absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[MasterJedi]

In my village this is what the voting site says:

In Person Absentee Voting starts October 24 - November 2 from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. & November 3 & 4 from 8 a.m.-5 p.m.

[BoAtlantis]

More FL from Daniel A Smith

As of 5am, % race/ethnic breakdowns of Florida early vote:
Of 2.4m VBM cast:8.2B/13.3/73.5W
Of 2.9m EIP cast: 15.4B/15.0H/64.0W

Statewide, white share of EIP turnout fell Wed-->Thurs, 62.1-->60.8
Hispanic share of EIP turnout roughly the same Wed-->Thurs, ~16.5%

Impact of @POTUS in FL?
Highest # of blacks voted EIP to date...48.5k blacks turned out....
but even slightly more Hispanics, 49.1k

Hispanic early in-person and vote-by-mail ballots cast in Florida has already topped the TOTAL # of EIP & VBM ballots cast by 217k

Hispanic EIP voting in Florida is off the charts...429k have voted in person, up 152% at this time in 2012 #TrumpEffect

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2h2 hours ago
Other growing news re FL 2016 early turnout is that some 50k votes cast by those who registered Oct 1-18 (extended book closing)

[HillOfANight]

So based on those Iowa numbers, why does it look so dire for HRC there? Obama won the state by 92k votes after an EV advantage of 60k. The election day vote shift would have to be substantial.

She's down in polling, so probably losing indies, and needs a huge dem turnout.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

My impression was that her lead was better than 4 years ago? According to this Nevada guy?

Or does he includes big increase of NPA voters that more hispanic&yonger&urban than 2012?

Statewide, white share of EIP turnout fell Wed-->Thurs, 62.1-->60.8
Hispanic share of EIP turnout roughly the same Wed-->Thurs, ~16.5%

How did 2012's demographics of EV? I suppose it was more white?
It is hard to understnad without the context.

[Speed of Sound]

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

My impression was that her lead was better than 4 years ago? According to this Nevada guy?

No clue where those numbers come from. Jon has them, as of this morning:

Statewide: Dems +37,700 (Let's say [TRIGGER WARNING] after the other cows come home, it's 37,000) In 2012 at this time, it was 41,000, and there were 200,000 fewer active voters.

[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive."

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

My impression was that her lead was better than 4 years ago? According to this Nevada guy?

No clue where those numbers come from. Jon has them, as of this morning:

Statewide: Dems +37,700 (Let's say [TRIGGER WARNING] after the other cows come home, it's 37,000) In 2012 at this time, it was 41,000, and there were 200,000 fewer active voters.

Yeah, CNN... Probably they use old data or something.

[Speed of Sound]

I imagine HRC's team believes in NC exactly enough to push hard in it:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Dr. Arch]

Note that unaffiliateds in FL are heavy Hispanic, which can only be good news overall with this humongous spike in turnout of Hispanic voters.

[Kalimantan]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

So clearly these numbers are promising for Republicans, if 2012 figures are truly comparable to 2016. But are they? I'm reading lots of pieces saying that Republicans and white voters are early-voting at record numbers, which is serving to cannabalise their election day vote. And if this is the case, then of course the EV gap between Dem and Rep wil shift towards the Reps.

Is this true? Is the % increase in early voting indeed greater than the % increase in number of registered voters? Are Republicans 'discovering' early-voting this year?

[Devout Centrist]

Note that unaffiliateds in FL are heavy Hispanic, which can only be good news overall with this humongous spike in turnout of Hispanic voters.

The GOP is primed to be triggered by Hugh Mungus. Hugh Mungus Latino turnout!

[alomas]

North Carolina
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Under 22% (21.89%) according to the latest update on official site.

[Lyin' Steve]

Note that unaffiliateds in FL are heavy Hispanic, which can only be good news overall with this humongous spike in turnout of Hispanic voters.

The GOP is primed to be triggered by Hugh Mungus. Hugh Mungus Latino turnout!

She was back at city hall just on Monday for more madness!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89r7LIU94q0

[Ozymandias]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

[dspNY]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

With 60% of the electorate already voting in NV and 50% already voting in NC. The 59/40 was a wider margin than Obama 4 years ago where they found him up 9 with early voters at the end of the EV window

[Dr. Arch]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

[dspNY]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

[Dr. Arch]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

So HRC has a much wider lead going into ED with a similar ground game facing no ground game. Sounds wonderful.

[Devout Centrist]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

So HRC has a much wider lead going into ED with a similar ground game facing no ground game. Sounds wonderful.

And Trump's got no ground game.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

[Dr. Arch]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

[izixs]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

And we still got a few more days of early voting to go!

[Lyin' Steve]

So if their early vote numbers are true, then according to CNN, Hillary will lose the election, and according to PPP, she'll win it.  Which are we to believe?

[Devout Centrist]

So if their early vote numbers are true, then according to CNN, Hillary will lose the election, and according to PPP, she'll win it.  Which are we to believe?

The one without pundits.