McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:51:32 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2  (Read 3414 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2016, 05:23:50 PM »
« edited: November 04, 2016, 05:25:33 PM by Castro »

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 44%

Conducted over Nov 1-3.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 05:25:25 PM »

nail-biter-ending.
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:26:16 PM »

It's just like Fox but this will be a close Hillary win.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 05:26:50 PM »


It wont be.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,835


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 05:27:14 PM »

Again, Nov 1-3.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 05:29:11 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.
Logged
EpicHistory
Rookie
**
Posts: 233
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 05:29:56 PM »


And today is November 4th, your point is what exactly?
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:05 PM »

it all comes down to the question if you believe this number:

Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:20 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 05:30:44 PM »

49-34 among Latinos is not likely.
Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:07 PM »

70% of Americans think sexual assault is not illegal.  That's messed up.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:15 PM »


The point is, the 1st in particular was a terrible day for democrat response rates in polls.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:29 PM »

I doubt the race tightened this much. The Obama-Clinton coalition could actually turnout in which she outperforms the polls like 2012. 😉
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,562
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:53 PM »

Not good.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:56 PM »


Huh
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,835


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 05:32:52 PM »


Yeah. They really need to take more care with this.
Logged
PresidentSamTilden
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 507


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 05:34:16 PM »

Logged
john cage bubblegum
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 361


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 05:34:59 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 05:42:32 PM by john cage bubblegum »


They have Latinos at only 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 05:35:06 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Just calculated it, it comes out to an overall Clinton +2 lead.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 05:35:53 PM »

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 92%
Johnson 3%
Clinton 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Midwest: Trump +9
Northeast: Clinton +15
South: Trump +7
West: Clinton +11
under $50k income: Clinton +2
over $50k income: Trump +1
no college degree: Trump +15
college degree: Clinton +18
white: Trump +12
black: Clinton +79
Latino: Clinton +15
white no college degree: Trump +30
white college degree: Clinton +10
age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5
men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +11
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 05:37:31 PM »

Just a reminder that Obama's average lead in national polls was 0.7% right before election day.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 05:38:29 PM »

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 7%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 92%
Johnson 3%
Clinton 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 39%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Midwest: Trump +9
Northeast: Clinton +15
South: Trump +7
West: Clinton +11
under $50k income: Clinton +2
over $50k income: Trump +1
no college degree: Trump +15
college degree: Clinton +18
white: Trump +12
black: Clinton +79
Latino: Clinton +15
white no college degree: Trump +30
white college degree: Clinton +10
age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5
men: Trump +12
women: Clinton +11


Come on, Latino's +15 for Clinton. Latino Decisions has this almost at +60.
Logged
Absolution9
Rookie
**
Posts: 169


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 05:39:45 PM »

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted, Trump winning 45-44 among those that haven't voted yet.

Is that supposed to make sense?

Just calculated it, it comes out to an overall Clinton +2 lead.

The thing I don't get is that this number implies that 8% of all early voters voted third party and that seems way off to me.  I would be shocked if it is more than 2-4% of the early vote.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,835


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:26 PM »


They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.
Logged
m4567
Rookie
**
Posts: 220
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:44 PM »

Just a reminder that Obama's average lead in national polls was 0.7% right before election day.

Thank you.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 13 queries.