FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4 (4-way), OCT. 27-31, C (according to 538)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitbll0NGxMTHFuc0U/view

Conducted 10/27-31/16, 1150 LV

Trump 49%
Clinton 45%
Johnson  2%
Stein      1%

Even they have a better history record (C according to 538) than TargetSmart (D), because TargetSmart (D) has NONE

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

JUNK POLL!

[The Other Castro]

Average this Republican poll with TargetSmart, you get Clinton +2. Seems reasonable.

[Speed of Sound]

Throw it into the crap poll stew and give it a good mix. It's all we've got boys.

[Classic Conservative]

I mean like the race percentages seem fine

[Donnie]

FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8 = FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4

The same b***it polls. FL is pure toss-up at this point.

[Speed of Sound]

I mean like the race percentages seem fine

A few things that might be fiddling with this:

1. It's all automated calls. No mention of Spanish.
2. Almost all of the minority margins seem quite low for Clinton. Hard to believe that Latinx are 55-40, Blacks are 68-27, or that Trump is winning "other" at all, much less to do so by 13 points. Seems impossible that all three of those are true.
3. They weighted it to 2012 GE demos, which won't be very close to 2016 demos.

[HillOfANight]

I mean like the race percentages seem fine

A few things that might be fiddling with this:

1. It's all automated calls. No mention of Spanish.
2. Almost all of the minority margins seem quite low for Clinton. Hard to believe that Latinx are 55-40, Blacks are 68-27, or that Trump is winning "other" at all, much less to do so by 13 points. Seems impossible that all three of those are true.
3. They weighted it to 2012 GE demos, which won't be very close to 2016 demos.

It's also based on a list of voters, yet they ask people to self identify their gender, race, etc...

[mark_twain]

At this point, any poll of FL that does not count early votes will be off the mark.

This poll does not seem to count early votes.

The other FL poll, by the way, counts early votes.

[Person Man]

FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8 = FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4

The same b***it polls. FL is pure toss-up at this point.

Take FOUR off both and average them. Yeah. You get Hillary +2. I think this is gonna be teh Donald by 2. They are both really good fits for down there.

The ironic thing is that in Florida, when Trump talks about Mexicans, he is really talking about the Tampa boys that support him.

[peterthlee]

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

[Eraserhead]

I don't think we need to put 538 ratings right into the subject line.

[heatcharger]

I don't think we need to put 538 ratings right into the subject line.

[Speed of Sound]

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

Maybe in Universe Z, but not here in Universe A, no.

[afleitch]

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

So not counting the early vote and having probably Trumps best numbers among AA's and Hispanics.

Trumps biggest lead in age cohort is 10 points among 26-35 year olds...

[Person Man]

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

So not counting the early vote and having probably Trumps best numbers among AA's and Hispanics.

Trumps biggest lead in age cohort is 10 points among 26-35 year olds...

This would be a serious realignment that Trump is able to win Blacks and Youngs. That said, it looks like poop.

[BoAtlantis]

"Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the demographic breakdown of 2012 Florida general election participants."


Why weigh it to 2012 #'s?

[afleitch]

I need to take a moment here, because I'm starting to get a bit annoyed.

If Trump is winning whites 59-37, he's doing worse than Obama. He's leading by 22 when Romney led by 24.

This poll suggests Clinton is up 43 with AA voters when Obama was up 89. Let me repeat that; she's leading African Americans by 43 when Obama led by 89. She'd leading Latino voters by 17 when Obama led by 21. And she's tied amongst Asian/Other voters when Obama led by 20. The poll also doesn't include early voters

AA voters were 13% of all election voters in 2016. This poll appears to be saying the same thing. The difference between this poll and the 2012 exit polls decreases Clinton's share by 3.5 points and inflates Trump by the same.

So if we accept the results of every other part of this poll, even Clinton falling with Latinos and collapsing with Others and readjust AA voters, then It's Clinton 48.3, Trump 45.1.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The poll also doesn't include early voters

Evidence? Do you mean that they just dismiss those who already voted? I doubt...

[afleitch]

The poll also doesn't include early voters

Evidence? Do you mean that they just dismiss those who already voted? I doubt...

Unless a pollster tells you they are doing it, then don't assume they are.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I need to take a moment here, because I'm starting to get a bit annoyed.

If Trump is winning whites 59-37, he's doing worse than Obama. He's leading by 22 when Romney led by 24.

This poll suggests Clinton is up 43 with AA voters when Obama was up 89. Let me repeat that; she's leading African Americans by 43 when Obama led by 89. She'd leading Latino voters by 17 when Obama led by 21. And she's tied amongst Asian/Other voters when Obama led by 20. The poll also doesn't include early voters

AA voters were 13% of all election voters in 2016. This poll appears to be saying the same thing. The difference between this poll and the 2012 exit polls decreases Clinton's share by 3.5 points and inflates Trump by the same.

So if we accept the results of every other part of this poll, even Clinton falling with Latinos and collapsing with Others and readjust AA voters, then It's Clinton 48.3, Trump 45.1.

Trajafar or whatever is a right-wing outfit.  Right-wing outfits are not really concerned with providing any kind of truth but more a narrative and to bully people into how they think. 

[Speed of Sound]

The poll also doesn't include early voters

Evidence? Do you mean that they just dismiss those who already voted? I doubt...

Unless a pollster tells you they are doing it, then don't assume they are.

As usual with LBP modus, he ignored literally everything else you said. Or, to put it in words he can understand:

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Lol, if you believe that they just dismissed EV

[Xing]

Yep, sure Trumpsters, Trump is gonna win FL by 4. Keep telling yourselves that, and the next five days will be just peachy for you.

[Maxwell]

didn't this group say Trump would win Kansas in the primary?