NH-UMass Lowell: Tied
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:26:39 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NH-UMass Lowell: Tied
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: NH-UMass Lowell: Tied  (Read 5304 times)
BoAtlantis
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 03, 2016, 09:15:07 PM »

https://www.uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx

https://www.uml.edu/docs/HIGHLIGHTS-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264689.pdf

https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE-NH-GENERAL-20161103_tcm18-264691.pdf

Presidential Election – Clinton and Trump now tied at 44%
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 09:15:44 PM »

Finished.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 09:16:39 PM »

Logged
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 09:17:01 PM »

Wow. Super close race in NH. Note that Trump is at 44, which is a relatively good number for him considering he has been stuck in the high 30s/low 40s in the other good NH polls.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 09:18:45 PM »

Hopefully this is just some temporary Comey damage.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 09:19:08 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:23:59 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

"B" pollster


Trump leads in 2-way:
Trump 45%
Clinton 44%


He also lead among RV in 4-way 43 vs  42.


Note that it is relativly old poll, October 28-November 2, 2016, partly before FBI gate. Might be too friendly to Hillary Tongue
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 09:19:30 PM »

Hassan +1

Sunnunu +4
Logged
Alaska2392
NRS11
Rookie
**
Posts: 85
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 09:21:25 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?
Logged
Southern Delegate matthew27
matthew27
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,668
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 09:23:31 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?

Yep, these tied or close to tied polls because of this are nothing more than trash.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 09:23:36 PM »

Surprised that Clinton can be winning women by 19% in two way and Trump lead men by 16% and somehow Trump ahead.  Isn't it typical for women to be somewhere between 51-52% of electorate?

Yes. I think you're right. But those numbers are probably before reweighting?
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 09:25:22 PM »

You gentlemen appear to be unfamiliar with NH history. Men were 51% of the electorate in 1996 and as recently as 2004.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 09:26:12 PM »

Note that it is relativly old poll, October 28-November 2, 2016, partly before FBI gate. Might be too friendly to Hillary Tongue

no, it happened DURING peak comey.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 09:28:41 PM »

You gentlemen appear to be unfamiliar with NH history. Men were 51% of the electorate in 1996 and as recently as 2004.
Embarrassed
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 09:29:34 PM »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton could collapse so completely here of all places.
Logged
Pyro
PyroTheFox
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,696
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 09:29:49 PM »

NH may tip the scale if Florida goes Trump. Worrying for Clinton supporters if this holds.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 09:30:11 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:33:33 PM by Castro »

Tell me if you see anything wrong here:

10/13 poll: Clinton +6
-Party ID: 44% for Dems and GOP each, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 28% Dems, 27% GOP, 45% Indy

11/3 poll: Tie
-Party ID: 48% GOP, 40% Dems, 12% Indy
-Party Reg: 30% GOP, 26% Dems, 44% Indy
Logged
JJC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 09:30:34 PM »

Oh this is lovely. That's what? 4 polls now showing the race at a statistical tie?

This could happen: http://www.270towin.com/maps/gBON2

If it does I'll be in my apocalypse safe bunker.
Logged
BoAtlantis
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2016, 09:31:42 PM »

I find it hard to believe that Clinton could collapse so completely here of all places.

NH is a highly elastic state.

Notice all the Johnson voters coming home for Trump.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2016, 09:32:07 PM »

i figure nearly everyone of those NH polls has one little mistake or another but taken together they are REALLY worrisome.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2016, 09:33:37 PM »

No doubt that NH will be interesting to watch come Nov 8th.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2016, 09:33:48 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 09:35:49 PM by Virginia »

What are the odds that 4 new polls now show the race tied or Trump ahead in NH are all off and Clinton is still ahead? According to 538, we have two B+, one C+ and one A-.

It seems like the appropriate view is that, at least for right now, she is either down slightly or teetering on the edge in New Hampshire.

That hardly kills her chances, and I don't think she is going to lose the election by any means, but why is there such a wide rejection of these polls? Doesn't it at least signify a worrying trend that there is little time to rectify?

She was never down in NH on RCP even through downright awful stretches of her campaign:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html

but now suddenly a painfully opaque letter from Comey that signifies pretty much nothing except that there are some more emails on top of the thousands of emails everyone already knew about, and suddenly the floor drops out? What the heck is that about.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 09:34:05 PM »

Good thing we've replaced NH with NV in the freiwal.

Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 09:35:32 PM »

What are the odds that 4 new polls now show the race tied or Trump ahead in NH are all off and Clinton is still ahead? According to 538, we have two B+, one C+ and one A-.

It seems like the appropriate view is that, at least for right now, she is either down slightly or teetering on the edge in New Hampshire.

That hardly kills her chances, and I don't think she is going to lose the election by any means, but why is there such a wide rejection of these polls? Doesn't it at least signify a worrying trend that there is little time to rectify?
Where have you been? Tongue

It has been that way, since I registred here Roll Eyes
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 09:36:50 PM »

Good thing we've replaced NH with NV in the freiwal.



What good is a 274 EV freiwal?
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 09:36:54 PM »

Where have you been? Tongue

It has been that way, since I registred here Roll Eyes

I'm talking about these specific NH polls. Please don't take my post and try to turn it into some new part of your unending insults of Atlas and its users.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 13 queries.