinton will, either.  I think +12 might be a little low but it's definitely plausible.
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Alaska2392
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 08:04:32 AM »

I would also imagine that one of two things is happening:

1) People are lying about whether they have already turned in their ballot.

or

2) The sample is not completely representative since we know historically that later arriving ballots tend to be more Democratic.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 08:04:51 AM »

It is like Brexit though... One candidate is up all season, and then, a week before Election Day, the polls suddenly tighten. But [fill in the blank]

Wink

Remain was actually generally ahead until about two weeks prior to the vote, when Leave's poll numbers peaked (although even then some polls still showed a Remain lead). Then most polls in the last few days showed a clear Remain lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
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