What share of the Jewish vote will Trump get?

[King of Kensington]

Thoughts?  I'm going to say 22%.

[Suburbia]

I think close to Bush 2004 levels. I think Trump may surprise some people in Florida, Connecticut, New York. In places like Kew Gardens, Queens and Riverdale, Bronx, Trump could make some inroads. In some places in Southern Florida, he could make inroads.

[Senator Spark]

Bush 2004. 24%

[ApatheticAustrian]

why should any jew vote for trump?

he isn't commited to US allies (provoking orthodox jews) and he is anti-liberal in nearly any possible way (provoking secular jews)

[pbrower2a]

Very low. Jews distrust religious bigotry of any kind, as bigotry against any religion can easily be turned against Jews.

...It is remarkable that when the Jews really controlled Hollywood around 1940 they made a seemingly-unlikely stock hero: the Catholic priest. But Catholics were not yet completely accepted in American life, and there was much garbage out about Catholicism.

Jews might have also wanted to isolate Father Coughlin.   

[Xing]

He'll be lucky to get 20%.

[AndyHogan14]

I think around Bush II (2000) levels. Those that care about Israel will likely be concerned about his past comments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (something like treating them both neutrally or something like that) while secular Jews were never going to vote for him in any large numbers to begin with.

I know it is anecdotal evidence (and therefore it is probably not representative), but none of my Jewish friends are voting for Trump (I know plenty of other people that are) and even when I recently visited Israel, the people I talked to about the election were scared sh**tless about a possible Trump presidency. If I had to make a guess, the GOP will be taking a big step backward with Jewish voters compared to Romney and McCain.

[Suburbia]

Very low. Jews distrust religious bigotry of any kind, as bigotry against any religion can easily be turned against Jews.

...It is remarkable that when the Jews really controlled Hollywood around 1940 they made a seemingly-unlikely stock hero: the Catholic priest. But Catholics were not yet completely accepted in American life, and there was much garbage out about Catholicism.

Jews might have also wanted to isolate Father Coughlin.  

He's not for Palestine, Hamas, etc. I don't understand why some Jews despise him. I can see Riverdale, Bronx making Bronx a little bit competitive.

[Ebsy]

Jews hate Trump.

[Suburbia]

Jews hate Trump.

Not the ones in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Queens. The outerborough types.

[Ebsy]

Jews hate Trump.

Not the ones in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Queens. The outerborough types.

lol

The Hasidim and other ultraorthodox sects will vote unanimously for Clinton, as will the liberal Jews all over New York. You obviously have no idea how these things work.

[eric82oslo]

I think around Bush II (2000) levels. Those that care about Israel will likely be concerned about his past comments on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (something like treating them both neutrally or something like that) while secular Jews were never going to vote for him in any large numbers to begin with.

I know it is anecdotal evidence (and therefore it is probably not representative), but none of my Jewish friends are voting for Trump (I know plenty of other people that are) and even when I recently visited Israel, the people I talked to about the election were scared sh**tless about a possible Trump presidency. If I had to make a guess, the GOP will be taking a big step backward with Jewish voters compared to Romney and McCain.

Romney was close to the perfect candidate for Jewish voters you ever could get on the Republican side, without the obvious exception that he wasn't Jewish himself. Trump is the perfect anti-thesis to Romney. He is basically everything that Romney wasn't and nothing that Romney was. There's just no way that Trump can ever get a higher percentage of the Jewish vote than Romney got. Especially so since Hillary is far more pro-Israel than Obama has ever been. Obama has always tried to be objective towards the two sides, to give as much support to the Palestinians as to the Israelis. Hillary however has never tried to be objective on the subject. Her heart truely and clearly lies on the side of Israel. That alliance might eventually change one day, as it did with her views on equal rights for LGBTIQ citizens, but until then there's no reason to suspect that she won't get tremendous support from Jews living in the US.

