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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 5547 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2016, 11:23:47 am »

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Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.
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10 minutes into Lysol, Tidepod, and chill..
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2016, 11:24:16 am »

I would truly believe this if they flipper Florida and Nevada.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2016, 11:24:57 am »

They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:07 am »


It is from the man himself.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:35 am »

Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:45 am »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:05 am »

Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.
Yeah, just looked. 
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:14 am »

And I was talking about their model.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:27 am »

They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.

Lmao!
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Yank2133
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2016, 11:26:54 am »


Which is sh**t, but we knew that already.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2016, 11:27:45 am »

damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2016, 11:27:56 am »


Like, this isn't even a matter of polling outliers. That is just physically impossible to occur.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2016, 11:28:12 am »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
I don't really understand. CNN is too Trumpy, so 538 are adding 1% to him and it lead to hearding?
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mark_twain
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2016, 11:29:18 am »


FL looks very good, considering the favorable early votes for Clinton.

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Yank2133
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2016, 11:30:42 am »

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As expected, Ralston calls bullsh**t.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2016, 11:40:00 am »

Crosstabs can be wonky without affecting the accuracy of the topline, which converges much faster.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2016, 11:42:46 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 11:45:19 am by EliteLX »

15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 8th comes around.

Very big deal.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2016, 11:43:22 am »

Here's the CNN Nevada poll data: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

Anyone see early voting crosstabs?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:20 am »

15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 7th comes around.

Very big deal.
Huh Is it normal? Sounds like way too high to me.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:46 am »

Clinton is going to win NV. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #45 on: November 02, 2016, 11:46:22 am »

This is rich. Apparently the Hispanic sample in the CNN NV poll was too small to list cross-tab data for Clinton vs. Kaine.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #46 on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:45 am »

From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
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bilaps
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« Reply #47 on: November 02, 2016, 11:47:59 am »

clinton hacks accept the result of a poll bbbbut only not one part of poll which is bad for clinton. how surprising.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #48 on: November 02, 2016, 11:48:54 am »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 11:50:32 am by Ozymandias »

Here's the rest of the poll data:

AZ - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relaz2.pdf
FL - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf
PA - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relpa2.pdf

And I'll repost NV here for convenience:

NV - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
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Yank2133
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« Reply #49 on: November 02, 2016, 11:50:04 am »

clinton hacks accept the result of a poll bbbbut only not one part of poll which is bad for clinton. how surprising.

Do you accept the NV result given what we know about the early vote so far?
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