absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Speed of Sound]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV? 

I'm not sure why it is that Steve doesn't seem to think so/be worried about it. One thing that helps is that more than 2/3rds of all votes will already be in by ED.

[Holmes]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV?  

I think it's hard to say. With the new VBM system, I think some of the reliable GOP e-day vote is voting by mail instead, especially in SW GOP counties, so that's already baked in. Turnout has been lower than the statewide average so far in much of the panhandle however, and they may show up on e-day instead (then again, there aren't many votes in the panhandle relative to southern Florida). So who knows.

[Ozymandias]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV? 

I'm not sure why it is that Steve doesn't seem to think so/be worried about it. One thing that helps is that more than 2/3rds of all votes will already be in by ED.

Also, the low-propensity evidence suggests that Republicans are cannibalizing more of their election-day vote than are Democrats.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV?  

According to the polls, I saw, ED will be less black. But they might be wrong.

[Sigh144]

Is there any data on what the racial makeup of Florida ED voters was in 2012?

[RI]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

Along with Hispanics, American-Indians and suburban women, yes.

Turnout seems to be really, really lagging in Native American-dominated counties. Not sure it'll matter a whole lot, but it is interesting.

[Devout Centrist]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

Along with Hispanics, American-Indians and suburban women, yes.

Turnout seems to be really, really lagging in Native American-dominated counties. Not sure it'll matter a whole lot, but it is interesting.

I think he meant Americans of Indian descent.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/795358638730858496

For everyone nervous about the collapse in Black turnout in North Carolina

2012: It is only 5% Black, but Obama carried it over Romney 69% to 29%, with 3,670 votes cast in the precinct that year.

This year through Friday, November 4 there have already been 4,354 votes cast in early and mail-in voting, a 73.1% turnout of registered voters. Analyzing it by party it's even more stark. Here's the turnout by party:

Democratic 79.7%
Republican 65.0%
Unaffiliated 69.6%*
Libertarian 59.3%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/795358638730858496

For everyone nervous about the collapse in Black turnout in North Carolina

2012: It is only 5% Black, but Obama carried it over Romney 69% to 29%, with 3,670 votes cast in the precinct that year.

This year through Friday, November 4 there have already been 4,354 votes cast in early and mail-in voting, a 73.1% turnout of registered voters. Analyzing it by party it's even more stark. Here's the turnout by party:

Democratic 79.7%
Republican 65.0%
Unaffiliated 69.6%*
Libertarian 59.3%

Tremendous news, but still only one precinct...

[JimSharp]

So Comey "clears" Clinton - but a bit late for much of Colorado.

Am I wrong to worried about the Co demos puling a surprise and going for DT?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Comey "clears" Clinton - but a bit late for much of Colorado.

Am I wrong to worried about the Co demos puling a surprise and going for DT?

There are much more plausible things to worry about, if you wish to worry.

[Sigh144]

Can someone please post updated numbers for Iowa and Colorado?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Colorado is holding strong. Definitely not the one I'm worried about.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795371723222843392

O at Osceola. Look at the energy of the crowd.

[Panda Express]

Can someone please post updated numbers for  Colorado?

Dems have a 7,000 vote lead. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 100,000 ballots.

As of Friday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,340 (371,190)
Republicans  547,775 (475,667)
Independent 429,267 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,553,325 (1,149,745)

Dem turnout up 49%
Rethuglican turnout up 15%
Independent turnout up 48%

Total turnout up 35%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone please post updated numbers for  Colorado?

As of Friday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,340 (371,190)
Republicans  547,775 (475,667)
Independent 429,267 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,553,325 (1,149,745)

Dem turnout up 49%
Rethuglican turnout up 15%
Independent turnout up 48%

Total turnout up 35%

Splendid numbers!

[Ozymandias]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Seriously folks, this should be a red flag.

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Suppression efforts, but they will compensate on ED.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Suppression efforts, but they will compensate on ED.

I'm hoping they will, but just assuming so is wishful thinking.

I wish we had a Ralston/Schale equivalent in NC to clue us in.

[Xing]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

[Sigh144]

I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

[swf541]

I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

[Sigh144]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Great news.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

Ditto. They're simply evil.