FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4 (4-way), OCT. 27-31, C (according to 538)

[afleitch]

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

So not counting the early vote and having probably Trumps best numbers among AA's and Hispanics.

Trumps biggest lead in age cohort is 10 points among 26-35 year olds...

[afleitch]

I need to take a moment here, because I'm starting to get a bit annoyed.

If Trump is winning whites 59-37, he's doing worse than Obama. He's leading by 22 when Romney led by 24.

This poll suggests Clinton is up 43 with AA voters when Obama was up 89. Let me repeat that; she's leading African Americans by 43 when Obama led by 89. She'd leading Latino voters by 17 when Obama led by 21. And she's tied amongst Asian/Other voters when Obama led by 20. The poll also doesn't include early voters

AA voters were 13% of all election voters in 2016. This poll appears to be saying the same thing. The difference between this poll and the 2012 exit polls decreases Clinton's share by 3.5 points and inflates Trump by the same.

So if we accept the results of every other part of this poll, even Clinton falling with Latinos and collapsing with Others and readjust AA voters, then It's Clinton 48.3, Trump 45.1.

[afleitch]

The poll also doesn't include early voters

Evidence? Do you mean that they just dismiss those who already voted? I doubt...

Unless a pollster tells you they are doing it, then don't assume they are.