absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/7/1-more-day-we-can-do-this.html

"Total Ballots cast: 6,419,154
Democrats: 2,558.072 (39.85%)
Republicans: 2,470,823 (38.49%)
NPA: 1,390,259 (21.66%)
Total Margin: DEM +1.36%"

"Right now, I think about 67% percent of the likely electorate has voted. Late last week, I predicted 70%, but to be fair, I had it at 9.2m turnout late last week. At that turnout, EV ended up at 69.7%, so that prediction was almost OK. 9.5 million is where I do think it lands – that is roughly 08 level turnout (exact 08 would be 9.55m). Given the sheer numbers of low propensity voters, it could go beyond that, but honestly, I would be surprised (albeit pleasantly)."

"But two things emerged last week. One, this low propensity Hispanic thing became a thing. While Trump folks argued that Trump would turn out low propensity voters, we'd see slight edges for Democrats in this category. What became clear over days last week, this was a Hispanic deal, and as week 2 of early voting took hold, so did this surge. As of Saturday, Democrats had an egde of more than 175K low propensity voters.

Secondly, we began to see the edging upward of NPA voters. I had projected NPA at 21% of the electorate, but it will probably land closer to 23. And it is really diverse, running an average of four points more diverse than the electorate as a whole."

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Those same polls assume AA's make up the same amount of the vote as they did in 2012. This is why Kay Hagan isn't a senator anymore

The NYT/Siena poll has African American vote share in North Carolina down 2 points (23 to 21) and their model still has Clinton winning the state by 1.

It was 22% during EV. They estimate it will be 20% on ED. I'd say Blacks might decide NC.

It is also interesting that among white EV it was just 3% to other. Among white ED it is 6%. Might be important.

[Fusionmunster]

Hillary's not going to lose Michigan because a bunch of people decided to vote in person instead of mailing in there absentee ballot.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Those same polls assume AA's make up the same amount of the vote as they did in 2012. This is why Kay Hagan isn't a senator anymore

The NYT/Siena poll has African American vote share in North Carolina down 2 points (23 to 21) and their model still has Clinton winning the state by 1.

It will be less than even that, Trump will carry NC by a few points especially if Romney carried it against a sitting President. NC will def go Trump for sure.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/this-time-there-really-is-a-hispanic-voter-surge.html

[Sigh144]

Those same polls assume AA's make up the same amount of the vote as they did in 2012. This is why Kay Hagan isn't a senator anymore

The NYT/Siena poll has African American vote share in North Carolina down 2 points (23 to 21) and their model still has Clinton winning the state by 1.

It will be less than even that, Trump will carry NC by a few points especially if Romney carried it against a sitting President. NC will def go Trump for sure.

You keep comparing Trump to Romney as his baseline. It isnt.

Clinton is beating Trump among college educated whites, Romney won this group easily.

They represent a much larger piece of the pie as blacks do.

The unAmerica teapig voter supression may pay off in NC and allow Trump to carry it by a slim margin.

But teapig rats' days are numbered.......the moment Hillary crosses 270 is the moment the supreme court goes liberal. And all your unAmerican scams like voter id, voter supression etc become a 5-4 loss in the supreme court when they're challenged.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Those same polls assume AA's make up the same amount of the vote as they did in 2012. This is why Kay Hagan isn't a senator anymore

The NYT/Siena poll has African American vote share in North Carolina down 2 points (23 to 21) and their model still has Clinton winning the state by 1.

It will be less than even that, Trump will carry NC by a few points especially if Romney carried it against a sitting President. NC will def go Trump for sure.

You keep comparing Trump to Romney as his baseline. It isnt.

Clinton is beating Trump among college educated whites, Romney won this group easily.

They represent a much larger piece of the pie as blacks do.

The unAmerica teapig voter supression may pay off in NC and allow Trump to carry it by a slim margin.

But teapig rats' days are numbered.......the moment Hillary crosses 270 is the moment the supreme court goes liberal. And all your unAmerican scams like voter id, voter supression etc become a 5-4 loss in the supreme court when they're challenged.

Please watch this as the bolded is comical not to make mandatory:

http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=47482

Yes, requiring some type of ID is so UNAMERICAN, give me a break already.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

[GP270watch]

Nearly all the polling shows Trump is doing much worse in the suburbs of Philly than Romney.

[Person Man]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

Yet R turnout is down 2%?

[JerryArkansas]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

Yet R turnout is down 2%?

Don't disrupt his line of thought.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

[BoAtlantis]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

You're insulting your own party?

[ApatheticAustrian]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

So Ohio might be lost to nihilism?

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  3m3 minutes ago
At least 43,220,913 votes have been cast in the presidential election so far, per new @AP data out this afternoon.

[Phony Moderate]

If Clinton loses the election because of NC and MI I could see the democrats pushing for an Australian-style mandatory voting law

I don't think so. These laws are completely ineffective, nobody is going to jail or fine people because they didn't vote. Automatic registration along with soft voter ID, like the West Virginia law, is the way to go.

Actually, this is wrong. These laws are perfectly effective: Australia routinely gets an over 90% turnout. No jail is necessary: small fine, say 20 dollars, administered like a parking ticket, would do the trick admirably.  May countries have been doing it for decades, and it is reasonably easily implemented.

Now, there are other reasons not to want that, but ineffectiveness is not one.

We have mandatory voting laws. That didn't help from seeing participation falling at record lows during the last two decades (just 54% in September 2015).
If people are disgusted with politics then no law can compel them to vote.

Australian turnout rates were, prior to the mandatory voting law being implemented, quite similar to what Greece's are today. But they immediately went up into the 80s/90s and have always stayed there in federal elections.

[izixs]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

So Ohio might be lost to nihilism?

Its improper to only look at absentee numbers in a state with early in person voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Great visual presentation of Florida's early vote by party and day: https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/795694096224583680

[Person Man]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

You're insulting your own party?

He isn't really GOP. I think he is like -6s on his PM.

[CapoteMonster]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

You're insulting your own party?

He isn't really GOP. I think he is like -6s on his PM.

Yeah Vox Populi changed his party image because he lost his bet in 2014.

[JimSharp]

Nearly all the polling shows Trump is doing much worse in the suburbs of Philly than Romney.

My unscientific take:
1) The Philly 'burbs have been watching Trumps act up close for many years now.
2) Women are usually the tipping point demo in the Philly 'burbs
3) Mont/Bucks if filled with women I know/am related to and anecdotally they are PISSED.
I'd expect Reps to do a bit worse than MR in the exurb philly demos. Maybe even Chester.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

So Ohio might be lost to nihilism?

Its improper to only look at absentee numbers in a state with early in person voting.

What izixs said.

Franklin County early in-person vote totals saw an increase of over 20% from 2012.

[win win]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

[Fusionmunster]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

Because dems kept the governorship in 2014.