NH-UMass Lowell: Tied

[Erich Maria Remarque]

"B" pollster


Trump leads in 2-way:
Trump 45%
Clinton 44%


He also lead among RV in 4-way 43 vs  42.


Note that it is relativly old poll, October 28-November 2, 2016, partly before FBI gate. Might be too friendly to Hillary

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?

Yes. I think you're right. But those numbers are probably before reweighting?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You gentlemen appear to be unfamiliar with NH history. Men were 51% of the electorate in 1996 and as recently as 2004.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What are the odds that 4 new polls now show the race tied or Trump ahead in NH are all off and Clinton is still ahead? According to 538, we have two B+, one C+ and one A-.

It seems like the appropriate view is that, at least for right now, she is either down slightly or teetering on the edge in New Hampshire.

That hardly kills her chances, and I don't think she is going to lose the election by any means, but why is there such a wide rejection of these polls? Doesn't it at least signify a worrying trend that there is little time to rectify?

Where have you been?

It has been that way, since I registred here

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Tell me if you see anything wrong here:

10/13 poll: Clinton +6
-Party ID: 44% for Dems and GOP each, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 28% Dems, 27% GOP, 45% Indy

11/3 poll: Tie
-Party ID: 48% GOP, 40% Dems, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 30% GOP, 26% Dems, 44% Indy

The first one completly wrong Party reg (D+1), while the second one a little bit R-friendly. (R+)

It's R+2.8% party reg. But Indis way too big in both.
http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

Where have you been?

It has been that way, since I registred here

I'm talking about these specific NH polls. Please don't take my post and try to turn it into some new part of your unending insults of Atlas and its users.

What is so specific about those polls?
Atlas has always rejected Trump friendly polls. Why would it Atlas make an exception to this ones?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

but now suddenly a painfully opaque letter from Comey that signifies pretty much nothing except that there are some more emails on top of the thousands of emails everyone already knew about, and suddenly the floor drops out? What the heck is that about.

It is not about new emails. It is about old ones. What would happen to Bill's favorability ratings if Monica Lewinsky would by any reasons get to the BREAKING news and stayed there in a week? It would completely unrelated to Bill, but his rating would suffer.

And in this case, it was not completely unrelated to Hillary.




I wounder who is more sad today, Democrats or TN Volunteer