6 days out: Who controls the senate?

[Ronnie]

I'm guessing Democrats will take Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Illinois, with no other seats changing hands.  Indiana and New Hampshire are the biggest question marks in my mind right now.

What do you all think?

[Heisenberg]

Maybe I've turned into a pessimist, but I think Democrats take New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and one of North Carolina/Missouri/Nevada(hold). So that's 50D, 50R. Combined with my odds having Clinton above 50% for winning the Presidency, that means Democrats take control (at least until the special election). I hope I'm wrong (obviously).

[Xing]

Democrats have NV/IL/WI in the bag. PA is looking better and better for Democrats, though it's not a done deal just yet. That would put the Democrats at 49 seats. I think that there are four remaining Toss-Ups: IN, MO, NH, and NC. For now, I'll guess that Democrats take two of them and end up with 51.

[Nyvin]

IL, WI, and NV are pretty securely Democratic at this point.

The next most likely to flip is PA, which looks surprisingly good for Dems to take.    I think if nothing else, the Dems, at bare minimum, hold NV and take the other three for +3.

If the national trend goes a bit in their direction, they can flip NH, IN, MO, and NC, in that order of likeliness.   So +7 is "probably" the upper end...with an outside chance of winning FL if things go wonderfully for +8.  

The odds are better than not that the Dems take the Senate, most likely with 51+ seats.

[/]

IL, WI, and NV are pretty securely Democratic at this point.

The next most likely to flip is PA, which looks surprisingly good for Dems to take.    I think if nothing else, the Dems, at bare minimum, hold NV and take the other three for +3.

If the national trend goes a bit in their direction, they can flip NH, MO, and NC, in that order of likeliness.   So +6 is "probably" the upper end...with an outside chance of winning FL if things go wonderfully for +7.  

The odds are better than not that the Dems take the Senate, most likely with 51+ seats.

What about IN?

[Nyvin]

IL, WI, and NV are pretty securely Democratic at this point.

The next most likely to flip is PA, which looks surprisingly good for Dems to take.    I think if nothing else, the Dems, at bare minimum, hold NV and take the other three for +3.

If the national trend goes a bit in their direction, they can flip NH, MO, and NC, in that order of likeliness.   So +6 is "probably" the upper end...with an outside chance of winning FL if things go wonderfully for +7.  

The odds are better than not that the Dems take the Senate, most likely with 51+ seats.

What about IN?

Yep, knew I forgot one...

[Mr. Smith]

With Bayh cratering, the likelihood of a Hagan/Tillis thing occurring again being nil [and 2014 proving that NC's flipping seat has probably changed Class], Kander not quite cutting it, Florida and Ohio being blown [the latter to Bruce Braley levels], and NH uncomfortably close...

R hold, with only IL, WI, and PA flipping.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I think the Democrats are pretty much the favorite at this point.  I have them taking WI, IL, PA, NH, IN, and NC while just falling short in MO.

The top bellweather for me is still PA.

[BuckeyeNut]

Uncomfortably narrow Dem win.

NV should be a hold.
PA, IL, and WI should all be given flips.

That's a total of 51-49.

I expect--perhaps more hope--Dems win 2 of the following 4: IN/MO/NC/NH.

[SWE]

IL, WI, PA, and NV are all Safe D at this point imo. Democrats are only going to have to win  competitive race to control the Senate.

[Young Conservative]

Republican hold.

[Figueira]

The Democrats will probably win Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Nevada will be close but I think it stays Democratic. And I think Hassan is very narrowly favored in New Hampshire.

That brings us to 50/50. I'm currently predicting that Evan Bayh will very narrowly squeeze through--over all, I'd say the Democrats will more likely than not take one of Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri in addition to the ones I mentioned before, giving us a 51-seat majority.

[JMT]

I think Dems retake the Senate. While I have different levels of certainty about each race, I think Dems hold Nevada, and pick up IL, WI, IN, NH, PA, and NC.

Other notes: I think Patrick Murphy makes it pretty close in Florida, enough for Democrats to regret their lack of involvement in the race. I think Rubio will only win by 2 points or so. Also, despite the fact that many view Kander as a better candidate than Ross, I think Kander makes it very close, but falls up short against Blunt, while Ross barely pulls off a win against Burr. I think Missouri will go too strongly for Trump for Kander to ultimately win, while Hillary and Roy Cooper's coattails in NC will pull Ross over the finish line. Also, I think the polls are correct about the Rob Portman win and margin... unfortunately I think Strickland will get crushed despite the fact that he was once considered a solid recruit.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems pick up IL, PA, NH, FL  & WI will give them a 51 seat Majority. IN, MO and NC are pure tossups and Dems can get more.

But Pat Murphy can win it still.

[tmthforu94]

I still think Republicans will maintain control. As I've said all along, it looks like Young will pull it out, and I think Heck pulls it out, giving Republicans a 51-49 majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The electoral map is stacked against Trump and Ayotte, Toomey, Kirk and Johnson are gonna lose as well as Rubio and Joe Heck.  272 map gives Clinton the election and the Senate and SCOTUS.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Democrats gain control by winning Il, Wi, NH, PA, MO

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kirk and one of Toomey and Johnson lose, while we pick up Nevada.  53-47 R.

[DavidB.]

IL and PA are gone. WI has tightened but will be gone too. Then there's the category of total tossups: IN, MO, NV, NH. I expect Democrats to win at least three out of four of these, with Young and Heck seeming to be best placed to hold on to / win a GOP seat. In the tilt R category, Democrats will likely win either NC or FL too (with a possibility of both but also a possibility of neither, so let's say 1). So Dems will win 52-48 or 53-47.

[Figueira]

At this point I'm convinced that whoever wins New Hampshire controls the Senate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Democrats. We will pick up IL, IN, WI, NH and PA. NV won't flip either. MO, NC, OH and FL won't flip, the GOP incumbents will win reelection. So 51-49 majority. For two years.

[Del Tachi]

I'll pick a 50-50 with Dems gaining NH, PA, IL and WI while retaining NV.  GOP narrowly holds NC; MO and IN are bigger GOP wins than expected. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm feeling really good about Blunt, Burr, and Young.  If we can't pull one of Heck, Toomey, Ayotte, Johnson, and Trump over the finish line, we deserve what we get.

[swf541]

Well Dems are going to win at least +3 with PA, IL and WI by the looks of it.  Nevada is looking better.  I think Hassan will pull it off narrowlyand Dems will win one of the following 3 IN, MO or NC (I think MO or NC is the likelier ones depending on the dem ground game in nc)

[Del Tachi]

Here's a list of the competitive seats, arranged by I think they'll fall (Democrat to Republican) on Election Day

Illinois
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Missouri
Indiana
Florida
Arizona
Ohio