CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31
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  CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31
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Author Topic: CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31  (Read 1875 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: November 01, 2016, 03:47:04 PM »

CA, SUSA, Clinton +21 (4-way) 10/28-31
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/11/01/surveyusa-kpix-5-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-prop-64-marijuana/
https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/survey_usa_president_senate_110116.pdf

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Clinton 56
Trump 35
Johnson 4
Stein 1
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 04:03:41 PM »

I think SUSA is going to have a few letter grades knocked off of their pollster ratings after this cycle.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 04:04:26 PM »

A chance for Trump to hold Orange?
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Mike88
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 04:05:35 PM »

This is why those national polls who have Trump in the lead are not plausible.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 04:08:24 PM »

This is why those national polls who have Trump in the lead are not plausible.

I dunno, though I doubt he's actually leading, there are a bunch of Northeastern States where I expect him to do better than a generic R would but still lose.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 05:12:41 PM »


Hmmm... didn't see anything in the great lovely SUSA crosstabs to suggest that....

Not a big fan of the theory that "demographics are destiny", but even IF Cali is tightening up a little bit, I suspect those shifts are more likely happening in places like the Central Valley, retirees in the Eastern part of the Inland Empire, and parts of rural Northern California.

But yeah, if we extrapolate statewide margins from this one poll and use a universal county swing, then sure OC holds, which there is still a chance that would happen even with Cali going C +25.

Still, the OC of today is not my father's OC, let alone my grandparents OC, and the Trump train is definitely swimming upstream in OC, with an increasingly narrow electoral coalition in basically the only large county in Cali left that still tends to vote Republican....
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 05:19:29 PM »

I would guess that SUSA is, for whatever reason, overstating Trump's "bounce". Note that I'm not saying that they're a bad pollster, but this poll and the NC poll definitely seem quite Trump friendly.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 05:35:59 PM »

New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2016-10-31

Summary: D: 56%, R: 35%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 05:46:18 PM »


Given these results show Clinton doing worse than Obama did in 2008......most definitely. Cheesy
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Mike88
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 05:52:13 PM »

This is why those national polls who have Trump in the lead are not plausible.

I dunno, though I doubt he's actually leading, there are a bunch of Northeastern States where I expect him to do better than a generic R would but still lose.

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 05:55:50 PM »

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.

He's over-preforming in California and New York, especially in the latter according to the last poll we got.
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Mike88
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 06:02:18 PM »

The problem for Trump is that the states who will give Clinton her biggest margins compose around 20% of the vote. To win the popular vote he had to be around 40% in those states, like Bush was in 2004.
Trump can't win the popular vote, he can, however, compete to win the EC vote but even that is very stretched.

He's over-preforming in California and New York, especially in the latter according to the last poll we got.

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2016, 06:07:50 PM »

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.

Lol, wut?

Last poll in New York (Siena) found her ahead by 24%, a 4% drop from Obama's 28% margin. In California, this poll has her at only 21% while Obama's 2008 margin was 24%. So he's actually doing a lot better in both states than recent GOP candidates.
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Mike88
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 06:20:38 PM »

In New York? He's underperforming Romney by 5% according to the latest polls. And California is basically going 60/40 to Clinton, just like in 2008 and 2012.

Lol, wut?

Last poll in New York (Siena) found her ahead by 24%, a 4% drop from Obama's 28% margin. In California, this poll has her at only 21% while Obama's 2008 margin was 24%. So he's actually doing a lot better in both states than recent GOP candidates.

You can tell me that the margins are lower for Clinton than they were for Obama in 2012. That's absolutely true and I recognize that.
But, Trump is polling very, very badly in NY and CA. Romney had an average of 35% and 38% in NY and CA respectively. Trump has 30% in both, that's very low.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 06:32:02 PM »

You can tell me that the margins are lower for Clinton than they were for Obama in 2012. That's absolutely true and I recognize that. But, Trump is polling very, very badly in NY and CA. Romney had an average of 35% and 38% in NY and CA respectively. Trump has 30% in both, that's very low.

Let's look at California, for example. Romney in 2012 got 37% of the vote, while this poll has Trump at 35%. However, Clinton has dropped from Obama's margin by 3%. This means that, proportionally speaking, Trump is actually doing better. I do concede that in terms of raw votes, he's currently down but this is made up for by Clinton being down even more.
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Vega
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 07:04:21 AM »

Weird, the LA Times poll had him leading by 40.
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