McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2

[psychprofessor]

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 92%
Johnson 3%
Clinton 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Midwest: Trump +9
Northeast: Clinton +15
South: Trump +7
West: Clinton +11
under $50k income: Clinton +2
over $50k income: Trump +1
no college degree: Trump +15
college degree: Clinton +18
white: Trump +12
black: Clinton +79
Latino: Clinton +15
white no college degree: Trump +30
white college degree: Clinton +10
age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5
men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +11

Come on, Latino's +15 for Clinton. Latino Decisions has this almost at +60.

[psychprofessor]

They have Latinos at only 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Why are you analysing this post selectively? 12 point lead amongst whites is ok but 15 point deficit with Latinos is not ok.

Yes, because 12 points is reasonable - at most he will have a 15-18 point lead with whites, esp with college educated whites swinging to Clinton. However, no one in their right mind thinks that Hillary will underperform Obama with Latino's...and in fact, Latino Decisions puts her margins at "historic" levels, probably +60.

[psychprofessor]

They have Latinos at only 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Why are you analysing this post selectively? 12 point lead amongst whites is ok but 15 point deficit with Latinos is not ok.

Yes, because 12 points is reasonable - at most he will have a 15-18 point lead with whites, esp with college educated whites swinging to Clinton. However, no one in their right mind thinks that Hillary will underperform Obama with Latino's...and in fact, Latino Decisions puts her margins at "historic" levels, probably +60.

But Whites has much bigger share. 6% of Whites (T+18 as you said) would give extra 70% * 0.06 =5.2%

Latino has about 12%, so 45% (if Clinton +60) would give 12% * 0.45 =5.4%.
And Latino Decision overestimated Obamas margin by 10% points in 2012.

It would cancel out.

They had Obama at 75% in 2012, the exits pegged him at 71. Not bad for gauging a hard to contact group.

This poll has Hillary at 49 with Latino's. That's just not plausible.

[psychprofessor]

Going to be an embarrassing night for pollsters on Tuesday.

Well, at least Fox has one more poll to release to say "hey, we hit the margin."