FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4 (4-way), OCT. 27-31, C (according to 538) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 02:24:22 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4 (4-way), OCT. 27-31, C (according to 538) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-Trafalgar Group: Trump+4 (4-way), OCT. 27-31, C (according to 538)  (Read 1562 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


« on: November 02, 2016, 08:35:57 AM »

Throw it into the crap poll stew and give it a good mix. It's all we've got boys.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 08:41:14 AM »


A few things that might be fiddling with this:

1. It's all automated calls. No mention of Spanish.
2. Almost all of the minority margins seem quite low for Clinton. Hard to believe that Latinx are 55-40, Blacks are 68-27, or that Trump is winning "other" at all, much less to do so by 13 points. Seems impossible that all three of those are true.
3. They weighted it to 2012 GE demos, which won't be very close to 2016 demos.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 08:53:37 AM »

In this poll, Hillary is only leading Latinos by 56-39 and black 68-26. Trump wins white 59-37.
(Please deduce, critically, if this truly holds; and I'm not familiar with detailed demographics, so I won't comment much)

Maybe in Universe Z, but not here in Universe A, no.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 10:06:23 AM »

The poll also doesn't include early voters

Evidence? Do you mean that they just dismiss those who already voted? I doubt...

Unless a pollster tells you they are doing it, then don't assume they are.

As usual with LBP modus, he ignored literally everything else you said. Or, to put it in words he can understand: Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 13 queries.