NH-UMass Lowell: Tied
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  NH-UMass Lowell: Tied
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Author Topic: NH-UMass Lowell: Tied  (Read 5563 times)
BoAtlantis
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« on: November 03, 2016, 09:15:07 PM »

https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx

https://www.uml.edu/docs/HIGHLIGHTS-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264689.pdf

https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264691.pdf

Presidential Election Ė Clinton and Trump now tied at 44%
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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 09:15:44 PM »

Finished.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 09:16:39 PM »

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 09:17:01 PM »

Wow. Super close race in NH. Note that Trump is at 44, which is a relatively good number for him considering he has been stuck in the high 30s/low 40s in the other good NH polls.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 09:18:45 PM »

Hopefully this is just some temporary Comey damage.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 09:19:08 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:23:59 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

"B" pollster


Trump leads in 2-way:
Trump 45%
Clinton 44%


He also lead among RV in 4-way 43 vs  42.


Note that it is relativly old poll, October 28-November 2, 2016, partly before FBI gate. Might be too friendly to Hillary Tongue
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 09:19:30 PM »

Hassan +1

Sunnunu +4
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Alaska2392
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 09:21:25 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 09:23:31 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?

Yep, these tied or close to tied polls because of this are nothing more than trash.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 09:23:36 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?

Yes. I think you're right. But those numbers are probably before reweighting?
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Old Man Willow
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 09:25:22 PM »

You gentlemen appear to be unfamiliar with NH history. Men were 51% of the electorate in 1996 and as recently as 2004.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 09:26:12 PM »

Note that it is relativly old poll, October 28-November 2, 2016, partly before FBI gate. Might be too friendly to Hillary Tongue

no, it happened DURING peak comey.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 09:28:41 PM »

You gentlemen appear to be unfamiliar with NH history. Men were 51% of the electorate in 1996 and as recently as 2004.
Embarrassed
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 09:29:34 PM »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton could collapse so completely here of all places.
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Pyro
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 09:29:49 PM »

NH may tip the scale if Florida goes Trump. Worrying for Clinton supporters if this holds.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 09:30:11 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:33:33 PM by Castro »

Tell me if you see anything wrong here:

10/13 poll: Clinton +6
-Party ID: 44% for Dems and GOP each, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 28% Dems, 27% GOP, 45% Indy

11/3 poll: Tie
-Party ID: 48% GOP, 40% Dems, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 30% GOP, 26% Dems, 44% Indy
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JJC
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 09:30:34 PM »

Oh this is lovely. That's what? 4 polls now showing the race at a statistical tie?

This could happen: http://www.270towin.com/maps/gBON2

If it does I'll be in my apocalypse safe bunker.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2016, 09:31:42 PM »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton could collapse so completely here of all places.

NH is a highly elastic state.

Notice all the Johnson voters coming home for Trump.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2016, 09:32:07 PM »

i figure nearly everyone of those NH polls has one little mistake or another but taken together they are REALLY worrisome.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2016, 09:33:37 PM »

No doubt that NH will be interesting to watch come Nov 8th.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2016, 09:33:48 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:35:49 PM by Virginia »

What are the odds that 4 new polls now show the race tied or Trump ahead in NH are all off and Clinton is still ahead? According to 538, we have two B+, one C+ and one A-.

It seems like the appropriate view is that, at least for right now, she is either down slightly or teetering on the edge in New Hampshire.

That hardly kills her chances, and I don't think she is going to lose the election by any means, but why is there such a wide rejection of these polls? Doesn't it at least signify a worrying trend that there is little time to rectify?

She was never down in NH on RCP even through downright awful stretches of her campaign:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html

but now suddenly a painfully opaque letter from Comey that signifies pretty much nothing except that there are some more emails on top of the thousands of emails everyone already knew about, and suddenly the floor drops out? What the heck is that about.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 09:34:05 PM »

Good thing we've replaced NH with NV in the freiwal.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 09:35:32 PM »

What are the odds that 4 new polls now show the race tied or Trump ahead in NH are all off and Clinton is still ahead? According to 538, we have two B+, one C+ and one A-.

It seems like the appropriate view is that, at least for right now, she is either down slightly or teetering on the edge in New Hampshire.

That hardly kills her chances, and I don't think she is going to lose the election by any means, but why is there such a wide rejection of these polls? Doesn't it at least signify a worrying trend that there is little time to rectify?
Where have you been? Tongue

It has been that way, since I registred here Roll Eyes
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 09:36:50 PM »

Good thing we've replaced NH with NV in the freiwal.



What good is a 274 EV freiwal?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 09:36:54 PM »

Where have you been? Tongue

It has been that way, since I registred here Roll Eyes

I'm talking about these specific NH polls. Please don't take my post and try to turn it into some new part of your unending insults of Atlas and its users.
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