absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Erich Maria Remarque]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

This I could see in a worst-case scenario

Worst-case scenario? The biggest polling error (according to RCP) was in 2008. Polls are underestimated Obama by 6%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

In 2012 by 4 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

Right now RCP is showing Trump +2 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

So it is reasonble to assume, that this year it will be about Clinton +2-4%

[Xing]

Democrats are leading the in-person voting in Duval by over 7,000. Republicans have almost the exact same margin in VbM.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting stats out of Georgia:

White: 59.9%
African-American: 27.8%
Hispanic: 1.5%
Other: 2.2%
Unknown: 8.7%

Who are the "unknown" demographically in Georgia? The known white vote is now a tick under 60%

If I remember correctly, Unknown is like 2/3rds non-white.

[Devout Centrist]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

[Desroko]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[The Other Castro]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

Total advance is all votes cast before election day, so mail and in person votes.

[QE]

Does anybody have a county map of Florida that indicates on what date early voting ends for each county? I remember somebody mentioning that many of the smaller counties end early voting before the larger counties (population wise).

[Speed of Sound]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

Yeah, I think that's right. We're already well over the 2012 #s.

[The Other Castro]

Democrats take the edge in Duuuval by 4 votes!

[Maxwell]

so where is Trump doing better than expected if he's not doing that well in Duval? Northern Florida? rural areas?

[Sbane]

While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.

This I could see in a worst-case scenario

I am also looking at polls from California that break down the Inland Empire into it's own region. The Inland Empire (Riverside + San Bernardino counties) is a good model for Nevada. The whites are mostly working class along with a rapidly diversifying population, along with a good chunk of retirees. The polls are showing weakness for Clinton there compared to Obama. That is one of the reasons why polls in California are showing a race similar to 2012. Those polls are showing the Inland Empire as being tied while Obama won there by about 4 in 2012.

In the end Clinton will over perform the polls in California and win by about 28 points and the Inland Empire by about 4, the same as 2012. But the difference between Nevada and the Inland Empire is that the white population in Nevada is much larger, which is why I expect a slight swing to Trump there.

[The Other Castro]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

[Holmes]

so where is Trump doing better than expected if he's not doing that well in Duval? Northern Florida? rural areas?

Turnout is high in SW Florida.

[Desroko]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

Counts are never completed on election night. Compare the 11/6 Georgia advance total of 1.8 on that spreadsheet, to this one on 11/21, which is 1.9. In some states the difference is pretty dramatic.

[Ozymandias]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

The 2012 page looks like it contains numbers at the start of election day in 2012, but not only would there be a lot of ballots received on election day, but some states (I think WA, CA, NY?) allow ballots mailed BY election day to count.

Also, perhaps some states didn't fully report their early vote until after election day.

[The Other Castro]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

[Devout Centrist]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

Or we have YUUUUUGE turnout.

[The Other Castro]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

Or we have YUUUUUGE turnout.

True true

[Ozymandias]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

I think absentee military ballots may also be part of the missing election-day totals:

"In 2012, more than 46 million voters – almost 36% of the total – cast ballots in some manner other than at a traditional polling place on Election Day, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of state and federal election data. That figure includes 23.3 million people who cast civilian or military absentee ballots, 16.9 million who voted early (that is, in person during a specific period leading up to Election Day) and 6.3 million who mailed in their ballots."

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/21/for-many-americans-election-day-is-already-here/

EDIT: Not sure what difference is between civilian absentee ballots and people who mailed in their ballots.

[BoAtlantis]

Daniel A Smith

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 2.27m Democrats Who Have Early Voted

[Desroko]

Hmm I can't seem to find a clear answer on this. The number of votes cast as of right now based on AP data is 41,214,095. The number listed on electproject.org for 2012 "Total 'Advance' ballots Cast (mail and in-person)" is 46,220,922. However, in electproject.org's final 2012 post, it said "Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 32,311,399".

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Anyone know why there are two different numbers? Could the 46,220,922 number be from absentee ballots and information learned after the election?

The 2012 page looks like it contains numbers at the start of election day in 2012, but not only would there be a lot of ballots received on election day, but some states (I think WA, CA, NY?) allow ballots mailed BY election day to count.

Also, perhaps some states didn't fully report their early vote until after election day.

Right. CA and a few others took a few days to complete, which is why there were article on 11/7 calling it an extremely close election.

[Ozymandias]

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 2.26m Republicans

Why don't these numbers add up to anything close to 100%?

[Ozymandias]

Oh I see it's a typo-- he kept the Democratic numbers on the Republican graph.

[Kalimantan]

One state not mentioned at all here is Tennessee. Only Nevada has a higher percentage of the electorate already voted than TN, so how are the demograhcs looking there? Any trends apparent?

[BoAtlantis]

Florida Exclusive: Racial/Ethnic Breakdown by Gender of 1.1m NPAs