[swf541]

Voted Bush 2000, but Dole levels wouldnt shock me

[Erich Maria Remarque]

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Jews are one of the demographic groups that have been trending Republican slowly.  A good deal of this is the fact that, rightly or wrongly, Obama has become suspect on the issue of Israel.

Trump's behavior will be off-putting to some Jews who voted for Romney, but I suspect that will not be as bad as some think.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

19% sounds about right. 2012 was an aberration because first-term Obama had been firmly exposed as not being a friend of Israel, something he bore out in massive fashion in his second (and he still may essentially end the US-Israel relationship unless the next President is willing to withdraw from the UN). However, Hillary still has a decent amount of goodwill with the Jewish community, and Trump's overt religious and racial bigotry has turned off many of the Jewish voters Romney likely got. Trump will probably get the far-right ultra-orthodox Jewish voters (if they vote) and get wiped out beyond that.

[Progressive]

Hopefully none of us

[BoAtlantis]

Very low. Jews distrust religious bigotry of any kind, as bigotry against any religion can easily be turned against Jews.

...It is remarkable that when the Jews really controlled Hollywood around 1940 they made a seemingly-unlikely stock hero: the Catholic priest. But Catholics were not yet completely accepted in American life, and there was much garbage out about Catholicism.

Jews might have also wanted to isolate Father Coughlin.  

He's not for Palestine, Hamas, etc. I don't understand why some Jews despise him. I can see Riverdale, Bronx making Bronx a little bit competitive.

They care little about which party sides more with Israel. They care about the treatment for the poor, women's rights, respect for humanity etc.

Jewish people are highly secular and align closer to agnostic/atheistic people than religious types.

[Absolution9]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

[Ebsy]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

I would assume that you gathered there figures through scientific public polling?

[Absolution9]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

I would assume that you gathered there figures through scientific public polling?

I'm not saying that Jews as a whole will vote that way, just my family/family friends.  My estimate was 60% Trump/40% Clinton for Soviet Jews in general and 25% Trump/75% Clinton for all Jews.  Obviously excluding third party votes.

[BoAtlantis]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

I did notice that younger jewish people are going less and less Democrats and bucking the trend.
Younger blacks and Hispanics are less democratic as well.
Otoh, younger whites are going less and less Republican.

Point being, younger people tend to rebel against older generations' thoughts.

[Absolution9]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

I did notice that younger jewish people are going less and less Democrats and bucking the trend.
Younger blacks and Hispanics are less democratic as well.
Otoh, younger whites are going less and less Republican.

Point being, younger people tend to rebel against older generations' thoughts.

Possible for Jews in general although I haven't noticed that.  In my family/ethnic/immigrant circle its just the opposite.  The older generation is extremely fiscally conservative and pro-Israel so tend to vote Republican.  They associate the Dem party with socialism/communism back in the old country much like Cuban Americans and other Eastern Europeans.  The younger generation is assimilating into college educated -white American- big metro - millennial norms.  Although still probably leans a bit more conservative than average.

[King of Kensington]

I did notice that younger jewish people are going less and less Democrats and bucking the trend.
Younger blacks and Hispanics are less democratic as well.
Otoh, younger whites are going less and less Republican.

Point being, younger people tend to rebel against older generations' thoughts.

The Orthodox population is younger.

[eric82oslo]

Interesting I wonder if this includes Soviet immigrant Jews (like me), probably 90% of my relatives and family friends in my parents and grandparents generation (I'm 29) are voting for Trump, its up from roughly 75% who usually vote rep.  In my generation its probably 33% Trump, 33% Hillary 33% not voting/third party.

That's why I suspect it will be higher than expected - maybe 25%.  The Soviet Jewish population is probably 750K-1M and I have to believe it will be at least 60/40 backing Trump.

Is that because you so strongly support Putin and all the help he has been willing to give Trump because he has constantly been saying for the past 18 months that Putin was his best friend until he wasn't anymore, because he was apparently fed up with the media constantly attacking him for having said that Putin was his best friend?